North Korea

Do you not understand the concept of nuclear weapons? Clearly you are not a student of history.

I would love to see the following situation that you described play out, but I think China disarming NK's nuclear program is a big "IF." Also, given Kim Jung Un's past report card, I have to imagine that any economic stimulus going into the country (or any country run by a dictator) would be used for militarization efforts and not the good of his people.

I think you're spot on with last part of your assessment. Despite China being nervous of the "powder keg" hermit nation, China approves of having them on their boarder as a buffer to western powers, given China's communist agenda and their dislike of having US troops on the peninsula.

Clearly the best case scenario. But perhaps not realistic as the regime would probably be overthrown if the country was ever opened up. The worst case scenario is any military action. Not only is Kim Jung Fool (hilarious btw) armed and dangerous, a dictator maniac who puts anyone who opposes him in prison camps, but the people are so fanatical and brainwashed we would have to probably kill them all. Even if they surrendered easily the humanitarian crisis would be huge.

The outlook is all pretty grim. A more realistic best case scenario would be decisive military action that does not result in a military response from NK as the regime would like to stay in power.

And finally... Did everyone just forget that this is the same Regime that helped the Syrians build an enrichment plant for producing nuclear weapons or is our media just that fucking stupid and our education system just that useless?

TNA:

North Korea cares about security and the continuation of their hermit regime. KJU has shown an interest in westernizing and if you look at Pyongyang you can see his influence. Yet the US sanctions the shit out of them and bullies China to cripple the country.

1) The US should agree to remove forces from the Korean Peninsula if China can get NK to fully disarm their nuclear program.

2) If these conditions are met, the US should resume limited dipolomatic relations with the country and work with China to introduce economic stimulus that will benefit the poor people of that country.

3) We should also use our withdrawal from Korea as a peace offering and seek a similar quid pro quo from China.

We are not the worlds police. China is not going to be firm with them because they do not want US troops on their border. Korea is a rich nation and can protect themselves.

One of my closest friends is a pretty high ranked CIA analyst who called Trump's victory and Brexit. He told me last night that there are no easy answers on North Korea, and anyone who thinks so is highly misguided. He said the best analysts have no idea how to assess Kim's personality or how he might behave in the future. My buddy, who has an opinion on everything, said there are no good solutions to North Korea.

BTW, China is not disarming North Korea of its nuclear arsenal. You're mistaken if you think China and North Korea are allies. At best they are frienemies, and frienemies don't have the clout to persuade you to disarm.

Pretty sure it's a combination of them shelling the fk outta South Korea if we invade/ China would be pissed/ as with Iraq and the like what happens after we put Kim in his grave.

GoldenCinderblock:

I don't understand how North Korea still exists. I know it's homies with China, but is that all keeping us out? If we're scared they'll launch nukes if we invade, and they are as inept as we are led to believe, couldn't a couple teams of spec ops dudes just wipe out their entire leadership in like a fortnight? We're all 'rah rah we're the good guys slavery and the holocaust were tragedies' but we're allowing a tragedy to occur currently.

North Korea has the capacity to obliterate Seoul, South Korea in 24 hours with conventional, Soviet-era artillery.

Welp, now we know.

Guys an update from Trump- "If it would be appropriate for me to meet with Kim, I would, absolutely. I would be honored to do it"

This is probably the most amicable gesture American president have shown in a very very long time.

I am following very closely how this unfolds.

I didn't agree with that statement until I saw it pasted on two threads by a fratlord. The key word is somewhat. Not that I wish I got laid less, but I certainly wish I spent less time chasing ass in college. Pretty reasonable thing to say.

He did not just inherited... His price was.... ah.... his step brothers life, his aunt and his uncle.

just aspirated some water laughing at this, thank you.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Pentagon's "war room" that has probably 100 or more contingency plans for North Korea. I'm right 99.99% of the time, but I honestly have no idea what to do with North Korea and I haven't heard a single decent idea from anyone anywhere, and I follow this pretty closely. It feels like a chess game where the opponent (NK) is down to its King and a pawn and you still have half your pieces left but you don't seem to have a move that checkmates the opponent.

