NFL Predictions Thread - Playoffs, Super Bowl, MVP, trash talk

disclaimer - I'm a Packers fan so nothing nice will be said about Minnesota, Chicago, or Russell Wilson herein. there you go, there's my bias.

 

Playoffs - do you expect the field to shift from where it is today?

AFC - KC, PIT, BUF, TEN, CLE, MIA, IND

NFC - NO, GB, LAR, NYG, SEA, TB, MIN

AFC-wise, I think the only changes could be in the East or South, I think KC and PIT hold the West and North respectively. I have a hard time believing Miami can't fuck something up, and I trust Tannehill deep in the season as much as I trust Jordan Belfort. 

NFC-wise, I think the biggest story could be what direction do the Cardinals go from here. will they continue their losing ways or will they right the ship and potentially kick out TB or MIN from the playoffs. I'm going with yes, but I don't know who to bet against: Tom Brady or Dalvin Cook, neither is normally a good option.

 

Super Bowl - who goes, who wins, and why?

AFC - I'm going with Pittsburgh. repeats are incredibly uncommon and it's not generally a good idea to bet against an undefeated team with the #1 defense in the NFL. Mahomes is going to give them a run for their money in the AFC conference championship and could very well thread the needle on a throw to Hill, but some of his wins have raised an eyebrow with me and in the biggest game of all with two very good offenses, I think defense wins here. PIT over KC, 31-21

NFC - did you really think I'm picking against the Packers? don't get me wrong, the seahawks are dangerous and have a good record against GB. if Minnesota hangs onto the 7 seed there's a real possibility Dalvin Cook runs down our throat again in the first round, and regardless of if it's Brees or Hill, the Saints have a good defense and know how to put up points. HOWEVER, none of those teams have the triumvirate of Rodgers/Adams/Jones. Rodgers is in MVP territory, Adams already has 1,000 yards even after missing a couple games, and Jones is having a year that's nearly as good as Alvin Kamara and is arguably the best RB in the NFC not named Dalvin Cook. as good as our offense is and the fact we're 9-3 already going through the toughest games on our schedule bodes well for us potentially getting the #1 seed and beating the Saints in Lambeau for the title game. GB over NO 42-37

Super Bowl Champ - as much as I love Rodgers. As much as I trust that he's a magician and that Davante is a top 3 receiver in the league without the recognition, if you watch the past couple of games, if the ball is not in Davante or Jones's hands, it's dicey. there were more than a few throws against MIN, PHI, and IND that should've been caught but went down as incomplete (not because of Rodgers), and in the biggest game of all, that kinda shit can turn the tide one way or the other. I think Pittsburgh double teams Adams and much like New England has done to so many, takes away our best weapon while holding Jones to a reasonable running output. PIT over GB in a heartbreaker, 27-21

 

MVP - who you got?

my MVP is Rodgers for sure, but I think Mahomes gets it. he's putting up such monstrous numbers and has a better record than Aaron in a better, tougher conference. I think while Aaron deserves it, much like the State Farm commercials, he'll be 2nd fiddle to Mahomes.

 

Trash talk - air it out! talk some shit! 

LOL 49ers! I am purely enjoying this because of how badly GB got stomped by them twice last year, so sucks to suck guys. way to have another Kaepernick experience where you almost go all the way and then are in the doghouse the next year. 

Jets, prayers up that you don't ruin Trevor Lawrence, but when you have Adam Gase and Leveon Bell on your payroll, why would you expect anything good to happen? I recommend scorched earth. Shane Falco from the replacements would even be a welcome change

Seattle, how you have a transformer of a human being in Metcalf, a 7-time probowl super bowl champ quarterback with the same head coach and you're losing to the fuckin giants is beyond me. all I can say is I have shed no tears for Seattle this year, and I'm still bitter about the touchdown/interception replacement ref fiasco

what do you all say? let's get some fun banter going, tagging a few users who've frequented past football threads

Lloyd BIankfein AndyLouis adapt or die RobberBaron123 BobTheBaker TheDiplomats Billion with a B and sorry in advance for the Niners comments Synergy_or_Syzygy 

Comments (57)

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 12:57pm

KC is going to win it again because Mahomes is the best player in the NFL. Roethlisberger is good but Mahomes is much better.  

