Since Obama took over 4 yrs ago, it just been just a wonderful time to invest. The s&p is up 90%, credit/high yield has more than doubled, and many companies have seen incredible runs in their stock prices. Makes me laugh at all the Obama hatred on this board. Either keep whining and missing out, or shut the f*ck up and enjoy the ride. Anti-business - ha! More gains to come....
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Oh you mean since QE has begun which inflates the price of assets, both physical and financial. Yeah, thanks Obama for that one.
So you're saying corporations are not in much better shape 4 yrs later? Yes, all smoke n mirrors.
Much better shape? Yeah, sure. Laid off tons of workers, rung efficiencies, delevered. All things that happen in a recessionary environment. How has Obama had anything to do with this?
I really wouldn't consider them to be even in great shape. They are just pared down and leaner, which happens when you have to operate in an economy like this. People aren't employed and businesses aren't expanding because there is lack of demand. Input prices are rising and those costs are either compressing margins or hurting end consumers. Wouldn't call this an ideal situation.
The economy has improved, that's a fact. But it's not yet good, and still has the potential to get worse again.
I think everyone has seen the improvement and is forgetting we are looming on something terrible or great and we won't truly know for 9-18 months.
I guess we have a different opinion on what constitutes a strong economy and healthy businesses. You think stock prices are the end all be all. I think companies expanding, growing, hiring, with consumers who are spending, saving and investing, is ideal.
Not what we have here.
I'll let you get back to your cheer-leading session.
It's because Obama hasn't done a single fucking thing while in office except age 4 years. Just wait until all these regulations and tax hikes kick in. You're gonna be cryin' like a bitch.
Yes, bc future tax rates and regulations are completely unknown and not priced into stocks or models. Either your hatred is irrational or you need a serious lesson in capital markets.
I still don't understand how you can say that just because the market is up the overall economy is fine.
Was the economy fine when the market reached its heights during the RE bubble? Was the economy strong during the tech bubble?
Are you saying that QE 1-3 and beyond have nothing to do with the inflated equity prices and commodity prices?
Companies continue to lay off and are reluctant to hire. Consumer demand simply isn't there. Mortgage rates are at all time lows, along with housing prices, yet housing, one of the major drivers of the economy, limps along.
How about you lay your thesis out on why things are great and caused by Obama. Beyond just pointing to the Dow and saying "it is up, things must be fine".
I wouldn't have been long the market then. I'm saying (forward looking) I'm long the market now. If you're bearish on economic prospects, come out and say it's time to get short risk and let's talk in 4 yrs. Otherwise, pls stfu
Ok, we got it, you are long the market. We are talking about businesses and the economy. I already said that QE will inflate asset prices. Lets talk about the fundamental health of the economy and how Obama impacted it greatly.
De-leveraging is great. But de-leveraging because of fear and/or shell shock, with funds you took from capex or got by laying people off, is not positive de-leveraging.
Considering how low the cost of capital is you'd think companies would be re-levering and deploying these funds in positive return ventures. Yet they are not.
ant let the sheep be sheep. some people are not worth saving.
If both the Google and Starbucks CEOs each sold over $100MM of their own stock in December, what does that tell you?
I think people are less concerned with Obama being anti-business and more concerned about him being anti-American. Wealth redistribution? Looking at using an executive order to curb second amendment rights? Dem rep from NY proposing bills to repeal the 22nd amendment? These things don't bother you?
Keep drinking the koolaid buddy. Manipulated market returns are so disconnected from the reality of the situation, they can hardly be used as a gauge of the quality of the Obummer administration
OP, you VP of Lumina Investments?
+1
The economy is the least of my worries with this guy. That's saying something.
you are a complete idiot.
I'm the sheep, yet everyone else is in agreement! Amazing. Yea, you guys are all right. Great to be consensus when investing...
Who's up for a lesson in the difference between correlation and causation?
Smart people always find a way to survive, thrive, and make money.
Period.
Since no one likes to be accountable for sounding off on WSO, just want to comment that stocks have basically gone in a straight line up since this thread, S+P up 38% on a total return basis.