I'm glad I'm not in the military. Jungle combat is pretty nasty shit. They won't want to use nukes and you're not defeating NK without boots on the ground. They have one of the largest armies on Earth. The casualties would be enormous.

I don't foresee President Trump tolerating this stuff for very long. Frankly, it's been tolerated for too long as it is. They should have toppled that regime decades ago. Now they're so dangerous that there's basically a risk of nuclear war.

They're just ronrey, so very ronrey

Well, considering the fact that it would take an ICBM to deliver a nuclear warhead from N. Korea to the US (in a manner we wouldn't be able to stop beforehand), I'd say there's a lot of posturing going into N. Korea's statement. Remember the last time that N. Korea tried to launch a rocket?

Any thoughts on how military action would affect the markets?

i love how they score basketball... 4 points for a 3pointer swish, -1 for a missed free throw!

http://deadspin.com/5988085/north-korea-invented-its-own-totally-differ…

Obviously, no one thinks North Korea can hurl a missile at LA.

What I find concerning: what if NK crosses the line with the West, which they think might be much further away than it actually is. What if a small-scale accident just sets the whole thing off and starts a full exchange? From what I'm reading these new sanctions are no joke...stranger things have happened.

Saber rattling, they don't have the capability. This is the best you're going to get if you're waiting to hear the words "Let's make a deal". Seriously, the last round of sanctions are no joke, NK is literally getting choked out.

WWDRD?

(What Would Dennis Rodman Do?)

Nope, they can't shoot anything that far out, NKs just bluffing like they always do. Though I can't say that it wouldn't affect the asian markets.

My Korean buddies say this always occurs between NoKo and SoKo - in reality nothing major ever happens and the tension is just constant.

Maybe with the new regime things will change? No one can say for sure :(

http://www.youtube.com/embed/yGzcxG2gBIE

Not much of an armchair general per se, but have done work inside NK in the past. Hesitant to get into all the details on a public forum, but did mainly humanitarian work there. However, we were granted a little more access than the average visitor.

To put things in perspective, N Koreans absolutely detest every single thing about Americans. Take a walk through the elementary and jr high schools you will see graphic murals painted down the hallway of clearly distinguished American soldiers torturing, raping, and killing N Korean women and children. At many street corners, high rises, monuments, and murals you will see militaristic terminology serving as reminders that Americans are the enemy and they must annihilate them at every cost. I couldn't even wear jeans because they view it as a symbol of western imperialism. I don't find all this hype about nuclear weapons very intimidating as I personally don't believe they are capable of producing an ICBM, yet. What I do find as more a threat is their continued alliance with China in building and developing certain cities at key geographical locations along the coast and border of N Korea and China. Cannot remember the exact names of the Korean-named cities, but the city of Tumen right at the border of China is a developing tourist attraction. Allegedly, it's part of a long-term plan for China to gain control of the Sea of Japan. China was developing a railroad that stretches from these strategic N Korean cities into the resource heavy Mongolia. Once China gains control of the Sea of Japan western forces are useless in aiding S Korea or Japan. China gets an upper hand in their naval line of defense behind Japan's islands and can cut aid and supplies while supplying their militaries with the constructed railroad. When will this scenario play out if it plays out, I do not know. But if China is ready and all hell breaks loose, looks like it will get pretty ugly.

