Need a currency trader's opinion....

Fidelity has recently expanded their offerings of converting dollars to foreign currency and I think this might be a good time to go risk on - particularly if the numbers in the US stay strong and people start diversifying out of the dollar. Either way, I think it's a good startegy to have some non-$ denominated exposure and I'd rather use the actually currency versus stock to avoid equity issues like management, etc.

All that crap aside, here are the choices below and I would greatly appreciate someone's opinion on where to throw $5k or $10k to wet my beak. I already have money in my french bank account so I don't need any more Euros.

I was thinking Aussie $???

Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Canadian Dollar
Hong Kong Dollar
Singapore Dollar
British Pound
Euro
Swiss Franc
Swedish Krona
Norwegian Krone
Yen
Mexican Peso

Any guidance would be appreciated!

Comments (23)

 
Feb 3, 2012 - 3:00pm

It depends. Over what time frame will you be buying and how long do you want to hold?

I trade FX strictly on technicals so here goes:

AUDUSD is interesting. You're buying into a good long term tend there (since Jan 2009) and it's pretty strong. If you want to hold over a long period, this is not a bad choice.

The bad part is that you could be buying into a triple top. There has been some resistance at 1.108 level before and has yet to break through. That's not quite a Big Round Number but its close enough to 1.1 to have an effect. The last attempt was in July 2011 and it hasn't got back into that general vicinity until now.

So, I would only be looking at AUDUSD if I was willing to participate in a long term trend and I would look to enter on a retrace back to the 1.108 level after successfully breaking through that since 1.108 will most likely serve as a new level of support.

Of course, do what you want. I am not a CTA and this is not any professional advice.

 
Feb 4, 2012 - 12:21pm

Ok as you already entered in Aud/nzd in a short trade, looking to reach the lowest point in the whole last year i would just add a couple of things:

Once you are in profit below the level 1.2800 move your stoploss a little below, the trend seems going down but we never know when the market will change, this way you will be locking your profits while the trade runs.

Also consider that forex market is one with the highest volatility and moves very fast.

Blanca Arizpe
Momentum Trading Capital
http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=62546917&trk=tab_pro

 
Feb 4, 2012 - 12:34pm

Long USD/JPY is an obvious one. Sell after BOJ intervenes.

Born in hell, forged from suffering, hardened by pain.
 
Feb 5, 2012 - 8:35pm

tyrets:

Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Canadian Dollar
Hong Kong Dollar
Singapore Dollar
British Pound
Euro
Swiss Franc
Swedish Krona
Norwegian Krone
Yen
Mexican Peso

here is a list of currencies. i found them on google. coins are shiny

Moving tonnes of product. Making fat stacks.
 
Feb 5, 2012 - 11:19pm

rynofrowan:
tyrets:

Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Canadian Dollar
Hong Kong Dollar
Singapore Dollar
British Pound
Euro
Swiss Franc
Swedish Krona
Norwegian Krone
Yen
Mexican Peso

here is a list of currencies. i found them on google. coins are shiny

Clearly your intellectual capacity and reading comprehension skills are severely subpar. If your feeble mind actually comprehended the post you would realize those choices are not from google, as you suggested, but are the ones offered to me and other Fidelity customers hence the line in the post "here are the choices..." which followed "Fidelity has recently expanded their offerings of converting dollars to foreign currency..." . Next time you insult someone know where you stand before you wave a flag. Idiot.

 
Feb 7, 2012 - 3:40pm

AUD is a tricky one as someone said above. We're very near the all-time highs so it seems you're a bit late-last December would have yielded you 8%.

USDJPY is a good one when around 75. 75.50 given, be on the bid and ride it up with the BoJ.

Think CAD is a possibility as well, though I'm not as familiar.

 
Feb 8, 2012 - 12:11am

aspiringtrader:
AUD is a tricky one as someone said above. We're very near the all-time highs so it seems you're a bit late-last December would have yielded you 8%.

USDJPY is a good one when around 75. 75.50 given, be on the bid and ride it up with the BoJ.

Think CAD is a possibility as well, though I'm not as familiar.

Thanks for your input. CAD was on my short list too so I'm glad you've given some conviction towards it. I've been hearing a lot of what you mentioned too about the AUD. I've ridden it nicely before, but have been out for a while and noticed it was all-time highs.

 
Feb 7, 2012 - 4:04pm

Don't you need $1M in deposits to even open the account?

"For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry God. Bloody Mary full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now and at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon. Amen."
 
Feb 8, 2012 - 12:17am

tyrets:
duffmt6:
Don't you need $1M in deposits to even open the account?

I believe so, but I'm not entirely sure, to be honest.

Let me further clarify, they give me the option to hold any cash amount I have on deposit in the currencies I've listed. I don't know if they give everyone this option or if it's based upon $AUM. They used to have about six or so currencies, but this past month they've doubled the offerings. When shit was going south hard and the CHF was blowing up I was only able to trade in Swiss equites and the currency ETF as they didn't give the actual currency an option. This was when the Swiss Bank imposed the artificial limit on the CHF/EUD. I went to convert my entire cash into CHF, but then saw it WASN'T an option which I found weird - you would think CHF would be one, but it wasn't. Now it is along with a bunch of others such as the Mexican Peso which is a good trade if you believe in the recovery of the US.

 
Mar 28, 2012 - 9:19pm

Macro Arbitrage:
You guys still long AUD? Haha.

If someone funded the trade with jpy then they are up much more than selling audnzd. audusd has been dead for a couple of weeks now. The only pair that has been moving with any decent momentum is buying usdjpy. Everything else has just been a derivative of that.

And tooting your horn can never lead to good things.

 
Mar 28, 2012 - 7:29pm

Feels like the entire world is short now, we shall see how it plays out. RBA expected to cut within two meetings.

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 
Mar 29, 2012 - 1:52am

short yen!!!!!!!!

Trade of the month?? How about trade of the year. Find a good entry point and short the shit out of it.

And props to whoever can trade AUD on a day-to-day basis... Not something I've mastered certainly, that shit's too volatile...

I don't accept sacrifices and I don't make them. ... If ever the pleasure of one has to be bought by the pain of the other, there better be no trade at all. A trade by which one gains and the other loses is a fraud.
 
Mar 29, 2012 - 1:55am
I don't accept sacrifices and I don't make them. ... If ever the pleasure of one has to be bought by the pain of the other, there better be no trade at all. A trade by which one gains and the other loses is a fraud.
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