Wana get a chat going in regards to the Next Decade of Finance and Investment Banking.
Where do you see wallstreet/bay street going?
More Jobs or less Jobs?
What areas of IB will transform drastically?
Last of all, if you feel that the Next Decade of Finance and IB is a Doom and Gloom scenario, where do you believe job growth will be (in north america, forget about chindia).
My personal opinion:
Large decrease in this area in all areas, way harder to land a gig with much lower pay than 5-10 years ago, and all the real millionaires and billionaires in the western world will come from Web 3.0 and those who will contribute to real economic growth (i.e. engineering).
Anyway, thats me starting it off, I'm extremely interested in hearing the opinions of those from WSO, specifically all of the top members, I'm looking at monty, happypants, edmundo, midas, etc
Happy Tuesday Evening
less jobs that deal with talking about money (finance) and more jobs that actually create something (manufacturing/engineering/health care)
Room for IPOs in your opinion or do you think the world has enough bankers already?
The need for bankers will decrease, with the amount of people that want to get in increasing causing the all-in comp to be a fraction of what it is now. I don't think finance is the future of america honestly
More In House deal makers and more outsourcing of more routine functions like DD and Valuation to cheaper Excel monkeys overseas
More or Less Boutiques in your opinion?
More ridiculous bullshit, such as those so called professional research analyst downgrading this company, but at the same time, another research analyst upgrading the same company. (AMD)
More people doing back office work; there will be an increase in compliance jobs. Front office people will work harder to bring $ the company while those back office people are enjoying and complaining about not making enough.
Another tech bubble, linkedin? Groupon? all those companies with no real value.
You sure about that...? I think Research is going to see a hugee amount of cutback in all honesty.
What part of front office do you feel will do the best?
Tech Bubble fursure, especially with mobile coming up strong on the scene
I see an increase in boutiques picking up bigger deals I also see the middle market industry soaring in the next decade or so.
I think the emergent banks like Nomura, Wells Fargo, have a good idea of how not to fuck up. I think they well play a major role in the "future of investment banking". I honestly don't think "finance" in general is going to flush away. We are finance guys and are JOB is to make a shit load of money and the ones that are good will continue to be successful. With that said, i also see more in-house deal making as corsaire mentioned, but mainly with f100-200 companies that have subsidiaries.
PE/VC/HF will still make money but competition will be increased. I believe mega funds will continue tapping into the middle market which in turns will create jobs, expand market, etc.
Emerging markets China,Singapore, Brazil, MENA will be (IS) the place to be for banking in my opinion.
That grammar made me vomit, you're paying for my dry-cleaning.
And I do hope you're not the future of banking or we really are fucked.
You fucking moron, instead of criticizing grammar, learn to say "we are really" instead of "we really are".
Piece of shit.
Less jobs over all in every industry. More jobs taken by technology and offshore labor. More trading because more is done over seas. More to deal with money and exchange with other countries. As you see exponential growth in population, and a decline in resources, you can only see the picture get more uncovered over the next decade. I mean your topic is very broad. Theres people who write whole books and documentaries on these kinds of things. Banking is not dead, there is money to be made in other areas... Don't sketch out
We already out-source some modelling to Mumbai. They get $11,000 a year, hard to argue with those sort of labour costs.
I see another financial bomb going off in 5-10 years...maybe even sooner. The Bernanke won't be Fed chairman, the masses will storm the gate, Glass-Steagal reinacted. More boutiques will spring up, since there'll always be a need for financing...especially since tech will continue to innovate.
Outside of finance...robots are going to take over the world (thanks Ray Kurzweil).
I think big banks will shrink but smaller boutique shops will pick up the pieces. I think that will create a large pay gap though. There will be guys at the top making millions even billions and guys at the bottom making between $70,000- $150,000 at the most. Finance as a field though will will never go away I'm sure of that.
Not saying its ever planning to fade away, but i strongly don't think it's the way of the future to make your millions anymore fellas.
With such turbulent times ahead, the Gordon gecko days are over!
I'm surprised that no-one on this post has mentioned the potential of web3.0 for entrepreneurs
But then again, this is WSO...
There will always be web3.0 entrepreneurs but as a numbers game, it won't make that many people wealthy. Whereas wall street has always survived crashes and massive lay-offs only to come back around and make a fucking load of money. 1987 market crash and IB layoff.....tech bubble money grab 1994-1999 and subsequent burst.....real estate bubble 2004-2008 and subsequent burst.
With IB, it's about getting your 4 or 5 good years, bank that fucking money and when the shit hits the fan, buy all the distressed assets you can, then repeat.
Short term I think we're already seeing a tightening of jobs in the financial sector. Long-term, I think we'll see the baby boomers start retiring which should (hopefully) spur more jobs which could boost the economy long term, bringing those jobs back. We're still a relatively young country and I don't think we've seen a giant growth pattern to the extent of other countries.
this. x2
Wall Street has had it's ups and downs....chances are that this won't be the "end" of it...in terms of a massive restructuring...what will happen though is people will retire lol!
I believe there will be more diversion between low and high paying jobs. Most middle managers will lose their jobs to technology. They will then be able to get lower payed jobs in the service sector, pampering the high earners who cannot be replaced by technology.
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