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Wall Street will react predictably in the short term.
Long term it doesn't fucking matter. Financial policy is set by Congress, NOT the president so expect business as usual there.
In terms of other things the die is more or less cast. Social security becomes a net negative cash flow next year regardless, the interest rate environment is unsustainable regardless, and governments worldwide are going to start aggressively hunting capital regardless(because they're broke).
Bottom line we're going to shit either way. It just depends whether we're going to do it with humor or with class.
what are your thoughts now that the Republicans have Congress and Trump?http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/republican-landslide-the-volcker-…
Easy answer--go check the markets right now (stock futures, mexican peso, etc.).
Doesn't mean jack shit for the long term. Remember when people thought it was the end of the world back in January?
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but M&A environment doesn't seem to look too promising after this? I would say this with confidence in most other situations, but given that M&A picked up post-Brexit it seems like a toss up.
Nothing's gonna happen in the long term. Trust the media to get people worked up over nothing.
the biggest drivers of the markets are not who occupies the white house. here's what to expect, assuming the Donald doesn't fly off the handle and upper deck the King of Saudi Arabia's golden toilet...
against a backdrop of improving economic growth, rates will rise. this was in place before last night's result. I put the 10y at 4% by end of 2018, write it down. this means that bond funds will take a hit but unless there's panic selling, it will just be losses due to opportunity cost. laddered portfolios and higher relative coupons will perform fine.
stock market will continue to have 1-2 10-20% corrections a year. we had 2 this year, 1 last year, with high valuations and weak guidance, expect volatility to continue.
that being said, expect 5-10% annual returns for the next 3 years as corporations grow their way out of high multiples and the risk premium over bonds lowers as rates rise.
expect consumer spending to pick up. lower tax rates across the board generally means more money in people's pockets to spend, and since that's over 65% of GDP, this could be meaningful
also expect infrastructure spending to pick up, adding to GDP just by pure math (remember gov't spending goes into this equation).
expect a repeal of obamacare. with a GOP sweep, this is all but inevitable. for the sake of the uninsured or barely insured, I'd hope that there are state programs to help the needy, but this will make the cost of running a small business go down, potentially increasing hiring, but at a minimum putting money back in some people's pockets and being generally good for healthcare stocks.
expect lots of rhetoric around a trade war, but it's impossible to say at this point. my hope is that Donald was mostly talk and that we don't close our borders, because most of the US's greatest companies are multinationals and any increased tariffs could hurt earnings meaningfully. that being said, if in the new tax plan there's a mechanism for repatriation of offshore cash, companies could boost capex and in the future offset earnings lost to tariffs with greater productivity. I'm playing a wait & see with this however, still too early to tell.
hard to say on banks and M&A. if Trump repeals Dodd Frank, private credit and alternative lending will tank, and banks will be able to lend again, making working at a BB much more glamorous. if Trump appoints pro competition people to the Justice Dept that don't want mega deals, I'd expect more of the same. however, if he appoints people who don't particularly care about Bayer/Monsanto, ATT/TW, etc., M&A could pick up meaningfully assuming offshore cash is allowed to come home. good time to be a banker.
USD strength. this is a negative for multinationals and int'l stocks that trade largely with the US. also negative for EM equity and debt for major US trading partners. all of this assumes the Donald will get tough on trade. the way to play this is stick with mid & small caps, most of their revenue will be onshore (unlike say PG where over 50% is offshore), so they will be better insulated.
what remains to be seen is how one party control will play out. yes, policy will get passed, but how will this affect markets? if you look at averages (not perfect by any means), an all red gov't gives you below average returns in stocks. my thoughts on valuation kinda agree with this, so if we have 3-7% returns on stocks for the next 4 years, I wouldn't be surprised.
