Lindy Effect
What do y'all think of the Lindy effect? I just found out about it and it's kind of fascinating.
Popularized by Nasim Talib, I think. Basically, the idea is that the longer something has been around, the longer it will exist in the future. Usually talking about ideas or technologies.
What do y'all think? Does this hold true? Any implications for politics, philosophy, investing? Is there anything I'm missing or misunderstanding about the idea?
Lay it on me, curious to hear everyone's thoughts.
e.g., GE has been in the DOW since its inception, and will probably stay there for a long time. The wheel has been around forever, and will likely be a relevant technology far into the future. Older constitutions will probably last longer than one written in 1977.
That sounds like the most self-evident and obvious 'philosophy' I've ever heard
Oh I agree, I just hadn't seen it called out and named
But I also only did two minutes of reading so there may be more to it
Means you haven't actually thought well about it
for those who haven't heard of it - https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf
like most things, there are a lot of examples that prove it to be true and a few exceptions
in my life, the implication is this - I usually don't trust "new" advice. I'd rather read seneca than simon sinek or Thomas Aquinas over Pope Francis, I'd rather have a simple diet using time tested principles like portion control/eating local/limiting processed shit/eating seasonal than try something new like alternative meat or some weird diet. I also don't trust new investment ideas. if something hasn't been through at least 1, ideally 2+, market cycle(s), my clients' money doesn't go into it. this has caused me to miss many IPO gains but has also caused me to avoid blowups.
the lindy concept, the precautionary principle, and more things popularized by NNT have helped my health, my thinking, and my work as an advisor. he is the author I recommend most often because of all of the positive impacts his ideas (which admittedly are not new, he's honest about this though) have had on me.
that said, if you read his twitter, eventually you'll hate him. you must separate Taleb the author from Taleb the tweeter
.
hmm, interesting. if a 4yo could arrive at those same conclusions, why do so many people not conduct themselves in this manner?
also - even if his ideas aren't new or surprising, does that take away from their efficacy? I've read his entire incerto 3x, and while I never "learn" anything, it's helpful. like exercise, you may not learn anything new or do anything new every day, but like exercise, reminding yourself of time tested principles I believe is absolutely good.
thoughts?
I feel like NNT has a lot better ideas than Jordan Peterson.
Both are self-promoting pop philosophers, but NNT has more substance behind the facade.
Interesting stuff... thanks for sharing.
It really just means if you've been there long enough then 1) you usually have become an institution that everyone knows about and you'll never go out of fashion or 2) you've become so entrenched into the system so it's impossible to get rid of you, there are lots of incentives to keep you alive.
In investing, you can maybe say that Warren Buffet brand of value investing is about searching for companies that can do (1). Ie) Coca-Cola, Apple.
For (2), good examples are the Democratic and Republican Parties. So entrenched to the system that it's unimaginable what would it be like without them. Fear of chaos triumphs over want for change in most cases.
But honestly, this such a biased way of thinking about the world. Statistical frequency doesn't mean that it's always true. This kind of thinking shows how shallow your thoughts are.
lol -- are you saying my thoughts are shallow or the general uncritical Lindy devotee?
No saying the kind of thinking I described is a shallow way of looking at the world. It's a vast generalization wrapped around as some "wise" philosophy or some kind of scientific jargon.
Also, seems like you're not quite getting the idea -- maybe my fault for being very broad when I described it.
As with everything else Taleb says (that I've read or heard), this seems like another hack piece of advice masquerading as something deeper and wiser.
Of course things that are older are more likely to survive longer. We've had millenia to find a more efficient invention than the wheel - it's not like "disruption" only started happening in Silicon Valley in the last two decades, people have been tinkering and improving on what exists since the dawn of recorded history. If in 6,000 years, no noe has invented a replacement that either cheaper, easier to maintain, and more efficient, what are the odds it will happen in the near future? Of course it isn't impossible - but it's less likely than finding a replacement for a plane, for example (or a fixed wing plane). With the general disdain on this site for the "softer sciences" it's easy for folks to forget that our lives are a blink in the longer span of human history, and through all that time people have been looking for ways to add meaning or efficiency or anything else to their lives. If a hundred generations couldn't find a better way, that says something.
