Practice Metals and Mining Model
Hi guys!
I posted this in the PE/VC forum as well.
I'm steadily learning the basics of the metals and mining industry and was wondering if anyone had any practice / simplified M&M models they wouldn't mind sharing.
Many thanks!
Models for what? It's the same thing like any other business. The model will entail:
There is nothing particularly different about M&M models. Let me know! Do you have any specific questions?
Mining modelling question (Originally Posted: 08/17/2013)
How do you build a DCF model for a mining company? I know that you link the revenue to the tonnage of ore mined, and you link the costs to the total tonnage mined. But if management have have stated their targets for production for the next 3 years and a new mine will be come fully operational after 5 years, how do you project the revenue for the final year when production will double? Doubling revenue doesn't seem like the assumption
Mining companies are typically modeled via NAV similar to oil and gas E&P companies from what I understand.
Both methods are sound from my understanding. Except for the fact that DCF will underestimate the true value of the mine because it doesn't account for the option on mine closing down.
find (or make up) price assumptions for the underlying commodity that you trust. Mining companies often file technical reports for assets prepared by third party industry consultants that provide estimates for long term costs. Canadian and Australian companies typically provide more details in filings than U.S. companies, though if this is a one asset company, a U.S. firm will also provide significant detail to entice funding. Once you've got all that, the NAV analysis should be easy to construct. When estimating what a mine is worth, many look at per unit margins. The underlying commodity price is an obvious reflection of revenue, but most mines have significant fixed costs, so the step up in volumes as the mine reaches full capacity often results in lower per unit costs, meaning margins should expand in a stable price environment at higher output levels. The other thing to keep in mind is whether there are multiple commodities being produced from a single mine (like copper and gold). Often some mining companies will adjust accounting to reflect the secondary commodity as a byproduct that they mark as a credit against costs. For the sake of an NAV, it all works out in calculating cash as revenues in vs. costs out remains the same. Generally, because up front capex costs are high, mining companies don't undertake a project unless the asset supports multiple decades of production, so looking at a mine from an NAV basis is much more helpful over 20 years rather than just 5 because it will take many years to make back the capex and justify the project spend. hope this helps but happy to add more if this is unclear.
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