7/27/16

Well, this has been a trend with Investment Banks lately.

For ex Goldman has really failed more than it got it right making predictions on any subject ranging from Currencies, Macro, Statistical and even more recently Euro 2016 (They predicted Portugal's defeat in Quarter Final).

The more interesting though, is how many Macro prediction failures have been recorded since last year, especially in the currency world. Goldman's top 10 trades for the year are a complete disaster, the list includes Long USD/JPY (down massively on the year) Short EUR/USD (still up on the year). Predictions are so bad that they had to abandon their "10 commandments for 2016" as early as February.

I have also noticed that on social media, recently, the public would advise to take the other side of any Bank's public opinions or forecasts, and the funny thing is, it works.

Why are big banks sucking at research? Did the market become efficient and very hard to predict? Or maybe banks don't know what they're doing (that's what their 10ks say anyway)?

P.S: Some say they release public statements the opposite of what they're doing to find liquidity and get out of their positions, what do you think?