Post-Midterm Thoughts?

justphresh's picture
Rank: King Kong | banana points 1,210

Now that the midterms look to be mostly over (with a few races yet uncalled), what are everyone's thoughts? Seemed like the expected outcome for the most part in the Senate (give or take 1 seat) but a complete shellacking in the House. GOP losing a handful of seats that were mostly considered safe and the Dems may even pick up a couple more here once all the votes are in. We saw basically a complete abandonment of the GOP by the suburbs (and specifically suburban women which I've stated on here would be the key to the GOP losses) with rural areas doubling down on the GOP.

As for going forward now, I think the Dem House will target a newer Voting Rights Act but I don't expect much and think it'll mostly be lame duck. I don't see anyone but Pelosi being the majority speaker.

Thoughts?

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Comments (40)

Nov 20, 2018

Pretty accurate in the overall picture. In 2 months or so, Mueller releases his report, which shows no evidence of collusion. Dems (stupidly) use subpoena power to continue to push the collusion narrative. Berniecrats fight Pelosi the whole way, but she ends up being Speaker. Legislative process becomes gridlocked and Trump gets a talking point. Maybe another SCOTUS justice, who knows.

Nov 20, 2018

Black candidates (Abrams and Gillum) were absolutely disgraceful in defeat and have set back their movement (blacks in high positions of power) by at least a generation.

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Nov 20, 2018
buyoutlbomonkey:

Black candidates (Abrams and Gillum) were absolutely disgraceful in defeat and have set back their movement (blacks in high positions of power) by at least a generation.

Yes because the actions of two individuals obviously set the tone for an entire race...

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Nov 20, 2018
CRE:
buyoutlbomonkey:

Black candidates (Abrams and Gillum) were absolutely disgraceful in defeat and have set back their movement (blacks in high positions of power) by at least a generation.

Yes because the actions of two individuals obviously set the tone for an entire race...

Considering they were two of three that ran in statewide races (not gerrymandered all-black congressional races), I would say that they did set back their race for higher office by at least a generation.

Please try again.

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Nov 20, 2018
buyoutlbomonkey:

Black candidates (Abrams and Gillum) were absolutely disgraceful in defeat and have set back their movement (blacks in high positions of power) by at least a generation.

Right wing, conservative identity politics to go along with left wing identity politics. It's like peanut butter and jelly, night and day.

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Funniest
Nov 20, 2018

I notice a distinct lack of mention that Trump said people were cheating (???) in elections and Rick Scott literally said there was rampant fraud happening in the election (that he won) and then shut his mouth when he won. Based on your logic this would mean they set back whites in power by a generation, no?

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Nov 20, 2018
justphresh:

I notice a distinct lack of mention that Trump said people were cheating (???) in elections and Rick Scott literally said there was rampant fraud happening in the election (that he won) and then shut his mouth when he won. Based on your logic this would mean they set back whites in power by a generation, no?

Wow what a stupid comment. This is such a stupid comment.

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Nov 20, 2018
justphresh:

Now that the midterms look to be mostly over (with a few races yet uncalled), what are everyone's thoughts?

Predictions were pretty much spot on. Dems were supposed to win the House, Reps were supposed to keep the Senate. Dems won the House, Reps kept the Senate.

justphresh:

We saw basically a complete abandonment of the GOP by the suburbs (and specifically suburban women which I've stated on here would be the key to the GOP losses) with rural areas doubling down on the GOP.

There are only so many groups that GOP can still abandon and win elections. Suburbs, women, college graduates, minorities, etc. Trump is going to ruin the party for generations and lead to the election of a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist in 2020 or 2024. The economy was fantastic leading into the election, but instead of running on that, all you heard about was a bullshit "invasion" from some asylum seekers hundreds of miles from the boarder.

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Most Helpful
Nov 20, 2018
CRE:

The economy was fantastic leading into the election, but instead of running on that, all you heard about was a bullshit "invasion" from some asylum seekers hundreds of miles from the boarder.

And now the troops are coming home before the caravan even arrives. Trump hasn't tweeted about the caravan once since the elections, despite very serious thinkers on this website defending Trump's latest hairbrained "8D-chess!" idea. Congratulations Republicans, you got played again.

Mr. "Nobody respects the military more than me" deployed thousands of troops away from their families on Thanksgiving to defend an empty border while the shrinking population of asylum seekers in the caravan (which only number twice what we receive in a normal day) "invade" 1,000 miles away. He can't bother to get off Twitter to visit Arlington on Veterans' Day, and now he's in a flame war with the general who led the Bin Laden mission. Hell of a leader you guys get behind..

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

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Nov 20, 2018

Do you even know how dangerous the rain is to someone with that extravagant hair?

Really though, complaining about not standing for the anthem and then supporting someone who does this is actually very sad. The man attacks the military and intelligence community every single day.