I think now the possibility of Marine Le Pen getting elected in France is much higher. Sarkozy will not have a cakewalk, and this speaks volumes about Western Europe. if the Bundestag goes populist in 2017, look out Eurozone, you're fucked. Matrick GoodBread feel free to disagree, just my $0.02.
most of the negativity around Donald has little to do with economics and a lot to do with his demeanor and mannerisms. if he does decide to default on US debt (doubtful), that would be bad. if he does close our borders (doubtful), that will be bad. however, if his anti trade legislation is offset by pro growth tax policies and repatriation of offshore cash combined with more after tax dollars in people's pockets due to no more ACA, we could see a nice bounce in the economy.
tldr: people freaked out, Donald isn't an ideal choice by any means from a societal/social perspective, but from an investor's perspective, there's a lot of upside opportunity.
Good post.
That said I don't buy the trade war. If you go back pre-election and look at some of the full statements here he doesn't seem to actually want to repeal NAFTA, he just thinks its ridiculous that China has protectionist policies against the US(so he can't won Real Estate in HK/Beijing) while the US has none against China. I'd expect him to be lobbying hard against Asian protectionism.
So...how's the book of yours coming along? ;)
How do you think the election affects the housing market for potential buyers?
assuming tax policy passes unabated...offsetting affects from lower taxes meaning more cash in people's pockets offset by potential overall tax reform (assuming mortgage interest deduction goes away).
I don't think it affects it much, housing prices are driven by different factors, I think the biggest head/tailwind you have is demographics. as the economy plugs along, millenials (biggest generation approaching homebuying age) will buy houses regardless of trump, harambe, or deez nuts being POTUS
also, still no book deal haha. I bet if you added up all my posts on WSO, it'd barely be 20 pages however.
Great post, thanks for talking me off the ledge. Still doesn't feel quite real.
Do you think that this election will have an impact on rates rising? Rates increasing in the long-run seemed to be consensus (to some extent) prior to the election. Does Trump change the rate outlook at all? Or is it a case of rates were always going to rise.
rates will rise for one reason: the economy is improving. that being said, they will not spike because we're still possessing higher rates than dev europe or jpn.
+1 SB for informative thoughts :)
I really hope you're right. Does anyone know of the likelihood dodd frank actually gets repealed? and prop trading returns?
He's said he will, I think it's too early to call
Regarding point 9, Aren't we expected to see a weakening in USD? Given Trump's talk about China's currency manipulation and his stance on trade, wouldn't this lead to potentially less foreign capital inflows and thus a weaker USD? Please correct me if these points are incorrect.
My thinking there is it depends on the index you look at. Our currency could be strong relative to EM because of balance of trade relative to the US (we import from them). It could be strong relative to the basket of 6 because our rates remain better than abroad, assuming trump doesn't call into question our propensity to pay our debts. This probably would've happened without trump, but if he starts a trade war and hurts our international neighbors, since we're net importers our currency should benefit
Hi Brofessor! I have a question. Do you think havingTrump elected could potentially put at risk an offer that I have at Goldman Sachs? (It is for Operations in Salt Lake City) Thanks for your input
No.
Great troll post. Love it.
A caveat to his tax plans and infrastructure spending (which are both expansionary fiscal policies) is how the two will be financed? Trump's fiscal policy may balloon the debt more and increase the public and private debt burdens.
Completely agree, he's given very little info as to how this would be paid for
"6. expect a repeal of obamacare. with a GOP sweep, this is all but inevitable. for the sake of the uninsured or barely insured, I'd hope that there are state programs to help the needy, but this will make the cost of running a small business go down, potentially increasing hiring, but at a minimum putting money back in some people's pockets and being generally good for healthcare stocks."
why would this be good for healthcare stocks? less people would be insured which brings instability to their payer mix and thus revenues and earnings, no? Maybe from a compliance/quality standards perspective they could cut corners and boast earnings?
curious to hear more on this
No, it would remove the necessity to be a part of the exchanges which have largely been a negative for earnings, look at unitedhealthcare in particular. Also one can assume that ACAs repeal is indicative of a favorable regulatory environment in healthcare (pharma, mes device), and if those companies retain pricing power, it will be good for earnings. What could suffer is healthcare reits however as whoever was covered under ACA uses the system less, but I don't invest there so not as well versed
Don't points 3 and 10 contradict one another? Or am I missing something? Could you elaborate thebrofessor
good observation. I should've clarified that my base case is 5-10% but I wouldn't be surprised if it was lower, like 3-7%
I must say I just saw this and am quite offended.