All of a sudden I am a football fan this year.  When Barkley got hurt, I thought the season ended and it probably should have.  You have to tip your cap to winning four in a row including a win in Seattle.  They do not have much of an offense, although their runners have been very effective lately.  The offensive line must be doing a great job.  Daniel Jones is a terrific QB.  Dude can throw and run with the best of them. Imagine if he had great players to throw to.   For a while, he was the Giants leading rusher this year  He has made some mistakes but he has the tools to be a very effective QB

http://www.series65examtutor.com
 
Dec 7, 2020 - 3:34pm

I agree wirh your assessment that Pat Mahomes is legendary. However, I will never pick a team in the NFL to repeat. Something bad always happens. Even New England hasn't been able to repeat in recent memory. 

Array

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 10:16pm

Likewise, two storied franchises with great history. I personally don't think the Steelers are nearly as good as their record, but at full health, the defense was downright nasty. I haven't followed the NFC as closely, but from what I've seen, GB has a great shot - rematch would be awesome. 

Even as a Steelers' fan, I know a few Bills' fans and I would love to see them win the big one. 

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 3:18pm

I don't know what's going on in the NFL this year. My Eagles have been a total letdown and I cannot believe the lengths people are going to to point out the obvious that Caron Wentz has been bad this year. I just want the Eagles organization to figure it out, because the team has been a problem since 2018 after the super bowl when players were breaking down and we had a coach drain. Howie's done a poor job of fixing those realities and we saw it in the past two years, but now it's totally undeniable.

 

I like Pittsburgh, because I'm bullish good teams with a solid pass rush. But the AFC is very good all of a sudden in the year Tom Brady decides to leave. And, so it really can go anyway. People sort of sleep on CLE, but they're a much more well run organization than they're given credit and I think TEN is the same way, with MIA really starting to emerge kind of late through this season. I think there are too many good AFC teams this year for it not to be an AFC team holding up the Lombardi when it's all said and done.

I can get behind GB being the other end of that super bowl matchup with Pitt. They have magic going on over there. The fact that Aaron Rogers got well ahead in the race to 400 this year is a testament to that. He's above average even for good QBs (like Mahomes) this year. Andy Reid's Chiefs have never been great at stopping offenses, so it takes Mahomes to get to a spectacular 11-1. With average defense in GB, it's no doubt in my mind that GB is able to put up an impressive offense just because. But, it seems likely it will be Pitt in the end.

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 4:24pm

gun to your head - who should start the next game Wentz or Hurts?

also great points on AFC sans-Brady. however, New England as a whole is a bit of a dumpster fire so idk that you can put all of that on Brady, especially when he's had some so-so performances with all of his weapons + one of the best defenses (yes I know they beat GB by 4 scores, shut up). on paper, the South should've been TB's to lose, but there's definitely a part of me that's cheering for whoever's on the other side of the ball from TB

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 4:38pm

thebrofessor

gun to your head - who should start the next game Wentz or Hurts?

also great points on AFC sans-Brady. however, New England as a whole is a bit of a dumpster fire so idk that you can put all of that on Brady, especially when he's had some so-so performances with all of his weapons + one of the best defenses (yes I know they beat GB by 4 scores, shut up). on paper, the South should've been TB's to lose, but there's definitely a part of me that's cheering for whoever's on the other side of the ball from TB

I think Wentz SHOULD start next week because he is the QB paid like a starter. Unfortunately, if I'm Doug, I'm putting Hurts in.

 

1. Protect Carson. Season is over already, don't end the year with a hurt $100M QB.

2. Increase Hurt's trade value, because why not. Either we keep him because he's worth it, or we trade him and get the upgrades that the Eagles desperately need. Probably unlikely Carson will be a stronger trade asset given his contract and age.

3. The media really believes in this "spark" narrative, and it just seems like the better position from a job security standpoint.

