Nat Gas Engine Adoption?
Found a nat gas car thread but wondering what you guys think about commercial/trucking adoption of nat gas engines for north america. Holding subsidies and risks like frac’ing regs and the infrastructure issue aside, seems like the big questions are the profitability/value of switching, and engine technology, would you agree?
Most research I’ve found says generally the DGE spread vs fixed costs equation isn’t there for almost anyone, but that varies a lot. I don’t think I’ve heard any unbiased source say the value-add of making the switch even reaches parity versus staying with diesel engines for any segment (any trucker at least).
Engine-wise, I read there is a nat gas truck from every major OEM. But also that there’s only a couple companies making the engines if I’m not mistaken, mainly Westport and Cummins trying really hard to market (even funding research firms to hype up nat gas adoption) their new 12L and I think upcoming 15L engine.
It all comes down to baby steps: In the near term do you think there’s potential for any segments, maybe some fixed route truckers, to adopt?
A year ago, I would have said Westport was the way of the future, but under the current administration, I don't see anything happening soon. By the time any approvals for mass production of nat gas engines come through, companies like Tesla will already have a cheap model that gives the Prius a run for its money.
Wait, what approvals are needed for mass production? Or rather, what ADDITIONAL approvals are needed, given that they’re already being produced by Westport, and now Cummins who is going it alone without Westport.
How do you see the current administration impacting this? If you mean by subsidies, how can subsidies be a viable path towards eventual free-market sustainability?
It's not the lack of subsidies for nat gas, it's the presence of them in solar and wind, which have become even more inefficient directly due to the current administration's policies.
I support 0 tax/regulation + 0 subsidies for any sector. Let the market decide producer and consumer surplus.
Also, "way of the future" big picture analysis etc is great, but the bottom line is baby steps there will require it to be profitable/value-adding vs diesel right?
Five years ago, I would have said that NG was going to be a bridge fuel for US transport.
NG adoption may pick up in mass transit vehicles like buses. However, the current consumer trend seems to be indicating a move straight to all-electric vehicles. It is a question about battery technology because the infrastructure for electric vehicles already largely exists.
well, there's some nat gas infrastructure for commercial vehicles...infrastructure isn't THAT big of an obstacle, stations can add nat gas if the demand is there right? but it has to be profitable to be there
I did some research in this area several years ago. If I remember correctly almost any combustible engine can be converted to natural gas. Mostly requires a new carburator and new fuel tank. Downside of natural gas is that it must be stored under something like 2000 pounds of pressure. Propane is similar and can also be used in vehicles. Not difficult to find conversion kits and the tank is only under something like 200 pounds of pressure (picture a BBQ tank).
The power from the engine decreases when using NG or propane, not to mention the hassle of finding places to refuel. Could these options one day be viable? It all depends on the financial comparison. If gasoline costs 8cts per mile to operate but NG is only 1ct per mile, then I suspect a lot of people and companies may considering switching. This is the analysis you need to look into.
I think the infrastructure is less of an issue given fixed route trucking, and eventually if there's more fixed route demand, there could be more stations popping up along the fixed routes to eventually, far in the future, maybe support random rotue or long hauling. That's hwo the theory woudl go at least...
Your second point on profitability- I don’t think it’s as profitable per mile but the research I’ve seen explaining that varies – and that’s’ the key right?
bump, anyone else have thoughts on the potential for nat gas in commercial vehicles?
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