Buy silver and gold?
Preparing for Market Black Swans in U.S. Election (Originally Posted: 11/03/2016)
Do you guys think there are any in the case of a Democratic Sweep or a Trump Presidency?
Off of the top of my head:
For Hillary: Pharmaceuticals
For Trump: Gold
What do you guys think?
shouldve bought copper
Here's how the markets will react after the election (Originally Posted: 11/08/2016)
Bloomberg has came out with their predictions on how the markets are gonna react upon the conclusion of the election.
Thoughts?
Basically, if Trump wins, Stocks, the Dollar, and emerging markets will all react negatively. While on the other hand, Stocks, the Dollar, and emerging markets will react positively should Clinton prevail.
One thing interesting of note is that the consensus is that there will be a flight to safety should Trump win, driving the US Treasuries Price up and the yields down. This is the opposite for a Clinton Victory.
What I'm still not sure about is wall building and trade barriers. Do these happen? Paul Ryan is a pretty smart budget guy and knows his way around fiscal stuff, surely he'll be able to lead too much of a push against a real wall and real Chinese and Mexican trade barriers. Plus, Ryan and Trump sat down a while back so they have to have some form of an understanding on a way forward around those two issues.
Don't even waste your time trying to trade the news.
I want to hear a couple of investment thesis linked to the election results! (Originally Posted: 11/08/2016)
As discussed in title! I want to hear my fellow monkey's opinion on the election and what's their investment logic/thesis related to it!
RIP MXN
I have no idea about it.
Trump elected - Views from outside the US? (Originally Posted: 11/09/2016)
How's the reaction in your countries re: Trump victory?
Here we have basically three big camps:
1 - The "I don't care, it won't affect me, Americans don't even know where our country is" crowd; 2 - The "OMG I love Trump, he is the new hope for conservatives worldwide, I am so happy, he will lead the American poor to a Gold Age, they needed non-politicians" crowd; 3 - The "Shit we're doomed, WWIII will start soon, it's the end of the civilization, this man is a racist monster who will unleash nuclear hell" people;
To be honest they actually are right in some points: The man is a racist;people (not only in the US) are indeed tired of "tradicional politicians"and, finally, we're not Russia so impact here will most likely be limited.
I've read about some more extreme positioning from Europe and a "whatever"from Asia, but then this might be how our local media decided to paint it.
another day, another dollar...
Almost nobody outside the US is in camp 2
Brexiteers (aka a majority of Britains).
PS you can all stop pretending you think Trump is a biggot to try and sway the vote.
I think you forgot Camp #4: "Not ideal, but what can you do? All the more reason to get excited for Yeezus in 2020."
"The man is a racist"
isn't every republican candidate and constituent?
I am pretty sure anyone worth a fuck does not care about someone's race. They only care about two things: will you be good for me? will you be bad for me?
"The only colour these people care about is green."
Unbelievable is all I can say.
They're all a bit surprised and a bit worried. They're trying to find non-issues and make them into serious areas of concern (e.g. that he's white).
Pretty much the idiocy you see in the majority of the American media.
Here now they changed the tune a little bit, not worried about him unleashing a nuclear war, but apparently on shooting foreign tourists and people who live in the States, after all 'America hates foreigners" as a journalist already said. LOL
4 - Wait and see what he can/can't do. If you're flipping out now you clearly don't understand the checks and balances put in place to prevent presidents from becoming dictators. The liberals who are crying and rioting in the streets are pretty pathetic and the fact they suddenly think all their rights will be stripped away is sad.
True. To me it shows that some people don't really trust democracy (even with all the issues bla bla bla), unless of course their candidate wins, then people are supposed to trust the same democracy.
Sad!
