Shorting Puerto Rico Muni Bonds

As we all know, PR has been in crisis for past 2 years. Approximate chance on Default on those bonds have risen to 86%. Any cost effective idea on how to short them? It has been a struggle for lot of traders on the STREET and worldwide. Lets figure it out WSO!

 

Train has just arrived and there are few who have recognized impact on GO and Revenue debts. We still have time to find an instrument to use it. Credit default Swaps are easy way to do it but transaction cost on it is expensive.

Looking at PR Economy- Majority is based upon Manufacturing ( ~45%) and Finance (~20%)

Service Sector has been allocating to mainland steadily for new jobs. State Tax close to 11% and Public debt is close to 65%.

Hit it where it hurts the hardest, it safe to assume Regional banks such as Ticker: FBP, First BanCorp would be good starting point.

Please add your logic as well so we can come up with most efficient solution!

Thank You!

 
Best Response
AndreusCento01:

Train has just arrived and there are few who have recognized impact on GO and Revenue debts. We still have time to find an instrument to use it. Credit default Swaps are easy way to do it but transaction cost on it is expensive.

Looking at PR Economy- Majority is based upon Manufacturing ( ~45%) and Finance (~20%)

Service Sector has been allocating to mainland steadily for new jobs. State Tax close to 11% and Public debt is close to 65%.

Hit it where it hurts the hardest, it safe to assume Regional banks such as Ticker: FBP, First BanCorp would be good starting point.

Please add your logic as well so we can come up with most efficient solution!

Thank You!

The muni bond insurer's equities are also somewhat correlated with Puerto Rico's fortunes as some of them are quite heavily exposed.

 

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