need guidance regarding the trading path to choose

reach2me's picture
Rank: Chimp | banana points 9

i am vick working in finance IT for 6 years and trading from last 5 years, Just want to stop by and say hello.
Wanted some advise/help. I will just tell my story and you guys can guide me which way to take of all.

Financial Modeling Course

  • Get An Edge For Your Interviews & Finance Career
  • The Best (and Most Affordable) Financial Modeling Self-study Courses.
  • WSO Members receive a 15% discount

Comments (12)

Oct 11, 2012

Wanted some advise/help. I will just tell my story and you guys can guide me which way to take of all.

Year march 2007 I heard the word commodities and I kept reading around it. Fast forward aril 2008 I opened a live account with let's say 100$. Came the carry trade unfolding and I was left that 100$ to 39.7 $ by end of 2008 it can be safely said I had shot idea what I was doing.

2009 I had a winning streak but I started to get some hang of the things.
Believe it or not 2010 was the year I came to know exactly what I was doing though I lost money.

From 2011 till now I am greatly positive .But I definitely know what I am doingin number terms in last 2 year my drawdown has been only max 8%.

Oct 11, 2012

Just want to say I have seen so far..crude going 160, US dollar going downhill , yen tanking like anything. Now Europe going bust etc etc and I am still positive...

I need to make a decision the points I could come up with the problem is I am on work visa so I need to have job while staying in this country.

I just want to be a trader and down the line want to open my own hedge fund that's all....just need some direction...

Oct 11, 2012

Sorry for breakage between the reply it seems some words were triggering spam filter so had to breakdown in forum...

Oct 10, 2012

with those kind of results u should stay at home and be a day trader..

yen has not tanked...its up~50% last 5 years

if i let my dog pick my stocks during 2010/2011 i would've outperformed u

Oct 11, 2012
backtofront:

with those kind of results u should stay at home and be a day trader..

yen has not tanked...its up~50% last 5 years

if i let my dog pick my stocks during 2010/2011 i would've outperformed u

i would just ignore this... i know yen and made most % on 2011 because of it ...and you think making 80% in around 4 years is really bad return?

Learn More

Side-by-side comparison of top modeling training courses + exclusive discount through WSO here.

Oct 10, 2012

i think ur retardedness is what should be ignored...

first of all, you know the yen and made money out of it, right? goto yahoo finance and type USDJPY=X in stock quote:

this is quoted JPY per USD...if you are purchasing fewer and fewer yen with the same dollar...ur telling me that the JPY is tanking? Jan 1 2011 JPY was at $81.14 to end the year at $76.94. that is a ~5.5% gain for the yen...far from "tanking". over the past 5 years the yen has strengthened by over 45%. while for u JPY was "tanking" the entire world was watching Japan in Q1 since the strengthening got so bad it was threatening Japanese exports...leading them to intervene in their currency which led to a brief depreciation only to strengthen to levels similar to what it was before the intervention.....looks like u didnt hear the word "currency" as clearly as you heard "commodities" to read into it further.

Oct 10, 2012

to prove my second point, i asked a co worker to give me the first company he could think of that starts with A B and C - completely random and had no idea what i was doing - he chose apple, boeing and citi.

in 2009 the SP500 gained 23.5%, my portfolio gained 52.7% and ur portfolio (referred to as "Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking") gained 49.0% - as GG put it - "i bet u spent all night analyzing that dog shit stock". 3 random companies that start with A, B, C beat u in 2009.

in 2010 Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking LOST!! I repeat! LOST!! a whopping -35.9% when doing no thinking and putting ur money in the index wouldve made u 12.78% and choosing 3 companies that start with random letters wouldve made u 46.03%! so much for stock picking!

in 2011 i lost! by a lot!!! my portfolio wouldve still made 16% while the SP500 had a 0% return and the Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking fund wouldve gained 300%+! this is probably whats making u think u can eventually run a hedge fund...but come on...without knowing the difference between currency app/dep? i smell luck!

in 2012: see what i mean by luck? ur returns are in line with what the sp500 returned YTD - ~14%. whilst my fund wouldve returned 47.9%. from 2009-2012, total return for the Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking fund gained 350% - my fund gained a total 283%...i'll leave the cost-benefit to u.

so u think ur smart and u think posting about it for everyone to see was going to impress the hell out of everyone (at this point i wont even talk about JPY "tanking") but guess what? u lost a heck of a lot more when the SP500 was actually up in one of the years, had almost the same return YTD in 2012 and your only 'good' year was in 2011 when u made ~300% - basically the funds entire return over the 3-4 years. my fund which probably wouldve taken a hell of a lot less time and stress to build outperformed the spx benchmark 30%+ consistently in all years except in 2011 when it beat the index by 16%.

if ur fund were real and the spx index beat u by 45% (-35% on ur fund vs 10% gain on SPX in 2010) your ass wouldve been redeemed, there wouldnt have been 2011, and you'd be left day trading from home - i doubt theyd even think of investing in your fund if they found out that the manager didnt know his currencies...

