Super Tuesday Predictions?

States to Vote:

  • California [Delegates: 415] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Sanders

  • Texas [Delegates: 228] (Biden) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • North Carolina [Delegates: 110] (Biden) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Virginia [Delegates: 99] (Biden) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Massachusetts [Delegates: 91] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Minnesota [Delegates: 75] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Colorado [Delegates: 67] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Sanders

  • Tennessee [Delegates: 64] (Biden) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Alabama [Delegates: 52] (Biden) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Oklahoma [Delegates: 37] (Biden) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Arkansas [Delegates: 31] (Biden) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Utah [Delegates: 29] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Sanders

  • Maine [Delegates: 24] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Biden

  • Vermont [Delegates: 16] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Sanders

  • American Samoa [Delegates: 6] (Sanders) --> Actual Results: Bloomberg

If this were the case it would seem like Biden is the favorite to go on to win the nomination dependent on any delegate blowouts. It also seems like Texas will decide the primary.

What are other peoples' list?

 

If Biden can take Texas and narrow the Cali vote - he's gonna win this. If Bernie takes both Cali/Texas, it's going to be really difficult to catch up to him, and the best hope will be a contested convention (which ultimately will tank the democrats chances of winning the general).

Also there are tornados in tennesse rn which could affect the predicted margins if it disproportionally affects rural areas.

 

Sanders was projected to be way ahead in Cali, which I think would make it tough for Biden to catch up. What about those super delegates that Clinton had in 2008?. I would assume if that is still a meaningful metric that Biden would have most of them.

 

It is going to be a good day for Biden but ultimately end up pretty neck and neck. Polls are starting to swing to Biden from Bernie in massive amounts and those don't even take into account all of the momentum of the last three days. FiveThirtyEight has Biden as more likely than Sanders to achieve a majority, although they put a contested convention at 61%, which is wild.

Texas is currently neck and neck, but Biden is running away with the South and only needs to keep it close in his losses in states like California (and hope Warren keeps it close in Massachusetts) to really have a good day.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 
Most Helpful

Went to Joe Biden rally yesterday in Dallas, TX and almost fucking fell asleep. He cucked Mayor Pete earlier in the day and I got to watch Klobuchar die slowly inside as she gave the endorsement, followed by off-key, quarter-throttled chants of "lets go joe!"... Beto, hot off several failed campaigns, showed up to endorse the Vice President as well.

I left 10-minutes into Biden. The dude is noticeably old. I don't think that of Bernie Sanders. I'm so bummed Bloomberg couldn't emerge from this weak ass candidate pool. Trump will beat the shit out Biden and I don't want to think about Bernie right now. Fuck, I might go vote Biden just to feed him to Trump / not Bernie.

If Trump would just acknowledge climate change and do our part (not even lead), I would vote for the guy.

 

Most people on WSO would consider me to be a liberal but even I can't support Sanders for multiple reasons. It might not matter by the time I vote. Assuming that Bloomberg is out of it and it is Bernie versus Joe, I would vote for Joe.

 

I attended a Trump rally last year and it was amazing how electrified the entire crowd was. People were coming out of themselves for a message that resonated so deeply to them (bizzare). The man is a master of working a crowd via gestures, stepping away from the podium to soak-up / stoke applause and an extremely sticky list of best hits he can play at any moment (e.g. "LOCK HER UP", "QUID-PRO-QUO", "CRA-Z-NAN-CY") to keep the crowd engaged.

Last night was fucking tired. Biden has visible lapses of memory recall, does not move around the stage and relies solely on the inflection of his voice to hype of the crowd. If you've been watching any of the recent DNC debates, Biden was the worst orator (sans Bloomberg), least excitable and least memorable. What about Biden gets you excited for the next four years?

I don't think I'm a complete sucker for political theater. I just think there has to be an energy and a charisma about the president. I think Bernie hits that much better than Biden does.