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Nov 20, 2018
CRE:
justphresh:

Now that the midterms look to be mostly over (with a few races yet uncalled), what are everyone's thoughts?

Predictions were pretty much spot on. Dems were supposed to win the House, Reps were supposed to keep the Senate. Dems won the House, Reps kept the Senate.

justphresh:

We saw basically a complete abandonment of the GOP by the suburbs (and specifically suburban women which I've stated on here would be the key to the GOP losses) with rural areas doubling down on the GOP.

There are only so many groups that GOP can still abandon and win elections. Suburbs, women, college graduates, minorities, etc. Trump is going to ruin the party for generations and lead to the election of a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist in 2020 or 2024. The economy was fantastic leading into the election, but instead of running on that, all you heard about was a bullshit "invasion" from some asylum seekers hundreds of miles from the boarder.

It's funny because if there's one group Republicans targeted, in that mess of a campaign, it was African Americans, with the mostly failed #walkaway campaign.

But nonetheless, stick to repeating whatever nonsense you read on liberal media, playing identity politics and then claiming ''not a liberal''.

Nov 20, 2018
neink:

It's funny because if there's one group Republicans targeted, in that mess of a campaign, it was African Americans, with the mostly failed #walkaway campaign.

But nonetheless, stick to repeating whatever nonsense you read on liberal media, playing identity politics and then claiming ''not a liberal''.

If something like 95% of African Americans don't vote Republican, it's safe to say they're abandoned, regardless of whatever hashtag is attempted.

I'm also still not a liberal just because I dislike Trump. That's not how words work. Same with "identity politics." Haven't played them.

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Nov 20, 2018
CRE:
justphresh:

Now that the midterms look to be mostly over (with a few races yet uncalled), what are everyone's thoughts?

Predictions were pretty much spot on. Dems were supposed to win the House, Reps were supposed to keep the Senate. Dems won the House, Reps kept the Senate.

justphresh:

We saw basically a complete abandonment of the GOP by the suburbs (and specifically suburban women which I've stated on here would be the key to the GOP losses) with rural areas doubling down on the GOP.

There are only so many groups that GOP can still abandon and win elections. Suburbs, women, college graduates, minorities, etc. Trump is going to ruin the party for generations and lead to the election of a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist in 2020 or 2024. The economy was fantastic leading into the election, but instead of running on that, all you heard about was a bullshit "invasion" from some asylum seekers hundreds of miles from the boarder.

It's funny because if there's one group Republicans targeted, in that mess of a campaign, it was African Americans, with the mostly failed #walkaway campaign.

But nonetheless, stick to repeating whatever nonsense you read on liberal media, playing identity politics and then claiming ''not a liberal''.

That being said, Democrats won a historically below average amount of seats, they quadrupled on the diversity agenda, the Blue wave didn't happen. I agree with you we'll get a 2024 Democratic Socialist, I also predict a 2030 Bolsonaro-like Republican, voted by the majority of Hispanics, to fix the mess identity politics and socialism will leave after Trump.

Nov 20, 2018

Historically low average? It was the 3rd biggest gain for a party in the midterms in the last 40 years. Do you actually know this little or are you just fucking with me?

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Nov 20, 2018
justphresh:

Historically low average? It was the 3rd biggest gain for a party in the midterms in the last 40 years. Do you actually know this little or are you just fucking with me?

He's not even american / doesn't live in the states either if you look at his post history. Bizarre how invested he is in perpetuating this infowars shit on a finance forum. Anybody who's spent 1 day at a reputable firm in American knows nobody thinks or talks like this.

Nov 20, 2018
justphresh:

Historically low average? It was the 3rd biggest gain for a party in the midterms in the last 40 years. Do you actually know this little or are you just fucking with me?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midter...
Obama lost 63, Clinton 54, even Regan lost 26. What are you even talking about?

Nov 20, 2018
justphresh:

Historically low average? It was the 3rd biggest gain for a party in the midterms in the last 40 years. Do you actually know this little or are you just fucking with me?

In the House it was but paled in comparison to 1994 and 2010.

Also the Democrats got assclowned in the Senate which is historically unprecedented for a House gain of this size. All in, this was a split decision not a blue wave.

Do you know this little or are you just fucking with me?

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Nov 20, 2018
neink:

That being said, Democrats won a historically below average amount of seats, they quadrupled on the diversity agenda, the Blue wave didn't happen.

40 House seats flipped, most for the Dems since Watergate
7 governor offices flipped, including MF'ing Kansas
Republican party in California erased
Texas is now a purple state
Anti-gerrymanding and voter rights mandates passed in multiple states
350+ state and federal seats flipped in total, reversing in one election about 33% of the much-discussed 1,000 seats lost during the Obama years
Generic ballot finished at D+7 (right in line with polls that Trumpers claim aren't valid anymore)

Call it whatever you want. I want to see the GOP burn to the ground and re-build, and denial from party loyalists only helps hasten this inevitability

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

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Nov 20, 2018
Alt-Ctr-Left:
neink:

That being said, Democrats won a historically below average amount of seats, they quadrupled on the diversity agenda, the Blue wave didn't happen.