to conclude! no, 80% in 4 years isnt bad by itself - but when u consider the volatility in ur returns, the fact that a bunch of stocks randomly picked by a dog (my co worker is a FRESH first year analyst currently on his third all nighter in a row) could beat u in 3 out of 4 years, and the fact that u actually posted ur results here thinking u were going to get props for it is a waste of time - u are NOT special and u shd stop talking as if you've accomplished something / know something. before u even think of running a hedge fund (and replying to this post with some level of intelligence) here is a list of things u should do for homework:

  • learn FX rate conventions / quotations and what it means for something to depreciate
  • read "Treynor measure" - ur return over 2009-2012 beat mine. but at MUCH higher volatility. the beta on ur portfolio vs. the consistency of my returns and similar total return measures at the end of the day may actually mean my portfolio is preferred when u take volatility into account. even if it isnt - "i bet u spent all night analyzing that dog shit stock"
Oct 11, 2012
backtofront:

to prove my second point, i asked a co worker to give me the first company he could think of that starts with A B and C - completely random and had no idea what i was doing - he chose apple, boeing and citi.

in 2009 the SP500 gained 23.5%, my portfolio gained 52.7% and ur portfolio (referred to as "Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking") gained 49.0% - as GG put it - "i bet u spent all night analyzing that dog shit stock". 3 random companies that start with A, B, C beat u in 2009.

in 2010 Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking LOST!! I repeat! LOST!! a whopping -35.9% when doing no thinking and putting ur money in the index wouldve made u 12.78% and choosing 3 companies that start with random letters wouldve made u 46.03%! so much for stock picking!

in 2011 i lost! by a lot!!! my portfolio wouldve still made 16% while the SP500 had a 0% return and the Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking fund wouldve gained 300%+! this is probably whats making u think u can eventually run a hedge fund...but come on...without knowing the difference between currency app/dep? i smell luck!

in 2012: see what i mean by luck? ur returns are in line with what the sp500 returned YTD - ~14%. whilst my fund wouldve returned 47.9%. from 2009-2012, total return for the Genius Portfolio with JPY Tanking fund gained 350% - my fund gained a total 283%...i'll leave the cost-benefit to u.

so u think ur smart and u think posting about it for everyone to see was going to impress the hell out of everyone (at this point i wont even talk about JPY "tanking") but guess what? u lost a heck of a lot more when the SP500 was actually up in one of the years, had almost the same return YTD in 2012 and your only 'good' year was in 2011 when u made ~300% - basically the funds entire return over the 3-4 years. my fund which probably wouldve taken a hell of a lot less time and stress to build outperformed the spx benchmark 30%+ consistently in all years except in 2011 when it beat the index by 16%.

if ur fund were real and the spx index beat u by 45% (-35% on ur fund vs 10% gain on SPX in 2010) your ass wouldve been redeemed, there wouldnt have been 2011, and you'd be left day trading from home - i doubt theyd even think of investing in your fund if they found out that the manager didnt know his currencies...

to conclude! no, 80% in 4 years isnt bad by itself - but when u consider the volatility in ur returns, the fact that a bunch of stocks randomly picked by a dog (my co worker is a FRESH first year analyst currently on his third all nighter in a row) could beat u in 3 out of 4 years, and the fact that u actually posted ur results here thinking u were going to get props for it is a waste of time - u are NOT special and u shd stop talking as if you've accomplished something / know something. before u even think of running a hedge fund (and replying to this post with some level of intelligence) here is a list of things u should do for homework:

  • learn FX rate conventions / quotations and what it means for something to depreciate
  • read "Treynor measure" - ur return over 2009-2012 beat mine. but at MUCH higher volatility. the beta on ur portfolio vs. the consistency of my returns and similar total return measures at the end of the day may actually mean my portfolio is preferred when u take volatility into account. even if it isnt - "i bet u spent all night analyzing that dog shit stock"

Wow man you have already made everything up from certain thing I bet you think winning in this game needs high alpha ...your post made me laugh ten make me angry ..

I am just looking for some direction and regarding you my friend the market will teach you lesson better then anyone and it might be soon coming

The results were to show how I less I know ... I bet you don't communicate you talk

Btw guys showing return to impress anyone is not what I wanted but way some help in certin direction that how should I proceed further ..

Not going in any more negativity I humbly want to ask for directional help that all

Oct 10, 2012

also feel free to PM if ud like an Excel back up :)

Oct 11, 2012

For above guy I deleted the returns table ..

Oct 10, 2012

I gave u ur direction! Do ur homework! And now its apparent u need to take english classes as well!

I'm not trying to beat u with alpha either - btw, alpha is a risk adjusted measure - our portfolios wouldve had much higher risk than the index. I was demonstrating the fact that both of our returns aren't special.

No need for u to tell me that the market will teach me a lesson as I have no intention on going to buy side but hopefully it taught u one!

Oct 11, 2012