All the N Korean women are mandated to be trained once a month to specialize in varying military support roles. One of the women who guided my group remained confident she could shoot down any aircraft if needed as anti-aircraft missiles were her specialty. I wouldn't be surprised if they strapped their young ones with ak-47s and rpg launch tubes. But this is a country where people die of starvation and cold weather all the time. The average N Korean male height is no greater than 5' 5" at best due to nutritional deficiencies. Electricity cuts out at 10pm every night. Only the elite gov't members have cars and proper food to eat. They did not have cell towers until just a couple months ago after being banned early 2000s. My theory on that is because of a cellphone bomb that was meant to kill Kim Jong Il when his train passed through a tunnel. It's an unpublicized event and rarely anybody knows of the story, but the case was that an explosion happened near a tunnel a couple hours before Kim Jong Il's train was supposed to pass through. Why 2 hours? Perhaps a failed calculation of time difference. North Korea allowed cellphone service at that time, and shortly after that "mysterious explosion" cellphone service was banned. Did a quick Google search and found the story on wikipedia. The wiki article states 3 hours after Kim's train passed, but I recall being told by the government guides/locals it was before the train passed through. Ah who knows. Can't post links due to new user status, but wikipedia "Ryongchon Disaster" for story..

they've just put a ****ing satellite in space. They can hit ANYWHERE on the planet. The US is a big place. that thing could come down anywhere. It'd be doing 400 mph+ just with freefall, and having to cover 90 miles, you'd have 10 minutes to see it, track it and intercept it and best of all you couldnt retaliate, because your nucelear fallout would hit China and as soon as a button got pressed, Seoul would evaporate.

Just watched Red Dawn. I know the movie was originally constructed as an invasion by China and I believe after the fact (after the movie was made) it was changed to North Korea for political reasons. Anyway, even though I knew the movie was made about China, just the idea that North Korea could mount an invasion is just, I don't know, too absurd to fathom and made the movie difficult to digest.

North Korea is one of the poorest nations on Earth. It's a 3rd world country with a few satellites in space. It has no ability to mount an offensive attack, and if it tried the United States has 10,000 nuclear weapons. The U.S. Air Force and Navy absolutely dominate the skies and seas. This isn't 1950 where the U.S. would have to send in 200,000 troops--we could annihilate the entire North Korean military machinery in a week. I'm not saying this to beat my chest, just to point out that what I'm saying the North Korean military leaders are just as aware of. There's absolutely no way China would consider North Korea a hill worth dying on--China has a decent military, but the U.S. with NATO as its wingman is an overwhelming force plus the EU and the U.S. are China's vital economic partners. There's no way China would intervene to protect North Korea unless the People's Republic is interested in economic collapse and political collapse. Hence, like always, North Korea is issuing idle threats that worry no one.

The US is too broke for another war. I hope this is just another publicity stint.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/DJN9Wkw7Swo

I am so interested in North Korea. It is wild -- everything about it.

Did they actually scrap the armistice? Are they going to attack or is it more BS.

I swear, this is the stage for WW3. NK attacks SK, Japan, or the US. One of the latter declare war against NK. The remaining 2, as well as the Allie countries join.

The question is, does China back NK? If so, WW3. If not, a really bloody war but WW3 avoided.

Another interesting question is will Russia back NK, stay neutral, or perhaps even join the US?

Very interesting stuff. I've watched everything on youtube, from the prison camps, to the tours, to the propaganda, to the smuggled videos of daily life, to the starvation issues, etc.

If you want a great analysis on what a conventional Korean exchange would actually look like:

http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-betwee…

To address your comment about crossing the 46? 45? parallel and starting a minor "incident"; I'm not actually too worried about NK, but the fact that China and Russia seem to side with NK on a lot of matters concerns me. Not that China or Russia are so irrational as to completely side with NK, but the fact that they even go so far as to mediate for them is worrisome.

I am normally quite a pacifist, but this country's government just has to go. Maybe not a viable threat, but they just annoy the hell out of me. Such a group of brainwashed imbeciles, don't know how anyone could back them (with the exception of Dennis Rodman, who is a freak.)

I understand that they wouldn't back NK outright. I just see it as (hypothetically), if NK did something that warranted a regime "change" facilitated by US or any other Western countries, that China and Russia would do all within their power to prevent the displacement of the current NK government and system. Maybe not join NK in arms or whatever, but just make it problematic.

