Next "hot" hedge fund?

In 2006 Paulson & Co. was just another merger arbitrage fund with about $700 million AUM. John Paulson was more known for throwing sick parties in his soho loft than his investing prowess. And his right-hand man, Paolo Pellegrini, was considered unemployable by all the major financial firms and spent his free time fantasizing about living the "high" life in NYC. He had to beg Paulson to hire him and worked for an analyst salary.

Fast forward to today, and we all know the story. Paulson & Co. has about $20 billion AUM, and Paulson is now a billionaire. Pellegrini is quite wealthy too. Someone who joined Paulson before 2007 got insanely lucky, to say the least. Ditto for joining SAC or Citadel in the early to mid-90's.

What are some hedge funds that are currently not well-known but have the potential to be the next mega success story like Paulson? I used to think clarium had potential, but they're imploding.

 
creditderivatives:
Haha, dont confuse "FXTrading" with "FXTrader"

Didn't know there was someone with a similar name. Change may be a good thing.

 
Best Response

I don't know much about hedge funds, but rumor has it this "Google" thing is going to be huge.

Seriously, I don't think there is much to answer with the question you posed. If someone had and idea of what the next big HF could be they likely wouldn't tell you because they wouldn't want to. Not to mention most people would have very little insight into how that HF could become huge unless they happened to intern/work there, at which point they probably wouldn't be on the internet talking about their previous (or current) employers trading strategies/focus.

Regards

"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant, it's just that they know so much that isn't so." - Ronald Reagan
 
Brown_Bateman:
Predicting next "huge" HF = predicting which asset class someone will make a killing on = predicting future market moves = God

Bingo.

Paulson wasn't insanely successful because he had hired a bunch of quants and nobel prize economists i.e. LTCM. Everyone in the mid 90s thought that LTCM was the shit and would continue to be the hottest HF for years. Well they guessed wrong and blew up. Leverage is a two way street.

HFs that have crushed it have done so because they were in the right place at the right time. Call it skill or luck but Paulson, Burry, et al who shorted the subprime housing market timed it pretty damn perfectly. Look at David Tepper also, his fund piled money into US financials last year at the perfect time.

 
kingtut:
Brown_Bateman:
Predicting next "huge" HF = predicting which asset class someone will make a killing on = predicting future market moves = God

Bingo.

Paulson wasn't insanely successful because he had hired a bunch of quants and nobel prize economists i.e. LTCM. Everyone in the mid 90s thought that LTCM was the shit and would continue to be the hottest HF for years. Well they guessed wrong and blew up. Leverage is a two way street.

HFs that have crushed it have done so because they were in the right place at the right time. Call it skill or luck but Paulson, Burry, et al who shorted the subprime housing market timed it pretty damn perfectly. Look at David Tepper also, his fund piled money into US financials last year at the perfect time.

Exactly right. There were funds who did the exact same analysis but went short too early who got burned; Julian Robertson used to be the biggest name on the street, but I doubt half the kids on this board even know who he is, because he went short tech too early in the 90's.

 

I think Arvind Raghunathan's Roc Capital has the potential to be a very large manager. They have been gaining AUM and putting up good performance numbers. Although, I don't think they will be able to pull-off a Paulson-esque homerun. Well maybe if Goldman helped? http://www.hedgetracker.com/fund/Roc-Capital-Management-LP Perella Weinberg Partners is slowly emerging as a major player in the space. Since they have a diversified platform across multiple investment teams, one of their managers could take off? http://www.hedgetracker.com/fund/Perella-Weinberg-Partners

 

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