I also sold nearly all my equities today - how's that for a call. Republicans coming to power in the midterms will choke off investment, and the Fed will want to engineer some market pain (equities down, some corp defaults) to lessen their burden of justifying continuing easy money. I think a large correction is likely in H2. Republicans will then have their hands forced to turn the spigot back on in conjunction with Feds reaffirmation of low rates, and have another nice rally before the presidential election in 2016 when shit may really hit the fan.
I don't have issues with bullishness back in 2013, the relative value trade made sense, and you got absolutely punished if you weren't fully invested in US equities, but here's the dealio, even a broken clock is right twice a day, and it's appalling to me that we haven't had a correction of 10%+ since 2011.
what I do take issue with is your assuming that this is the result of Obama. saving the rest of WSO from a term paper, this is a result of 2 things: 1 and most importantly, the Fed. everyone here knows why, but we have very accommodating monetary policy. 2 rising earnings & multiples from the beginning of his term onward, which I do not believe is the result of Obama. Obama happened to be sworn in 4-6 weeks before the bottom on the S&P, so unless we went into a full head first dive into the shallow end a la 1929, stocks had nowhere to go but up.
I mean for God's sake, you could've bought GE at less than 5x earnings, MMM & HON at 8x, PG & JNJ at around 11x, KO & MCD in the low teens, the list goes on. I think Bozo the clown could've been president and the equity markets would've gone up just as much, so I agree with @"SirTradesaLot", correlation is not causation. I fail to see a convincing argument that Obama's policies (not the Fed's) are the reason for the 5y returns we've had in US stocks.
This is like saying Bush was a genius when the market hit record highs. Just because we have a low to zero rate environment and endless QE doesn't mean shit. And you can than Bernanke for whatever paper asset appreciation there is. Government spending has nothing to do with the markets going up.
OP, what are your thoughts on the unprecedented lack of real wage increases during this robust bull market fueled by quantitative easing?
OP got negged hard on this one
It begins. The script is so obvious. Wait for the Fed to tell you when to buy ("recent market and global economic weakness necessitates the continuation of extraordinary measures for a longer period than anticipated in prior meetings" blah blah blah) then load up the boat one more time.
I'm trying but I have no clue what this post is about.
Both your major parties suck.
I agree with "republican whiners".
Your leftists wring their hands, tilt their heads and bemoan that reality can't accord with their delusional utopias where a benevolent daddy-like government with a magical bottomless wallet government makes everything 'fair'.
Your conservatives shriek shrilly (cf Fox News 24/7 shrieking) that WASPs and a few other honorary WASPs (eg WASCs like me) have gone from 100% control of everything to 95% control of everything and worry that free choice and free will for women means a world where they are a lot less likely to get laid and/or their daughters sex lives will be outside their control (cf a lot of complaints about feminism; cf parallels with male desire to control female sexuality in most cultures, particularly radical Islam).
What I like about your economy is CHEAP(ER) ENERGY! That's why I moved here.
Look what's happened to your gas prices post-GFC as part of the shale gas revolution: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm
A lot of your manufacturing may have migrated to Asia, but that was largely manufacturing with a high labour cost content. Cheap energy is now providing a big boost to your manufacturing industry which generally has a high energy cost content.
And increasing US energy independence means that you guys can have more second thoughts about getting involved in places like the Middle East.
(But I think you should keep presence there, as China will increasingly import hydrocarbons from Russia and the Middle East, replacing US demand, and you want to keep a hand around China's throat).
I'm not sure how much of this can be credited to US Federal or State administrations (surely some of it?).
Love when people who come to the US use the term "your" as if you are not a part of it also.
Who fucking cares. Only people who every get fucked are poor people. Same everywhere and in every time. Even I utopian Europe you have the poors protesting and burning shit.
I get taxation without representation. So its your political system, as I've got no franchise. I'm just here for personal profit and adventure.
I think you need to look a little harder into history.
A counter example that comes to mind is Germany during hyperinflation in the 1920s.
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