This being all hypothetical, as I doubt NK has what it takes to do much, on top of the fact that Russia and China would likely try and deter them do to the backlash they'd receive from Western countries.

Kim Jong Un is a brilliant artist creating a real life Space Jam, casting Rodman as Jordan and the Koreas as opposing teams.

China's only REAL interest in North Korea is the stability of the region--when North Koreans escape, they often end up in China. China doesn't want millions of poorly educated, low-skilled North Korean immigrants flooding into its country.

At this point, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) doesn't even recognize itself as communist but as a completely different ideology altogether, so the Chinese Communist Party doesn't even have an ideological ally in North Korea. Point is, there's just no way China would back the DPRK except some form of verbal condemnation.

They'd have to build or purchase:

1) A sub capable of launching a SLBM

2) A SLBM

You'd need both as a package; you can't take a land based ICBM and modify it for a sub launch.

Even if they somehow got their hands on a antiquated Russian ballistic missile submarine, trained them and stocked the sub with SLBMs (highly unlikely, that would increase tensions to the nth degree and North Korea isn't worth it) they'd have to escape detection, which is a near impossibility as the old Russian subs are noisier than hell and they'd only have one point of departure due to the requisite submarine pen.

Their missile technology remains unreliable and dated. While they did successfully make an orbital launch, it remains to be seen whether they have the accuracy on such a missile in order to render it an effective ICBM. Further, their missiles use liquid fuel for propulsion, making the fueling a rather long and laborious process... and a dead giveaway to any spy satellite as to any hostile intent.

I had hoped Kim Jong Un would be a more moderate leader than his father. These recent actions are disappointing, especially given his (brief) Western education. Nevertheless, North Korea will likely remain a rational actor.

Why would they possibly attack S. Korea / Japan / the US? They have exactly one shot. The moment they attack, N. Korea is a crater. And they lack the capacity to truly incapacitate their target - the retaliation from their target (and allies) would be overwhelming.

N. Korea is a dictatorship, and dictators have one goal: to stay in power. The aggressive posturing is a distraction. If you believe a foreign power is about to invade, you are not going to question the status quo domestically. Like the Soviets demonized the West, so must N. Korea.

If anyone's interested in a personal testimony.

http://www.ted.com/talks/hyeonseo_lee_my_escape_from_north_korea.html

Shock and awe Pyongyang and wipe out all military installations? We barely know who their leader is anymore, and I highly doubt we have the intel to build a pre-emptive strike that guarantees minimal South Korean casualties. NK does, after all, have the ability to attack Seoul from afar, which would cause lots of problems.

We'd never hand North Korea over to China -- the left in this country, rightfully so, would go nuts because of China's numerous human rights violations. Understandably, China is the lesser of two evils, but our country is led by folks who are self-interested and like to be elected to office numerous times.

Reunification would cost a literal fortune for South Korea because feeding 24M starving people is tough.

Have you not learned anything from Bush's invasion in Iraq? There's no opposing party in DPRK if that little fat ass was killed, so if we did go in and execute a coup the US would be stuck there governing a bankrupt and impoverished nation, much like we did for Iraq, except at least that economy had oil reserves.

The problem with NK is that no one wants it. Seoul doens't want to deal with the North and its economy is thriving, have you looked at their trending GDP lately, it's growing at a pace faster than China's. Why would they want to take on DPRK? China doesn't want DPRK either because of the issues outline above, namely no functioning economy, highly uneducated populace, and extreme poverty (they're called the stunted generation).

DPRK exists today because no one wants it, it's as simple as that. If we could've found a successor, a coup would be simple to do and install a new leadership, but absent the latter, DPRK and that little fat ass will continue to rule.

You really think it's a good idea to ask a rising world power for military favors? That gives them a license to do whatever they want from here on out.

Obviously you are no geopolitical expert. Nice try though.