40 House seats flipped, most for the Dems since Watergate
7 governor offices flipped, including MF'ing Kansas
Republican party in California erased
Texas is now a purple state
350+ state and federal seats flipped in total, reversing in one election about 33% of the much-discussed 1,000 seats lost during the Obama years
Generic ballot finished at D+7 (right in line with polls that Trumpers claim aren't valid anymore)

Call it whatever you want. I want to see the GOP burn to the ground and re-build, and denial from party loyalists only helps hasten this inevitability

I can't wait for Democrats to ruin Texas like they burned to the ground California.

Last in quality of living:
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/q...
Last in high school education:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_...
4th in inequality:
https://www.businessinsider.com/income-inequality-...
4th outbound intra-US migration:
https://www.northamerican.com/migration-map
Of course Californian liberals are now moving to the exact opposite, just to vote for the same policies they escaped to begin with.

It's also a good reminder that California is the model Democrats have for the US and that alone shows how dark the future of the country is.

But hey, you hate Republicans, so ok.

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Nov 20, 2018

Next time I'll pick CNN, or whatever dumb liberal media you prefer. It's also hilarious how butthurt you are about me, to the point of stalking me.

Fucking weirdo. Go back to your safe space/containment zone.

This post has been approved by the entirety of the financial community.

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Nov 20, 2018

Why do you sound like an Infowars comment section.

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Nov 20, 2018
Forex Swings:

Why do you sound like an Infowars comment section.

So, you read the Infowars comment section? Wow

Nov 20, 2018

Both parties are in a relatively poor position. I suppose because they are both in a poor position, neither is in that bad of shape.

Where do the Republicans go post-Trump? Who are the future leaders of the party? They are in trouble if it's Rubio and Cruz types in 2024. If it's Nikki Haley plus Romney-types who are a little more moderate, they will probably be fine. I think Trump has gotten a lot of voters who don't like him personally, but tolerate him because they really hate this progressive movement from the Democrats.

What do the Democrats stand for other than being anti-Trump? The platform Obama ran on in 2008 is too moderate to win today (see his gay marriage views). They are going to run democratic socialist candidates (except for maybe Biden and/or Bloomberg) in 2020, which is in part a reaction to Trump. They have old folks (Bernie, Warren, Biden) who will be out of the picture by 2024. They have younger people (Kamala Harris, Booker, Beto), but these people are not moderate. Are Americans ready to embrace their views, which are pretty far to the left? Or have most Americans in most places just tolerated these types in these midterms because they really dislike Trump? I'm not sure. On one hand, I can see these types being likable and winning a lot of votes. On the other, do people in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, etc. really want to embrace democratic socialism? Democrats probably slightly outperformed expectations due to massive voter turnout. What happens when Trump isn't running - is the turnout back to the norm? Probably.

I think the Republicans need to run someone "cool" in 2024 (I'm presuming Tump has 2020 nomination locked up) to have a chance, especially if Trump wins in 2020. Obama was cool, Beto for some reason unknown to me is believed to be cool. Can the Republicans find a young person, possibly even a woman or minority, to run? I think that if the Republicans ran anyone other than 55+ year old white dudes who seem out of touch and/or generally unlikable, that'd give a Democratic candidate fits as they couldn't play the identity politics card as effectively.

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Nov 20, 2018

This could be the case, however, It seems like for democrats, the best position for them would to be to run a moderate. Bloomberg, Biden, etc seem like decent picks. You are for sure right that the main issue with democrats is the people think they run on "anti-trump" agendas. I honestly don't think that is entirely the case, it's just that media sources only run things about Trump because of how much viewership he brings to the table.

Democrats do have policies which I and I'm sure others can support, the issue is if they keep electing people like Ocasio-Cortez who have no business being in policy, then they are essentially shooting themselves in the foot again.

With that said, moderate republicans had a bad time in the most recent mid-terms. While some Trump backed candidates did lose also, others actually exceeded expectations. This could probably be attributed to the fact that if a moderate republican was running, it was in an area such as a suburb/district where they had a small chance.

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Nov 20, 2018

Agree with all this. Although I don't think Trump-backed candidates necessarily mean they are like Trump or endorse all he does. He endorsed Cruz, who was the most vocal of the Republicans prior to 2016 against Trump, although now of course he looks super weak for allowing Donald to campaign for him.

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Nov 20, 2018

The American people spoke by voting to restore checks and balances to our political system.

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Nov 20, 2018

Update on some more finalish numbers coming in. Likely 40 seat pickup for the Dems with the 9million+ vote margin victory being the largest in the history of the midterms and the larger MOV %-wise for either party since 1982.