Disgusted
Trump Presidency and the Future of Wall Street (more specifically IBD) (Originally Posted: 11/09/2016)
Hey guys,
Im sure that this has been already been explained throughout the past year but now that Trump will be the new president, what does this mean for Wall Street, investment banking (recruiting, upsizing, downsizing), PE, hedge funds etc? What can we expect? I know he talked about Dodd-Frank and Glass-Steagall, but what about the huge anti-globalization/anti trade (rip up NAFTA and the Big Business banks) platforms and current he ran on? How will he change the industry? If at all?
Thanks for your input!
Jamie Dimon is a stud.
Here is the letter he sent out in light of the election:
http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/read-the-letter-j-p-morgan-chases-ceo-jam…
He should have run for President.
that's because Jamie is rational. Trump is a despicable human morally, but could be a stud for the economy, we'll see. he could end up being just as much of a dunce as he sounds, but Dimon wisely sees the bigger picture (good growth backdrop).
fear is rational if you think he'll build a wall and you're trying to get the rest of your family over here. fear is rational if you're a muslim trying to get your family over here or be able to move freely in and out of the country. fear is rational if you're a job outsourcer to china.
fear, however is not rational if you just don't "like" trump and you're upset because a hothead republican (it pains me to even put him in the same party as guys like Mitt Romney) got elected. most of this country is reacting with their hearts, when in reality, Donald Trump will not have an impact on the daily lives of most Americans (I think the same thing about Hillary, in case anyone's curious).
I'm asking the same exact question. Except for trading http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/republican-landslide-the-volcker-…
.
Donald Trump's Economy (Originally Posted: 11/09/2016)
The majority consensus has been that a Donald Trump victory would be inevitability bad for the United States Economy. However, a recent CNBC article opposed this stance, saying that Trump's plan to rebuild infrastructure could spur on American GDP.
What is your opinion on the matter? What do you predict will happen to the US economy in the coming months?
Hmmm... I think if you look at the underlying factors of your rhetoric, they actually point to a deceleration of wage growth and declining rate of consumption.
Consumption:
Given your example of deporting illegals and giving their jobs at a higher wage to "native" born Americans, these increased costs will eventually be passed to households in the form of higher prices. With an increase in the price of goods, households will have less real income to spend. This means that households will have a higher savings rate. The excess savings will either have to be exported or imports will have to be curtailed. Also, remember that the out-of-work Americans are still receiving welfare or unemployment and were still consuming anyways. Once back in the labor force the savings created by their employment will exceed any incremental consumption by the worker (given the parameter that wages
not trying to be snarky, legit curious. how much of those manufacturing jobs have actually left because of overseas outsourcing? I'm of the opinion that the manufacturing jobs that are available moved south because of lower regulation and better employment law (right to work states like south carolina), and most of the jobs were actually lost because of automation/robots/technology. is Trump refuting that with data? is he just of a different opinion? or is he chiefly saying that the issue is it's cheaper to trade with other countries and America needs to make itself competitive again?
if it's the last of those, I'd like to see an argument to support that thesis, because I always assumed that even with neutral currency effects, it's more expensive to trade with us because we have higher requirements for standard of living. you put American manufacturing workers in squalor like Chinese factory workers, we suddenly get more competitive. but if you want a guy to be able to afford a 3br house with running water, HVAC, and a pickup truck, suddenly we're not so competitive. I just have to think the economics don't work, but I'm willing to listen if I'm missing something.
His plan is double what hillarys was. Trumps a builder. I'd expect national building which will benefit both parties and their districts.
Guys a deal maker who was a life long democratic. I fully expect him to work across the isle and get shit.
I'm ploughing money into the market cause I expect an energized economy.
any thoughts on the deficit his tax cuts combined with increased spending will cause and their effect on the economy? any thoughts on his trade policies?