Monarchies have been around for a long time so they will continue to be around for a long time
Written letters have been around for a long time so they will continue to be around for a long time
Candles (as a light source) have been around for a long time so they will continue to be around for a long time
Or if you prefer most recent things...
Spaceships are not re-usable
Interest rates are always greater than 0%
Human actions don't have an effect on the environment/atmosphere
The internet is a passing fad
I know there's some sort of Lindy online community and it's one of the most passive, defeatist mentality I saw out there. Totally ruined the concept by making it marketable and selling it to upper class professionals unable to get their breakthrough to the top.
Interesting -- which aspects of the mentality were passive/defeatist?
It's basically taking ancient Stoicism and making it palatable to the modern educated in the form of day to day activities branded as ''Lindy walk'', ''Lindy diet'' or similar stuff, The guru of the community is Paul Skallas, you can check him out.
The fundamental message that comes across is: ''are you unhappy with the broader direction of society/your job/your marriage/what you truly value? Well, here's a number of small things you can still enjoy thanks to your status, so that you do not think about flipping the table on whatever is making you unhappy''.
This isn't at all what Stoicism is about, though. The whole point of Stoicism, or one of its selling points, is that it's supposed to impart a measure of humility, and to stop one from assigning value to their life based on the things they have. Not to make someone okay with having less or make people content with mediocrity.
So what you are saying is I should invest in canoe companies; because canoes have been around forever therefore they will continue to exist forever.
I feel like this effect has a lot of mental heuristics that simply make it true in people heads when in reality it is not.
The gasoline engine has been around since the industrial revolution. No way would I look at buying a gasoline powered vehicle in the next 5-10 years.
Books have been around for the last 3000 years. I have a kindle that easily replaces these books today.
It is too arbitrary of a statement to be proved or disproved like all social sciences. Someone cannot perform the scientific method to test this hypothesis; making it have no value in the world of the natural sciences.
I am not saying this and this is not my position.
Why not? From a consumer perspective.
Obviously -- the Lindy idea here would be that it's beneficial to read a physical copy, not that the Kindle doesn't exist...
Yes, social sciences and natural sciences are different. That's not really a mark against the social sciences. You're just dealing in absolutes less than you are in natural sciences. I would argue that knowledge of social sciences is more useful to the average person than knowledge of the natural sciences.
Quos commodi libero id autem vel. Natus corporis provident exercitationem rem id. Libero dolorem itaque non sit aut. Voluptatem ratione asperiores ipsam harum eligendi doloribus.
Iusto autem eligendi molestias est possimus suscipit. Est molestiae voluptates qui sint. Quo unde magni harum non provident et magnam. Dolores dignissimos et itaque tenetur explicabo.
Nemo explicabo omnis consequuntur sunt. Sapiente omnis dolores placeat rerum excepturi quaerat. Exercitationem iusto et deserunt dignissimos qui quaerat sed. Facere tempora aspernatur soluta impedit.
Delectus sunt sunt libero similique est dolores distinctio eos. Quia quia facere voluptatem minus distinctio. Dolor rerum ipsa sed tempora et a. Labore architecto repellendus consequatur earum. Exercitationem dolorum sit consequuntur. Vitae commodi pariatur temporibus. Repellat provident iusto similique debitis sit vel vero.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Doloribus iste eveniet expedita vitae fugit dolor laborum veniam. Sapiente repellat ab ut placeat debitis omnis vel. Ea non voluptatum quibusdam enim assumenda. Aperiam non ipsa minus molestiae aut.
Et qui sequi ipsa minima aut dignissimos facere quae. Hic enim ut neque magnam deserunt commodi consequuntur saepe. Magni quis architecto ipsam magnam nobis debitis.