Prediction: Bain Capital will become a dirty term
With the bombshell allegations regarding herman cain and rick perry's bizarre clownish speech in new hampshire, the field of republican candidates looks more like a SNL parody than a stable of serious political leaders who are looking to tackle the many challenges facing us.
Hence, I think it looks increasingly likely that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee, despite the fact that most of the base hates him. This will be a marraige of convenience, not one of lust and soul consuming passion.
When this happens, expect the Obama campaign to absolutely trash Romney's work at Bain Capital. Every TV ad will smash the firm as being "soulless," "greedy," and "cruel." They will be accused of laying off thousands of hardworking middle Americans and shipping jobs overseas. In short, by election day 2012, the term "Bain Capital" will be in the same level of infamy as Goldman Sachs and lehman brothers.
Let them. I agree that the obama administration will try to bag tthe romney camp anyway possible, but i just dont think it will stick. First, allegations of doing incredibly well dont necessarily resonate with the american ppl unless flagrant cheating to achieve that success is evident. Moreover, banks (ie Golmans of the world) are much easier scapegoats than private equity firms. The reality is that most americans have no idea what a PE firm is, much less does (granted most americans have no idea what investment banks actaully do), so i dont know if it will stick all that well with the general population.
Interesting thought. On the flip side it gives Romney the credentials to say "I know business, I can sort out the economy". I'm not from the US but I'd imagine the main disappointment voters have with Obama is his economic record (correct me if I'm way off!) and the 2012 election will be economic and employment driven, and Romney clearly has the better background and experience.
Then again, Team Obama will use the line "you cannot treat the US economy and peoples jobs like a company you buy, gut and sell for profit" or something similar.
Doubt anyone will bring it up in so much detail... every time his CV is mentioned they talk about "Bain" and "consulting"
Focus will be on his track record as governor
Really doubt the plebs will know or care what PE is. In fact, I really doubt that the majority of the OWS protesters have even heard of Lehman.
Ironically, it wouldn't be too difficult to imagine a scenario where: 1) Lehman was bailed out -> 2) The markets don't crash -> 3) The rest of the banks don't need bailouts or the bailouts are a smaller story -> 4) No OWS, but people's lives are just as shitty still because they decided to go into 100k debt for a MA in Latin American Studies
Even before I knew what PE was, I had heard of the Carlyle Group from the Michael Moore documentary Fahrenheit 911.
People don't need to know wtf Bain Capital is or what it does when all that will be mentioned is a hit list like this: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7967.html
whatever the reputation of pe firms as job cutters, the actual employment track record at companies purchased by pe firms differs considerably from the slash-and-burn stereotype in the press. in fact, there are numerous reports and studies out there that reveal that employment at leverage-buyout and turnaround firms actually increased employment after a few years (albeit at a slower rate than other firms in the same industry). there is just as much ammo to refute all those claims. i think that romney will ultimately get bigger punches from other angles (ie, not his business record unless something truly sketchy is brought to the fore) although with the whole OWS, this matter does have some salience to it.
I don't see how Obama can spin the fact that Romney's a successful businessman to the Dem's advantage. To try to do so would be a strategic error imo.
Do you really think any occupy insert location protester would vote for Romney.... ever? Those in the middle and on the right will not fall for a successful businessman = bad bull Obama would throw out there.
It's sad that we have a president who never worked a real job before politics and yet will base his campaign on bashing a successful businessman. But that's the only choice Obama has, given his epic fail on the economy.
It's not true, but it plays to exactly what America wants to hear right now.
I that you Jimmy?
For the record, I'm trying to think through the realistic permutations of the debate, and this is the sticking point. I'm supposed to drink the koolaid from this that and the other wellspring of 'wisdom', but realistically, this is how it's going to shake down. The GOP strategist that can find a way around that argument will be the Karl Rove of the 2012 election.
For the guys who really give a shit, I suggest creating a new post to open the discussion on exactly that topic and maybe get the better ideas in front of a political analyst. I wonder how history would have differed if someone, somewhere, had gotten to a McCain aide and said, "Listen, I know you have a thing for doinking the occaisional younger, hotter broad. I'm here to help you, not judge you. You'd better run Condoleeza Rice, because this Palin character is going to cost you the election.
Ron Paul
I wouldn't put forth Lehman- the firm that most people know- but have they heard of any of the MM/boutiques/non-megafunds? Prob not unless they have a commercial branch.
Some OWS people are really smart, but they have such poor methods at dealing with the failings of the crony capitalism (solution = socialism) that there is no way I would support them.
I have a hard time imagining Ron Paul or Romney getting the nod, even though they're both the most qualified candidates for the Republican nod. They also seem to be two of the most 'honest' politicians in the sense that they have tended to stick more to their beliefs and their ambitions are relatively less egotistical than that of say, the career politician/flip-flopper Perry. The Evangelical/NeoCon side of the GOP refuses to get behind a Mormon and they hate what Romney did with healthcare in MA, while the cronyism that Paul has refused to tolerate his entire career seems to keep his campaign muted among the media, particularly the conservative media (Fox News and the WSJ specifically). Unfortunately, I think both are also the two candidates that are most electable by non-Republicans--Paul in particular, who has done incredibly well in most polls. Perry and Cain are just embarrassments at this point.
WTF Romney is an "honest" politician? You have obviously not been paying attention to this campaign season, as Romney is probably the biggest flip flopper out there. No doubt Romney is only in it for his ego and nothing else. This is coming from a guy who would vote for Romney.
You really put Romney and Paul in that same sentence?
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