 
Controversial
dedline:
I attended a Trump rally last year and it was amazing how electrified the entire crowd was. People were coming out of themselves for a message that resonated so deeply to them (bizzare). The man is a master of working a crowd via gestures, stepping away from the podium to soak-up / stoke applause and an extremely sticky list of best hits he can play at any moment (e.g. "LOCK HER UP", "QUID-PRO-QUO", "CRA-Z-NAN-CY") to keep the crowd engaged.

Last night was fucking tired. Biden has visible lapses of memory recall, does not move around the stage and relies solely on the inflection of his voice to hype of the crowd. If you've been watching any of the recent DNC debates, Biden was the worst orator (sans Bloomberg), least excitable and least memorable. What about Biden gets you excited for the next four years?

I don't think I'm a complete sucker for political theater. I just think there has to be an energy and a charisma about the president. I think Bernie hits that much better than Biden does.

Yea bro, rallies decide elections. That's why Trump had a fluke win despite losing the popular vote by 3 million despite running against one of the most hated candidates in American history who was in the midst of an ongoing and public FBI investigation.

There's alot of delusion as to Trump's strength. Black vote will turn out for Biden (they didn't for HRC), and that alone might be enough for him to beat Trump.

Array
 
dedline:
I attended a Trump rally last year and it was amazing how electrified the entire crowd was. People were coming out of themselves for a message that resonated so deeply to them (bizzare). The man is a master of working a crowd via gestures, stepping away from the podium to soak-up / stoke applause and an extremely sticky list of best hits he can play at any moment (e.g. "LOCK HER UP", "QUID-PRO-QUO", "CRA-Z-NAN-CY") to keep the crowd engaged.

Last night was fucking tired. Biden has visible lapses of memory recall, does not move around the stage and relies solely on the inflection of his voice to hype of the crowd. If you've been watching any of the recent DNC debates, Biden was the worst orator (sans Bloomberg), least excitable and least memorable. What about Biden gets you excited for the next four years?

I don't think I'm a complete sucker for political theater. I just think there has to be an energy and a charisma about the president. I think Bernie hits that much better than Biden does.

I've never been to a Trump rally, but I was at the Trump election night party in NYC. It was one of the most surreal nights of my life. In a few hours, the mood at the ballroom went from somber to sheer ecstasy.

 

Isn't there basically no such thing as "winning a state" so to speak? The delagates are doled out roughly in line with popular vote. Subject to the fact that you only get delegates if you're over 15%. I think.

So it would seem to me that it's damn near impossible for anyone to get a majority. Bernie gets a large chunk, Biden gets a large chunk, Blooomberg said he's sticking it out for a while too.

That's 3 dogs at the bowl, not to mention some scraps that were already doled out to Booty, Warren etc. Seems like one of them would really have to take over the show to win a majority.

PredictIt shows odds of brokered convention at 53% now.

 
Pmc2ghy:
Biden is legitimately senile. It’s unbelievable to me that a supposedly serious party could nominate a man with early-stage dementia.

Have you heard Trump speak? Ever?

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 
Pmc2ghy:
Biden is legitimately senile. It’s unbelievable to me that a supposedly serious party could nominate a man with early-stage dementia.

This is almost too ironic to handle.

Array
 

For all you folks on the left I'm just curious, how do you feel about it? Assuming very few Bernie fans but hey, this is an anonymous forum, no reason to hide it.

For you guys who wanted Bloomberg, you OK with Biden? He may be near you on the left-right spectrum but isn't he weak in other ways? Didnt his son smoke crack over in Ukraine?

Personally, as a guy who only understands politics on a surface level (meaning I don't know the strategic angles like turning out your base and all that), I feel like y'all had a great shot with Bloomberg bc he would've stole a few Republican votes and Hillary only needed 1% more in the swing states.

 
CRE:
It is going to be a good day for Biden

Nailed it. Biden winning Massachusetts and Minnesota is absurd. He’ll take Texas by the end of the night.

