Pzena / rotating growth into value?

https://www.pzena.com/third-quarter-2020-commentary/

Articles like this go on to compare the current environment with 1997-2000, arguing that most of the outperformance from growth over value has come from multiple expansion, which is only getting more stretched like a rubber band and will inevitably snap back. Now before anyone starts, this is about growth and value as colloquially used, please none of that "bUt eVerYthiNg iS vAluE anD grOwth is a cOmpoNenT of ValuE!!1"

I'm thinking over several ways Pzena could be right about that multiple expansion reversing, and whether it makes sense to rotate from growth into value right now. Any push back on the following would be welcome:

  1. If investors lower their discount rates, multiple expansion would be most pronounced for stocks with high roic + high growth + long growth runway. This has been the case, so perhaps the multiple expansion reverses when investors realize they have overestimated those metrics? But assuming investors have calibrated those correctly, the other way multiple reversal could happen is...

  2. Are we at risk of discount rates mean reverting and the multiple expansion in these "growth" stocks reversing? Yes, risk free rates can go up but with the government put, long term investing in equities legit has become a lot less "risky". Higher risk free rates would raise discount rates but that would be offset somewhat by the lower risk premium. Hard to see the entire accumulated multiple expansion unwinding purely from discount rates reversing. This seems like a structural shift in how investors think about financial assets after 2008 and 2020 demonstrated it works; how does the cat go back in the bag? Note, I am not saying we will have continued multiple expansion to fuel further growth stonk outperformance, just trying to figure out if there will be a reversal in multiples, versus multiples just hanging out where they are.

  3. In a market sell off, FANG probably gets hit less hard than "value" stocks that have a decent shot of disappearing e.g. debt laden balance sheets. From the trough, value probably outperforms, simply because it got hit harder from the peak on down. But from a behavioral / psychological approach, why would you buy "value" now?

 

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