The "consensus" doesn't know what the hell it's talking about. There isn't enough information about what can be accomplished to have any understanding of what the impact will be of an unknown public policy. To the economic prognosticators--read my lips: all bills originate in the U.S. House of Representatives, not in the White House. Paul Ryan and Donald Trump have some agreement on public policy but by no means universal agreement.
but what does this mean for wall street and financial regulation? http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/republican-landslide-the-volcker-…
What Happens if Trump Wins? (Originally Posted: 03/03/2016)
Alright...
So this is getting real. Trump is going to become the GOP candidate, despite the fact that the GOP itself is apparently very against it:
http://warontherocks.com/2016/03/open-letter-on-donald-trump-from-gop-n…
On the other hand, at least we seem to have escaped the extreme left/quasi-socialist Sanders, and appear to be facing the worst of knowns (Trump) with a potential candidate with a ton of unknowns (Rodham).
Who the hell is actually voting for Trump? I can't find anyone who says they like him, yet the polls disagree. Why the hell can't Bloomberg just save us all from damnation?
What will/should be the capital markets reactions?
Disclosure: I am not a political expert in any means. Fiscal conservative + Social liberal.
What will happen to foreign nationals studying at US schools who have jobs / internship / FT offers at NYC investment banks? What can we do to plan ahead? I am afraid of losing my offer due to skilled worker visa changes, but then I see tweets like this and get confused. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/633695559900073984 https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/633695409408491520
I appreciate any help/advice - thank you.
You have absolutely nothing to worry about.
You aren't illegal. You are skilled. You aren't a criminal (afaik).
If anyone tells you they know what Trump will do IF he becomes POTUS is lying.
The sensible people will do anything they can to fight against a Trump presidency. If all else fails, all you can do is lube up and prepare for what is to come.
Idk what will happen when Trump becomes president.
But I'll start training just in case i get chosen for the Hunger games
That's the 2nd time today that I've heard a reference to the Hunger Games, if Trump becomes POTUS. It's scary and funny at the same time!!!
The optimist in me says that our system of checks and balances will keep the most wheels-off scenarios from happening. The pessimist in me says this scheming orangutan will cause World War III. Reality is probably somewhere in between
probably the best response to this election I've ever read
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "with a potential candidate with a ton of unknowns (Rodham)." Regardless if you love her or hate her, she's been in the public eye for 25 years. I'm pretty sure we know her. She's laid out in detail her plans and she's basically been running for 10 years.
I thought this was a pretty interesting yet long read about Trump supporters. http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism
Although it's just my opinion-and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one-is that if he's elected President there's a decent chance that it's the beginning of the end of the US as we know it. I'm not saying the apocalypse arrives in Jan '17 if he wins but I don't think we come back from him. Nothing can go on forever and at the least the American public will fracture. Internationally we'd be absolutely fucked because he'd pursue reckless foreign policy and, rightfully so, any allies we have would be insane to trust us with him at the helm and we'd see a rudderless world and/or a power shift towards China. Personally, and I'm not kidding nor am I a reactionary tin foil hate wearing freak, if he's elected I'm moving to New Zealand or a small island in the South Pacific. I don't want my children to grow up in a country where he's the President or among the people who elected him.
If he's only the nominee of the GOP it's the end of the Republican party as we know it, if that hasn't happened already. If the traditional conservative republican GOP types want to keep control of the party they should sand bag this election, kick Trump out or piss him off enough to get him to leave and run as an independent and come back in 4 years with a candidate to beat Clinton. I'm ashamed of and disappointed in the Republicans who say they're going to support him if he's the candidate simply because they're Republicans. The guy not only is a repulsive wanna be despot who is using hate and racism to fuel his campaign, he's nowhere close to even being a conservative. He's turned what used to be a serious political party into a joke-in the last week he had Rubio talking about small hands and what that means. A US Senator and one of the leading candidates for the highest office in the land is making a reference to penis size? It's a fucking disgrace. I'm all for lively debate and opposing political points of view but he's made a mockery of a serious office. Reagan is turning over in his grave.
Don't let the door hit you on the ass as you leave.
