Let's go crazy!
Imagine for one second that cycles stopped existing. Imagine for a second that instead of 5-7 years of bull markets & 1-2 years of bear markets, we had complete randomness. What would you do? Would you still want to work in hedge funds/investment banks/brokage firms/etc...
Withouth the cycles, it would complete randomness from one year-to the next. Maybe even Month-to-month. While all that may seem really horrible, I am one to think that it would be good.
For one, people working the stock/bond market would have to develope new & creative products and tools.
Two, all the people who truly love finance & trading would end up staying, while all the other fakers, losers & etc.. would get the pink slip.
And three, it would just be full out fun. :DDD
You don't think the last 5 years have been random?
Not really. It's been kinda same as much it's always beens a few years up, a few down, a correction once in awhile. But imagine how much fun it would be if next year the DJI went to 10,000. Then 20,000 the year after that. I'd be soo much fun. :DDD
Have you completely forgotten that financial markets and economic activity are almost the same thing? Do you realize that complete randomness = economic clusterfuck, and even if you did like finance you might be out of a job anyway?
I like that idea complete economic clusterfuck. Then we'd see some really creative shit when it comes to finance products & tools. :DDD
Wait, so basically what we have now?
This premise of this thread is an incomplete thought.
what if the sky is green
what if we said hello when we meant goodbye and goodbye when we meant hello
Ever read a random walk down wall street?
Those trends are only visible in retrospect; what we have always had is randomness.
I think you're saying "What would happen if the market were extremely mean-reverting on a month-to-month basis?" In which case the answer would be "Everyone would buy during down months and sell during up months, until this mean reversion disappeared and the market resumed its random walk."
This kind of reads like "I was flipping a coin, and one time I got three heads in a row. What if coin flips were truly random, and always alternated between heads and tails?"
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