Huge wins tonight for the center-left.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 
CRE:
CRE:
It is going to be a good day for Biden

Nailed it. Biden winning Massachusetts and Minnesota is absurd. He’ll take Texas by the end of the night.

Huge wins tonight for the center-left.

Fuck yes. Get a progressive younger VP like Kamala to reel in the lefty-leaning crowd, and rout Trump in November.

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."
 

I think the most shocking thing about this is that it proves Bernie's coalition is smaller than it was in 2016. He is literally less popular than he was 4 years ago. His campaign should be embarrassed that they had 4 years to bring in more supporters and were not able too. But i guess that can be blamed on tweets like "I've got news for the Republican establishment. I've got news for the Democratic establishment. You can't stop us". You will not win a democratic nomination by starting a war, instead of creating unity.

Bernie barely got 50% of the vote in his home state, where he is constantly heralded as the most popular senator of all time. Half the people in his home state went out and voted for someone else. Think about that.

Overall, I am very happy with a Biden presidency.

 

dude, even his polls are trolls.

"Which do you identify as? American / Socialist"

"Who will you vote for in November? President Trump / A Big Government Socialist"

"Who do you believe will win the 2020 Presidential Election? President Trump Crazy Bernie Sanders Quid Pro Joe Biden Elizabeth 'Pocahontas' Warren"

Such an asshole. I mean, just wow.

 

The whole point of trolling is to say outrageous things and laugh at the reaction. You get mad? The trolls win.

Trump doing this kind of stuff is a good portion of his appeal because people are fed up with political correctness. If libs are offended by a never ending list of things that increases every single day, then why should we accomodate them? Let's just fuck with them and laugh.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.
 

As a conservative, I am relieved that Biden exceeded expectations. The selfish part of me wanted to see a Bernie nomination so that Trump can crush him and socialism in a landslide victory and the GOP wins back the House. But as a patriotic American, I cannot risk even a slight chance of a lifelong communist becoming President of this great country. Biden is a liberal Democrat whose policies I strongly disagree with. Bernie is an enemy of the Republic, an existential threat.

Couple of observations:

-The Dems consolidating so quickly behind Biden after South Carolina was impressive, a sign of enormous party discipline. My guess is that Obama got on the phone with Pete and Amy and told them it's over. If it wasn't for early voting, Biden would have won every state except Vermont.

-I noticed this in the early states, and Super Tuesday further validated my thesis. Bernie is not expanding his base. He is stuck in the 25-30% range. He does very well with young voters and Latinos, but that's not enough to assemble a winning coalition. On economic issues, most Democrats actually agree with Bernie. But he is just a lousy politician. He's not likable, constantly rages about the establishment of a party whose support he needs, and unable to compromise or present a different face to the public. In 2016 Trump had no problem making adjustments on policies. Bernie is stuck in the socialist crusade mode and just doesn't know how to moderate. I mean for heaven's sake, it's not hard to give a speech where you renounce your past support of communist regimes, say that you support capitalism, and then pivot to areas where our current system can be improved to meet the needs of average Americans.

-Contrary to what the poster above said, I actually think Biden is a formidable opponent to Trump. 1) coronavirus could very well cause a recession, which will lead voters to blame Trump, 2) Biden will get higher black turnout than Hillary and will do very well with college educated white suburban voters, continuing the re-alignment that cost the GOP control of the House in 2018, 3) Biden will peel off some working class whites from Trump, 4) Biden will be seen as a return to normalcy by swing voters who are not fans of Trump but at the same would not vote for Bernie, 5) Biden's gaffes are baked in, as he is a familiar figure, and the public is well aware of his flaws.

 

On a separate but similar note, this really shows the intellectual degeneracy of early voting. There is a period for candidates to campaign and to make their case to the public, and the public is entitled to have all of the time to make up its mind. I'm a conservative Republican and if my candidate came out the day before the election as a credibly accused rapist or an agent of another country or as genuinely corrupt person I would withhold my vote or vote for the other guy. This is why I don't vote early. I want the maximum amount of time to make an informed vote, even if I expect to vote Republican.