What Trump Supports:
1) Strong Borders with a "big door" for legal immigration 2) A TEMPORARY halt on muslim immigration 3) Ending the carried interest tax loophole 4) Actually FAIR trade - not letting American workers get fucked over by NAFTA, etc 5) Repealing Obamacare, but putting something else in its place so Americans can have health insurance 6) Supporting all the good things Planned Parenthood does 7) Infrastructure spending 8) Lower levels of national debt 9) Pro Union, Pro Police, Pro Military 10) An end to endless interventionist wars (Bush, Obama, Clinton, Etc)
I love all the bullshit hysteria about Trump ruining out standing internationally, endless wars, this country rupturing, racism, blah blah blah.
You know why? Cause we have it all with Bush and Obama. Racism? You can thank Obama for the worst race relationships in this countries recent history. Foreign countries not respecting us? Thank Bush and Obama for this (coalition of the willing, line in the sand Syria can't cross, Iraq II lies, Libya, ISIS, et el).
Thank GOD that Trump is a shitty Republican. I think everyone is about done with conservative, back waters, fuck most Americans, classic Republicanism. Oh so sorry that China and big business won't be able to fuck American workers. Oh so sorry that we won't have endless religious lip service, trying to shut down planned parenthood even though it is one of the major sources of healthcare for most women. No more bullshit lip service about illegal immigration when it does nothing but deprive the poorest Americans (blacks included) of funding for their programs, jobs, higher wages.
This country is already fractured. Frankly, go fuck yourself with your pompous bullshit. No one stopped the American people for voting for Obama, a person who associated with a racist, anti American pastor, who had ZERO experience and thinks of himself as above everything else. Yet we have to stop a person who has actually built something, someone who is transcending parties. Trump is a populist in an era where both sides work together to fuck the American people.
Go take a look at wage growth and labor force participation rates and tell me that either party is doing shit for the majority of Americans. Take a look at Bernie's support and tell me people aren't sick and tired of the two party system.
Me, personally, I would beyond proud to live in a nation that freely elects a person who wants to put America first. I could give a shit what anyone else or any other country "thinks" of America. I think Europe is pathetic and will be an islamic caliphate in 20 years. You think Merkel gives a shit what I think? No.
Trump 2016 - proud of it.
Take me with you!
Two points:
I believe the saying is "Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they all stink, except those of beautiful women"
Don't pack your bags yet. If Trump (or Cruz for that matter) gets the nomination, Hillary will win the biggest delegate landslide of our lifetime.
Couldn't agree more. Did you see Trump's response to this during the debate last night? And the crowd's reaction? Like him or hate him, it's become absolutely fucking absurd.
our plan to open that surf shop/bar might happen after all
From Washington Post:
In any event, many Republicans dislike Trump primarily because they can't abide his flight from conservative orthodoxy. He has criticized the Iraq War and George W. Bush's foreign policy. He has attacked free trade. He opposes cuts in Social Security and Medicare. His vagueness on health care leaves open the possibility that he favors expansive government action to keep people, as he likes to put it, from "dying in the streets."
If the main problem with Trump is that he is not conservative enough,
Yeah, such a great reason to obstruct and lie about Trump.
1) Criticized Iraq war - left us in debt, killed and injured countless Americans and innocent citizens, all built on a lie that ruined many peoples reputations. Thanks Bush, Cheney, et el
2) Attached "Free" trade - So amazing, isn't it. I wonder how free it is when Americans try and sell goods to China, Japan, Mexico. Reality is, "free" trade only benefits businesses and business owners who can produce good for less overseas and sell if back to Americans.
3) Doesn't want to cut Social Security or Medicare - those damn poor and retired Americans. How dare they.
4) "Vague" on healthcare - Trump is a scumbag for not letting millions of people go without healthcare. Obama's version did nothing but benefit insurers. People keep getting fucked.
Illegal immigration lowers wages, slows automation and fucks over the poorest Americans. The rationale for illegal immigration is the same shit slave owners used for keeping slavery going.
"Who is going to pick crops for Americans" "They do jobs Americans won't do"
"WHo is going to pick cotton for Americans" "They do jobs Americans up north don't want to do"
Yeah, sounds about right.