 

Statistically, Hurts didn't actually do enough to prove he will be a whole lot better than Carson. I can say he's a noticeably faster runner, which is what I think helped him pick up that touchdown as he was able to escape the collapsing pocket and buy more time to throw down the field, as well as break the defense down by picking up yardage on the ground when there was nothing downfield.

But by the end of the game, it was the exact same result and story as with Carson. He threw for 42% completion, 1 TD, 1 INT, and he took hits, had to run, couldn't get the ball out fast enough, and the Eagles lost due to turnovers. That didn't convince me that Carson is the issue.

 

 

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 3:25pm

I like the Cardinals, but I do not think they will turn it around. Kyler Murray has a shoulder injury in his throwing arm, so his passing is not as good, plus he seems to not want to run and get tackled which would make his shoulder worse. It seems that the Cardinals offense does not flow without him being a passing and running threat, and their O-line is not good enough for him to get good coverage for passing. Also, their defense is not very good, so they need their offense to compensate. Their kicker has also missed a lot of important FGs. I don't think any Cardinals player can be counted on going forward besides Hopkins and Baker.

I agree with your Mahomes MVP prediction, and I think the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Their passing is too good and they have experience and a great defense now.

Just for a different prediction, it seems that ROTY is down to Justin Herbert and Justin Jefferson. Herbert could break records for total yards. total touchdowns, and passing touchdowns for a rookie QB if he goes hard over the remaining weeks. If he falters, Jefferson has been on a tear recently. My pick is Herbert personally.

I’m a fun guy. Obviously I love the game of basketball. I mean there’s more questions you have to ask me in order for me to tell you about myself. I'm not just gonna give you a whole spill... I mean, I don't even know where you're sitting at
 
Dec 7, 2020 - 4:25pm

Seahawks fan here. What an absolute piss poor performance yesterday...
Regardless of how we played against the Giants, I think Russ and our receivers rights the ship for the rest of the season and we keep control of the NFC West.

I'm really high on the Steelers this year. Their offense is good enough that if Ben/Conner/Juju/Claypool has a bad game, they have more than enough talent to make up for it. Their defense is looking solid this year but I think playing KC could cause serious problems. They're my pick for the AFC but I could easily see Mahomes making another trip to the promised land

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 6:23pm

I have plenty of psychological coping mechanisms thebrofessor to handle this decade's Niners performances. We'll always have the 80's.

Oh God, the Niners franchise is turning into the Cowboys franchise...

Be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
 
Dec 7, 2020 - 6:53pm

Justin Jefferson ROTY and Dalvin Cook with the rushing title, predicting now. That's all I need so playoffs for my Vikings would be nice but seems that AZ has better odds and frankly I'm okay with that. We need to rebuild this off season, especially our atrocious defense (bad trades made as well).

Think the SB matchup I most would want to see Kansas City v. Green Bay/New Orleans. Pittsburgh has had too many close games to mediocre teams this year and Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and that defense have been pretty stellar all year, can easily see a repeat. Now, the question is if a healthy New Orleans can beat Green Bay? Take away Davante (pls don't, he's on my fantasy), and it's a different game. It was a 7 point difference in September so I'm thinking the outcome would be similar. Also will be nice to see how New Orleans matches up against the Chiefs on 12/20 - that will definitely be a tell-tale game for both teams. 

Some underdogs I'm seeing are Buffalo, Miami, and Tennessee but it's so hard to visualize any of them going far given how they've been the last decade. Really was disappointed in the Niners this year but injuries will do that - they were really fun to watch last year. Also, I've heard thoughts about how Russell Wilson is overrated...? Curious if anyone feels the same. 

 
Dec 7, 2020 - 7:26pm

re: Wilson. statistically, he's having a banger of a year except for protecting the ball. ahead of Rodgers in yards, #2 in TDs (behind Aaron), #3 in completion % (behind bridgewater and brees), but it's the picks, he has 11 versus Aaron's 4 (I think 2 of these were tipped balls that were the receivers' fault), Mahomes's 2, and Brees's 3. I don't know if it's his offensive line, but I think what you're seeing this year is Russell having to carry a team without the other pieces, but then again I've never really liked him so I'm probably not giving him a fair shake.