Early voting makes no intellectual or moral sense--it seems like its only reason for being is to help the most organized campaign turn out its vote by giving it an extended period of time. It's basically incumbents making election laws that help incumbents (in the general). For a primary election, I simply see no reason for early voting. Let the candidates make their case up to election day.

Array
 
real_Skankhunt42:
I'm a conservative Republican and if my candidate came out the day before the election as a credibly accused rapist or an agent of another country or as genuinely corrupt person I would withhold my vote or vote for the other guy.

Legitimately can’t tell if you’re making a joke here given the examples you used.

Trump has been credibly accused of both sexual assault and being an agent for a foreign antagonist. Are you saying you’ll vote blue in November?

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

Totally agree with your point about Bernie being stuck at 25-30%. The way I see it - 35% is his absolute ceiling. He has been so consistently at those numbers because everyone who votes Bernie (for the most part) is an incredibly loyal and unwavering supporter. 30% looks great when you have 4 other people polling at 15%, not so great when the number in the race drops.

 

The other thing I'll say is that while I almost fully agree with your analysis, I don't think Biden's gaffes are baked into the cake. I actually think Joe Biden has relatively little name recognition. He was a nobody politician (outside Delaware) prior to becoming Obama's VP and he was totally overshaddowed by Obama. At the height of the Obama administration I doubt the average man on the street could have named the VP (and I think that's true with Mike Pence, too). In other words, I don't think Biden's anywhere near a floor of support--he's at 49% in the general election polls. I think there is a lot of room to fall for him.

Array
 
real_Skankhunt42:
The other thing I'll say is that while I almost fully agree with your analysis, I don't think Biden's gaffes are baked into the cake. I actually think Joe Biden has relatively little name recognition. He was a nobody politician (outside Delaware) prior to becoming Obama's VP and he was totally overshaddowed by Obama. At the height of the Obama administration I doubt the average man on the street could have named the VP (and I think that's true with Mike Pence, too). In other words, I don't think Biden's anywhere near a floor of support--he's at 49% in the general election polls. I think there is a lot of room to fall for him.

I don't think gaffes are a dealbreaker unless the gaffes reveals the candidate's "inner thoughts" regarding the electorate that are condescending. Examples are Romney's 47% comment and Hillary's deplorables. Biden's gaffes are cringe and comical, but they are not a poor reflection of his character. It is not clear to me that people who otherwise would have voted Biden over Trump will refrain from doing so because of the gaffes.

 
real_Skankhunt42:
The other thing I'll say is that while I almost fully agree with your analysis, I don't think Biden's gaffes are baked into the cake.

People don’t care about “gaffes” or meandering speeches. Trump got elected.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 

As another conservative I ultimately lean more toward rolling the dice and facing Bernie because he’s easier to beat and I think would also offer additional “outs” if he somehow won . . easier to oppose his agenda after he wins, better chance of winning midterms, better chance to beat him 4 years later.

I guess I just have a ton of faith in this country’s ability to ultimately see the idiocy of socialism. My concern with these ‘moderate’ lefties is that they get so much done.

I think of it this way. If I feel a Biden presidency is so much more tolerable than Bernie, it means I have a lot of faith in Republican politicians to not be gullible idiots who let these bad ideas slip by. I don’t know if they’re strong enough.

But I see where you’re coming from and will take the silver lining that at least we won’t have a full on communist in the White House.

 
FCFE:
Contrary to what the poster above said, I actually think Biden is a formidable opponent to Trump. 1) coronavirus could very well cause a recession, which will lead voters to blame Trump, 2) Biden will get higher black turnout than Hillary and will do very well with college educated white suburban voters, continuing the re-alignment that cost the GOP control of the House in 2018, 3) Biden will peel off some working class whites from Trump, 4) Biden will be seen as a return to normalcy by swing voters who are not fans of Trump but at the same would not vote for Bernie, 5) Biden's gaffes are baked in, as he is a familiar figure, and the public is well aware of his flaws.