Gotta love how everyone is freaking out about a POPULIST, someone who crosses party lines to effectively talk about helping normal Americans. Gotta love how those freaking out don't look at the damage the "establishment" candidates have done to this country.
Republicans (and Democrats) should take heed. Trump and Sanders are canaries in the coal mines. People are sick and tired of being lied to, fucked over and talked down to. The way the pundits sneer at "uneducated voters" whenever they vote for someone that isn't chosen for them is sickening. Obama and Bush are both Ivy League anointed ones that have done so much to fuck this country over.
IMO, Bernie supporters and Trump supporters share a lot in common, I think most differences are perceived and caused by the media.
"Internationally we'd be absolutely fucked because he'd pursue reckless foreign policy and, rightfully so, any allies we have would be insane to trust us with him at the helm and we'd see a rudderless world and/or a power shift towards China. "
Love this hyperbolic bullshit.
Trump, TRUMP, would pursue reckless foreign policy???
USA takes out Libya's air force and allows radical islam to take hold - Obama
USA meddles in a civil war in a foreign country, makes ultimatums and backs down, causes chaos and a power vacuum that is filled by Russia - Obama
China and Russian relationships are at all time lows - Obama, Hillary, Kerry
Afghanistan "surge" policy utterly fails - Obama
Illegal Iraq war "coalition of the willing" - Bush
Endless drone war - Bush, Obama
I mean lets stop there. Lets not talk about Iran Contra, Vietnam, Panama, Grenada, on and on and on.
But yeah, it is Trump that is going to do it. I'll bet you this. Hillary, Rubio, Cruz, 100% they all continue the same bullshit policies we have right now.
Rudderless world LOLOLOLOLOLOLO. You mean like what is going on now? Russia has stepped in. Our ME "allies" don't see us as reliable anymore. China continues to build their islands and we do what? Fly overs and bring ships close by. Pivot to Asia? Oh wait, that is Trump, right. Not the US strategically moving to Asia to counter balance the rise in China - ie, use military might to hem them in (aggression).
Keep singing that same 'ol bullshit. Gotta love it.
"The guy not only is a repulsive wanna be despot who is using hate and racism to fuel his campaign, he's nowhere close to even being a conservative. He's turned what used to be a serious political party into a joke-in the last week he had Rubio talking about small hands and what that means."
Trump is a wanna be despot? Hate and Racism? No where close to being a conservative? Turned a "serious" political party into a joke?
Suck a huge dick.
1) Racism - prove it? Don't even dare bring up that manufactured David Duke bullshit. Trump is a NYC liberal. If he is racist it is far less than anyone else in the party, both sides (Hillary - black men are super predators, wtf!?).
Islam isn't a race. He called for a TEMPORARY ban until we can vet who is coming in (every country has this right and ISIS has been saying they are using this refuge crisis to slip people in).
2) No where near being a conservative - THANK FUCKING GOD. Last thing we need is another anti-womens rights, bible thumping clown. Yeah, trump is the racist, but every "true conservative" is all about tolerance. Get the fuck out of here.
3) When has the Republican party been either respectable or serious? One forgets the campaigns of past, talking about illegitimate black children (McCain vs. Bush). Or a party that basically shuts down the federal government (Cruz). Both parties are pathetic.
This is how I know you're a moron.
Am I the only one who thinks that Trump doesn't believe most of what he is saying and is just trying to get votes? I mean I'm not really all that worried.
Dingdong08 You read "Vox" haha, what is wrong with you? I thought you were a slightly left leaning moderate.
http://theweek.com/articles/599577/how-obscure-adviser-pat-buchanan-pre…
I think this article merits a read and discussion. I personally think the America portrayed in this piece is a clearest insight into the reality where Trump's success is derived from.
Will there be a resurgence of value investing under Trump? (Originally Posted: 01/23/2017)
Trump policies are mostly inflationary and given value invest is more effective under inflationary periods could we see the resurgence of Value Investing?