 
  • Associate 2 in PE - Other
Dec 22, 2020 - 1:37pm

Ralph_Lauren4122

TheDiplomats

Pittsburgh has had too many close games to mediocre teams this year

Emphasizing this after the abysmal performance last night 

Guess who's back, back again

 
Dec 8, 2020 - 2:14am

The NFC is only really being dominated by two teams right now, the Saints and Packers. I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up being the NFC championship game. Saints have been steamrolling with Taysom Hill at QB. Add Drew Brees back into the mix and Kamara becomes a lethal pass catcher once again and they are definitely a powerhouse. As for the Packers, Rodgers is playing well as usual and Davante Adams is just putting up video game numbers. 

Disclaimer: I am a Giants fan so I absolutely believe we have a long shot. Do not kill my vibe. 

Everybody is saying that it's going to be the Chiefs or Steelers in the AFC. False. Anybody who's watched Pittsburgh play in the past few weeks knows that they're an 11-1 team playing more like a 6-6 team. They lost Bud Dupree on D and their offense has been lackluster, maybe because James Conner is out but I doubt it. Chiefs are dangerous as always with Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce combo. As long as Mahomes can feed those two it's going to send them straight back to the chip. My hot take is that the Bills are gonna sneak into the AFC Championship game. They're 9-3 and embarrassed a top San Fran defense tonight. However if it comes down to Bills vs Chiefs I think we all know how thats gonna end. 

Superbowl: Chiefs vs. Saints, Saints win. Its Brees, Kamara, and Thomas vs. Mahomes, Hill and Kelce. Kamara is literally a top WR and RB in one, you can't stop him. Saints D has also has the edge on Chiefs D minus Chris Jones. 

MVP: Mahomes, the guy's offense is averaging 430 yards a week. You can't compete with those numbers. 

 

 

 
Dec 8, 2020 - 12:03pm

Honestly no idea, but is anyone else weirded out by the artificial stadium sounds they put in for the crowd while the games are actually on, only to see the stadium be completely empty?

 
Dec 14, 2020 - 12:58pm

I can't wait to see who we lose to in the first round of the playoffs!

Seriously though, this is an incredibly frustrating team - very little consistency week-to-week, which makes me think that even with their talent, some coordinators know exactly how to scheme for a 'hawks game and there's nothing Pete & Co. can do about it. Makes for some exciting regular season games but it's not a formula for going deep into the postseason.

I have a buddy who's a diehard Titans fan. We both think our 9-4 team is worse.

"Son, life is hard. But it's harder if you're stupid." - my dad
 
  • Analyst 1 in IB-M&A
Dec 8, 2020 - 3:05pm

Let's be honest - Saints are the best all around team. 

They have the following:

1. Aging yet solid QB and seemingly serviceable backups

2. Top 3 running games w/ a good OL (Kamara + Murray with Taysom thrown in there, plus athletic OL)

3. Great receiving core (Mike Thomas and Sanders are both WR1, plus Tre'Quan Smith, Harris, and Callaway are playing well)

4. Top rushing D courtesy of an elite DL and LB core (Demario Davis, Kwon Alexander, Cam Jordan, Trigga Trey Henderson, Rankins, etc.)

5. Solid DBs (Lattimore, Jackrabbit Jenkins, CJGJ)

 

I can't think of another team with some much talent.

1. KC has a great passing game and decent running game, but a mediocre D. And even Pat Mahomie can't overcome being one dimensional on offense.  Lots of wins, but lots of average teams they've played.  Can't expect Tyreek and Kelcee to carry the team. Also, they don't domiate TOP like I'd expect an elite team to do.

2. Pit lost to the W*shington Re*skins.  lol, I get teams lose eventually but really???? You can't play down like that.

3. GB gets sacked...a lot. While they probably have the closest team in terms of skill and talent to the Saints, they are far too inconsistent. Perhaps their losses have been because of injuries or back swans I'm unaware of, but I don't see them making a deep run.

