http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/19/mccain-blasts-putin-in…
Aside from the US backing the Syrian revolution by funneling weapons in through the CIA - destabilizing regimines we don't like via skullduggery is kind of our thing - someone findally called a spade a spade. Putin is a petty tyrant who holds everyone back to glorify himself.. This isn't an anti-Russian thing to say given a large chunk of my family had to leave because of people like him. Personally, I don't understand why the same sort of fanaticism that ushered communism in hasn't been seen in the democratic movements, and I don't understand how Putin hasn't been assassinated yet. I'd like to see Russians put the bottle down for a little while and get their act together.
McCain is easy to make fun of sometimes, largely because he's a thinking person in a party that doesn't really encourage it. But I do like when he takes off his 'politician' hat and talks straight, and I wish he'd be this candid all the time. This is one of those times, and how he does so with a [mostly] calm demeanor impresses me.
The sad reality is that not much is likely to change in Russia any time soon.....that is, until energy prices dip. I'm glad McCain mentioned this. From this perspective, almost everything Russia as a shorting opportunity and timing becomes the only variable. Russia, for all its macho chest thumping, has failed to diversify its economy and is a slave to a resource. Putin thinks that being able to kick someone's ass makes him a good leader, but the reality is that he has outlived his usefulness and it's time for him to go. I'm hoping to make a buck off of his demise.
What say you all?
I really liked the Op Ed but don't know enough about the Russian economy to opine on where it's headed.
The original Op Ed:
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/19-09-2013/125705-McCain_for_pravda_ru…
The links on the sidebar make me think Pravda.Ru columnists maybe don't like America too much. Also pretty amazing how certain both the US and Russia are about Syrian chemical weapons, despite believing completely opposite sides of the story.
Edit: An example of another column on Pravda.Ru:
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/17-09-2013/125685-president…
Yes, that was actually published.
Gazprom, Russia's largest company used to be the largest market cap in the world, now it's trading at 2x P/E compared to 10x P/E for total and chevron. It's one of the most undervalued market in the world, it's able to finance itself in no time. Should we also mention the fact that it has a massive gaz monopoly that is not about to blow up. It's got an extremely strong foreign currency reserve (not a deficit like the US). Taxes are at 13%, unemployment is low. There is a booming middle class, and the consumer sector is developing massively. Heard of X5 and Magnit? What about something closer to home MEGAphone, Yandex, MBT?
And raw resources have still a long way to go, Russia feeds China and Europe. Phosphate, (as soon as they sort out their differences with the BieloRussian) will still be an incredibly valuable resource, you need to eat don't you? Coal, Iron, Gold, Diamonds, etc...
What about Putin? Or should we talk about a president that has the balls to say fuck you to the world police. Shoving it up to France, and allowing Obama to save face in congress and not destroying Syria any further in another US imperial war (or in this case a war on behalf of Qatar and Saudi Arabia). Yea Putin is not perfect, but at least I see the corruption at face value, unlike the US were everything is polluted by interest groups fucking the average middle class citizen in the ass.
Long the market all the way. McCain is an old senile scum bag who still thinks the cold war is going on. Smell the coffee, go to Moscow and witness it yourself, the change the prosperity. The regions are starting to feel it as well, not just the capital anymore. You can find a job in no time over there as it hasn't been gangrened by rampant socialism.
In other words I highly disagree - it's very short sighted to listen to the old argument "oh but when the oil runs out..." A population that is highly educated, a strong economy, natural resources, centrally located can only go up up up.
Bit of a rant, but the "short Russia because well you know, Putin is a bad guy" is a bit of a ridiculous argument.
You are drinking the Kool-aid way too much.
http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2012/results/ Russia is tied for 133rd on the corruption index with the likes of Iran, Kazakhstan, Honduras, Guyana and Comoros.
In other words... shit is about to hit the fan.
Russia (and for that matter, post-Soviet country X) is way more complicated than meets the eye.
My theory about politics in post-Soviet country X is that there is a large segment during that was alive during, and has fond memories of, the USSR: The economy was fairly good (countries like Kyrgyzstan lost most of their export market with dissolution), the regime was fairly stable (there weren't color revolutions that ended up fizzling out), and pensions were taken care of (under Yeltsin, a huge portion of Russia's population lost their pensions - part of Putin's popularity comes from his restoration of pensions, this issue isn't unique to Russia). And then there is a new generation, those who were born after 1985 or so, who have little to no memory of the USSR, but instead likely have memories of turmoil and who want to be more Western. Right now, the former group is the majority, which is why leaders like Putin, Lukashenko, Nazarbayev, and Niyazov are tolerated. I think that when this younger generation comes of age, we will start seeing genuine democratic and economic reforms and not just fizzlestick Color Revolutions.
I think Russia's big problem long term is demographics. They have a terrible birthrate (I forget the technical term) and although that's a problem for any country, it's an especially huge problem in a country that is vast, resource rich, and borders a growth hungry country (ie, China). Long term, this demographic problem will reduce Russia's power, if it is not reversed.
I think that short term, the easiest way to deal with them is through expanded domestic energy production and export of this energy, especially natural gas, to W. Europe. Russia's biggest FP tool is their ability to supply energy (eg, they just bought Kyrgyzstan for $1 with Gazprom's purchase of Kyrgyzgas, and got a whole lot of influence over Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to boot). If W Europe is not as dependent on Russian gas as they are right now, then those countries will have a lot more flexibility in dealing with Russia and will better be able to help us in our affairs with Russia.
/endtreatise
@ duffmt - wow, great find, that's some grade-A propaganda. I'm going to dig around to see what they've said about other presidents and America in general. And people think CNN is bad LOL
@ danin - thanks for the thoughtful reply, I'm in agreeance. Their population demongraphic will soon be like that of MENAs currently is. Given how things are playing out there, I'm guessing that about a decade or so will see some superheated youth rebellion spilling over into a general revolt.
@ disjoint - you're about a decade late. Did you look into Putin's eyes? LOL the more that people sell that point of view, the more pressure is compressed in what's to come. Maybe that's a good thing.
Mate - go on, short it. Put your money where your mouth is.
I am just telling you it's the most undervalued EM - where every catastrophe in the world is priced in. Short term we will see a pull back maybe, but RTS at 2k in 2 years.
Russia gets spat on all the time - duffman, i never said Russia was not corrupt, I said I'd rather know that it is, and no one is hiding it from me. As opposed to the "developed" world were it runs even deeper and much scarier as you don't know where it is. America fuk yea............... On this note market is closed - am heading home, thanks for the laugh.
Putin is a badass. Why you trippin, boo?
Short the largest monopoly in Russia with a P/E of 2? Well, i would say, prepare your anus if you are going to do it.
I'm thinking just look for noise trades on the next energy crisis. Rosneft and the rest aren't going anywhere: their 'fundamentals' of being backed by the gov't guarantee it. But they could easily dip a bunch of points as well as the smaller industry there. It's just an idea, build it out if you like.
@ Flake - you should take his job lulz
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