Given both parties are leftists and no party has any inclination to reduce the size of government, nothing will change. Taxes up, spending up, regulation up, debt up, unfunded liabilities up, individiual freedom down. If anybody disagrees I have ocean front property in Nebraska for sale.
I believe the word you are looking for is, "deregulation."
No. The market is at an all time high - difficult place to find value. All of the lack of dispersion, bla bla bla bs from HFs over the last several years has just been griping about the fact that they generally suck and are a bunch of long/short mutual funds that can't even short successfully.
Trump wont change that
Will a Trump win slow economic growth? (Originally Posted: 11/04/2016)
The 2016 election is upon us, with many speculations about the effects of a win on either side. Citi claims that Trump's foreign policy, which includes withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and ceasing to defend countries that can "afford to defend themselves," will be a deterrent to the economy.
CNBC reports on Citi's findings:
I agree with this claim. Trump intends to place high tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, two of America's biggest trading partners. This action alone will hurt the economy.
What do you think? Does a Trump win translate to an economic downfall?
There is going to be a currency war from the next year or so.
Germany is currently under investigation in the US for currency manipulation, which is simply out of the fact that the Euro is remarkably weaker currency for them, due to the fact that it comes out of a weighted average of the other national currencies, the Mark being the strongest, the Drachma, Lira, Escudo and Peseta being the weakest.
This has resulted in an export boost for Germany since 1999 and that is no longer tolerated in the US industrial circles. Some say that the uncovering of the Volkswagen scandal earlier this year was a warning shot, we'll see. Either way, the Dollar is shifting towards lower levels as part of Trump's plan to revitalize the US industry.
Dodd Frank is going, Glass Steagall coming back.
Amazon will go under review for anti-trust reasons. Apple will also suffer.
Not going to say more than this. If you are good at something, don't do it for free.
Trump has no fundamental understanding of how the economy works, and thus is a fucking retard. Once people realize he doesn't give any shits about people and working people for that matter, it'll be too late unfortunately
I say this as someone that is far from a fan of Trump. Most shops trying to make differentiated, long-term "calls" on Trump's trade policies are spinning their wheels, as we don't know what he will do on that front. I suspect that it's mostly posturing from him on that front, and that he isn't going to simply rip up NAFTA. What we do know is that most forward-looking economic metrics are positive right now, with the most prominent example being the market. Here's another example: the Philly Fed's Capex Sentiment Index is the highest it's been in 17 years, and that's despite a strengthening dollar. Sounds like company mgt teams aren't too worried about trade policies.
Bret Stephens had a great column recently in the WSJ that gave several examples of how the federal government has been markedly anti-business over the past 8 years. For instance, eight years ago it took 40 days to get a construction permit. Now it takes 81. In the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index, the US has fallen precipitously from 3rd in the world to 8th during Obama's tenure. This is all to say, Trump has somewhat of an easy comp, and a lot of room to improve the economy.
I'll also mention that it's also a bit humorous that Citi apparently believes Trump may "curtail fiscal stimulus", given that the two main levers of fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, and (contra-GOP) infrastructure spending, are going to be principal tenets of his economic policies in the next four years.
As a conservative, I was extremely skeptical of Trump, but thus far, he is generally showing signs of doing positive things for the economy with his cabinet picks by cutting back on the draconian regulatory environment created by his predecessor. I was mainly enjoying this past fall for the trolls, not thinking he would win. But now that he has won, it is encouraging that we actually have a president that has thus far demonstrated a pro-business slant. Hopefully that continues, and hopefully, my suspicions about his plans on trade are correct.
Actually, even if he does restrict imports, wouldn't that strengthen the domestic market? Sure, multi-nationals based outside the US will go down, but I can see a strong rise in US-based equity over the next 4 to 8 years--particularly in industrials. Also the Dollar should weaken somewhat, in order for it to remain competitive, so I don't think the tarrif would be that much of a problem. Change in policy? Sure but not a problem--as long as we don't get into another war or long-term military project.
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