4. Rams, Seahawks, Min all look good, but not great.  Each has some holes the Saints would exploit quickly.

Besides that, I can't think of any other teams I'd say have legitimate chances to contest the Saints.

 

Of course, saints will probably get the 1st round bye and lose to whatever NFC east team stumbles into the 2nd round of the playoffs.  Also, the refs hate us.

 
Dec 8, 2020 - 4:14pm

thanks for your comments, only clarification I'll make is on GB getting sacked. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times (12 starts), Drew Brees 10 (9 starts), and Mahomes 15 (also 12 starts), so I don't know what your definition of "a lot" is. we've got a lot of weaknesses, but protecting Aaron ain't one of them. Russell Wilson on the other hand, sacked 40 times.

 

on the losses, idk that you can say our defense is a black swan, it's more of a black hole. I see our losses as follows

MIN - dogshit run defense taken advantage of by the best RB in the NFC

TB - defense taken advantage of, dropped balls, great defense on TB's side with an elite quarterback running the show

IND - again, dogshit run defense and a couple of dropped balls by non-Davante receivers, our closest loss but still

 

I think our biggest risk is meeting a peaking MIN or TB team in the playoffs. I don't see GB's run defense improving dramatically, and if Aaron has a slightly off game, either one of those teams can control the clock against us.

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Ind
Dec 8, 2020 - 4:22pm

Do not sleep on the Washington Football Team sneaking their way into the playoffs, comeback player of the year Alex Smith and Riverboat Ron look to finally have this franchise on the right track and the team itself is clicking at the perfect time, currently tied w/ NYG in the East and believe it or not are only 1 game out of the last wild card spot, that defense is not to be taken lightly.

 
Dec 14, 2020 - 9:21am

what a weekend. steelers losing to buffalo, saints losing to philly, chiefs throwing 3 picks and letting miami get close. I'm not one to change picks after making them (I should be made to feel shame if I'm dead wrong), I'm just way less confident in my picks. buffalo is the real deal, seeing what they did against a good team is impressive. they may go deeper in the playoffs than I imagined, and if the saints defense is so good, how come they couldn't stop the eagles run? granted, the eagles never put together a very long drive, but that kinda stuff matters in the playoffs, I wonder what will happen if the defense has that kinda outing against green bay, russell wilson, or even tampa bay.

anybody got any updated predictions? my conference championship game picks don't look so bad, but my SB pick and winner is looking shaky (steelers)

 
Dec 14, 2020 - 11:11am

So I would love to have a discussion regarding the Chiefs offense. Generally, regarding base defenses, the only team with a defense that can properly contain Mahomes has been the Chargers' Cover-3 defense (when generally healthy), with their high-motor pass rush, fast and lanky outside corners, and fast LBs and safeties covering the middle. That being said, we saw Miami's generally blitz-heavy ball-hawking defense pick up 3 INTs, sacks, fumbles, etc. While the MIA's offense, with their injured receivers and rookie QB, couldn't keep up with the Chiefs, maybe that's another way to beat the Chiefs? I don't think there's any other defense in the league that's as ball-hawking as the Miami defense, except maybe the Colts, but perhaps that's the way to beat the Chiefs this season, especially with their run game being so underwhelming. You saw the 49ers pull a similar game plan last year in the Super Bowl, with the defensive line being tasked to contain and outside corners playing man, which worked until they got gassed in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs' only lost weapons from last year and despite their record, definitely don't seem invincible. I could easily see a good game from teams with a ball-hawking defense and run-heavy offense to beat them, i.e. the Colts or Vikings. Hell, you saw the Paul Gunther led Raiders defense beat Mahomes this season, and that's sad.