Perfectly put, but sycophants refuse to see the obvious. The only question is whether this will be enough to win key Midwestern states or flip NC/Florida. I think the suburban vote/black turnout alone could flip Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan. Florida will definitely be tricky for Biden if he doesn't shore up his Hispanic support. But I suspect Hispanics are eager to vote against Trump no matter who the democratic candidate is.

Array
 
BobTheBaker:
<span class=keyword_link><a href=/resources/skills/valuation/free-cash-flow-to-equity-fcfe>FCFE</a></span>:
Contrary to what the poster above said, I actually think Biden is a formidable opponent to Trump. 1) coronavirus could very well cause a recession, which will lead voters to blame Trump, 2) Biden will get higher black turnout than Hillary and will do very well with college educated white suburban voters, continuing the re-alignment that cost the GOP control of the House in 2018, 3) Biden will peel off some working class whites from Trump, 4) Biden will be seen as a return to normalcy by swing voters who are not fans of Trump but at the same would not vote for Bernie, 5) Biden's gaffes are baked in, as he is a familiar figure, and the public is well aware of his flaws.

Perfectly put, but sycophants refuse to see the obvious. The only question is whether this will be enough to win key Midwestern states or flip NC/Florida. I think the suburban vote/black turnout alone could flip Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan. Florida will definitely be tricky for Biden if he doesn't shore up his Hispanic support. But I suspect Hispanics are eager to vote against Trump no matter who the democratic candidate is.

There is no doubt in my mind that Biden is way more formidable than Bernie. People who think Bernie beats Trump are smoking way too much weed.

Barring a major economic downturn, I feel pretty good about Trump winning FL, NC, OH, IA, and to a lesser extent WI. The 3 key states that worry me are AZ, MI, PA. In AZ the combination of Latinos and white liberal transplants from California could tip the state blue. MI is a weird state because you have Detroit and a huge rural population that can go either way in a given election. In PA the key question will be whether Trump's rural and exurban margins (especially in western PA given Biden's support of the Green New Deal and banning fracking) can outweigh Biden's margins in Philly, Philly suburbs, and Pittsburgh. Not sure yet.

 

The most hardcore progressives, i.e. the college students at expensive universities with tons of student debt and no marketable skills, are still vehemently "Bernie or Bust." Warren is the anti-Christ somehow both siphoning votes from Bernie while being a capitalist shill deep state neoliberal. I read today on a top voted Reddit post "A vote for Biden is a vote for Trump." The mysterious DNC is pulling strings in the shadows.

And finally, as you alluded to, these people want to see "the system burned down." They want an all-conservative Supreme Court to strike down abortion rights so that they can use it to take to the streets. They want to turn America into the Hong Kong protest and begin a permanent class struggle. They want Occupy Wall Street but with AK's.

Fortunately for global society, they are the most say-anything, do-nothing demographic in modern history as long as it involves 3D space.

Be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
 
Synergy_or_Syzygy:
The most hardcore progressives, i.e. the college students at expensive universities with tons of student debt and no marketable skills, are still vehemently "Bernie or Bust." Warren is the anti-Christ somehow both siphoning votes from Bernie while being a capitalist shill deep state neoliberal. I read today on a top voted Reddit post "A vote for Biden is a vote for Trump." The mysterious DNC is pulling strings in the shadows.

And finally, as you alluded to, these people want to see "the system burned down." They want an all-conservative Supreme Court to strike down abortion rights so that they can use it to take to the streets. They want to turn America into the Hong Kong protest and begin a permanent class struggle. They want Occupy Wall Street but with AK's.

Fortunately for global society, they are the most say-anything, do-nothing demographic in modern history as long as it involves 3D space.

Thus is what Conservatives used to believe until they found out that these people are an infestation in universities, HR departments and Silicon Valley in general. There's also no such thing as ''global society''.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.
 

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