 
Dec 14, 2020 - 11:22am

the trouble is this - you have the fastest player in the NFL who has good hands and a top 5 receiver in Kelce (WR or TE, Kelce's top 5), so yes something clever will have to be played because the Belicheck way that won so many SBs where you just double team the best weapon won't work here, they have 2 "best" weapons. if the Chiefs go to the SB, I think the only way they lose is by not having the ball last or a couple of mistakes that a GB or NO offense could capitalize on with their offensive weapons. they seem to almost have it all, and that's pretty scary.

at the same time, SB winners don't throw 3 picks in a single game

 
Dec 14, 2020 - 12:12pm

I agree, I think there are only a few specific defenses that match up well with the Chiefs' offense. The Chargers do so well because their DBs all run in the 4.3-4.4 range and they were able to put both a coverage LB and SS on Kelce, negating both Hill and Kelce. Problem is, with Watkins injured, no run game, and a failure to step up by Hardman and Robinson, any defense could theoretically shut down 90% of the Chiefs' offensive weapons. That being said, I can't think of any playoff teams that has that defense. Packers have Jaire but no LB or safeties. Steelers have the defensive backs, but are weak on the d-line and LBs. Colts have good linebackers and safeties, but really no pure speed corners, unless they decide to put Rhodes on Kelce and double up Hill. The Colts almost seem like the best match with a dominant run game, that would theoretically allow their defense to rest, and the defense could put Rhodes on Kelce and focus on negating Hill with man and safety help, allowing their strong LB corps to contain Mahomes and stop any passes over the middle, like the Chargers Cover 3.

 
Dec 22, 2020 - 5:49am

thebrofessor

 

 

Super Bowl Champ - as much as I love Rodgers. As much as I trust that he's a magician and that Davante is a top 3 receiver in the league without the recognition, if you watch the past couple of games, if the ball is not in Davante or Jones's hands, it's dicey. there were more than a few throws against MIN, PHI, and IND that should've been caught but went down as incomplete (not because of Rodgers), and in the biggest game of all, that kinda shit can turn the tide one way or the other. I think Pittsburgh double teams Adams and much like New England has done to so many, takes away our best weapon while holding Jones to a reasonable running output. PIT over GB in a heartbreaker, 27-21

Shall we revisit this? :) 

 
Most Helpful
Dec 22, 2020 - 8:05am

twas the Monday Night Football before Christmas

and all through the house

no bottle was unopened

not even that old Famous Grouse

as we sat down to watch, with eagerness and glee

no one could've expected, what we were about to see

it happened so fast, but it can't end like this

and then hopes were shattered with that Vonn Bell kiss

as they sulked into the locker room, steelers fans wondered

was it really JuJu's TikTok that cursed us to blunder?

so they come out of the tunnel, with a thunderous roar

only for Big Ben to turn the ball over once more

at this point it was certain, the #1 seed went poof

and vanished as quickly as Santa from your roof

as we turn out the lights, on a most epic upset

one wonders what could've been a more 2020 weekend, with wins by Cincy, and the Jets

 

 

in all seriousness I'm eating my words like it's 2015/2016 again where I called for Carolina to win by 2 scores in the SB. feeling more confident about GB and less and less confident about PIT. this is the exact wrong time to get cold, I think PIT loses in the first round to Buffalo or Miami

 
Jan 14, 2021 - 8:30am

bump

 

looks like I was dead wrong on the AFC, the steelers flamed out in tremendous fashion. Bills have impressed me in recent weeks more than Chiefs, so I'm going with Buffalo. given the brackets in the NFC, I think it's GB v. TB in the championship, and I'm expecting to have my heart broken by Tom Brady, so Buffalo v TB in the super bowl, and I predict Bills fans will have their hearts broken by tom terrific yet again.

TB beats buffalo in a good game, 30-27

 
Jan 14, 2021 - 8:52am

thebrofessor

bump

 

looks like I was dead wrong on the AFC, the steelers flamed out in tremendous fashion. Bills have impressed me in recent weeks more than Chiefs, so I'm going with Buffalo. given the brackets in the NFC, I think it's GB v. TB in the championship, and I'm expecting to have my heart broken by Tom Brady, so Buffalo v TB in the super bowl, and I predict Bills fans will have their hearts broken by tom terrific yet again.

TB beats buffalo in a good game, 30-27

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra

Having said that, my picks for the super bowl would be KC vs TB, with KC winning 34-23

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