This could get very ugly, very quickly

I don't know how many of you monkeys have been following this situation surrounding the islands being disputed by China and Japan. The rhetoric coming from all parties has taken a pretty aggressive turn in the last few days.

China announced the air-defense identification zone effective Nov. 23 and said its military will take “defensive emergency measures” if aircraft enter the area without reporting flight plans or identifying themselves.

The U.S. flew two unarmed B-52 bombers into a disputed air-defense zone claimed by China, the first test of China’s response amid escalating tensions in the region that have implications for international air travel.

I'd like to hear people's take on how this will play out. I guess there is a good chance China does absolutely nothing with the U.S. backing Japan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/u-s-sent-b-52s-over-disputed-c…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-25/china-trades-barbs-with-u-s-ov…

 

This is going to be an opening for the loosening of Japan's civil defense force and rebuilding of their military. What Abe needs to juice his economy.

And will be good for US defense companies looking for another military to arm.

China is going to keep doing shit like this, testing the wire. Like the raptors in Jurassic park. Just waiting for a weakness. I AM glad the US responded quickly and definitively.

 
Best Response

@TNA:

I agree on the point about this being part of the reasoning behind a JDF expansion; Abe has touched this topic a number of times and this perfectly fits the bill of a factor he can attribute the need for an expansion to.

Defense firms profiting here is a given, as well.

What I'm not sure about is the thought of China "testing" their environment. I'm far more certain that this is the Party trying to assert China's power in the region. The reason they don't dispute shit with India is because nobody cares about winning a dispute with India, whereas if China were to win the Diaoyou/Senkaku islands/sea zone dispute it would be a major victory for their ability to influence foreign relations and international issues going forward.

Thoughts?

Edit:

What I mean to say is that at this point, stakes have gotten so high for both sides that backing out isn't possible or desirable.

Something else: OP is definitely sensationalizing lol.

in it 2 win it
 

I agree.

I just saw a report talking about Chinese buyers flooding into the SoCal market buying homes. This to me is either the tip of inflation or the Chinese housing market heating up. Combine this with wages increase and more people protesting and you have a government that worries about civil unrest.

IMO, authoritarian counties use national pride as a way to calm unrest. IE. Taiwan, these islands, etc. China is fast transitioning from a brown water navy to one that can project force. When this happens we all better watch out.

 

The CCP is getting nervous looking at their projected GDP. They haven't wanted to accept that allowing more civil freedoms will will lead to more domestic tranquility (their actual priority) than buying the citizens off with 17% annual growth to compensate for miserable living conditions. Now that growth is flagging, they're taking a walk down memory lane and falling back on the old totalitarian tack: rile the public up with some good old fashioned nationalism.

The U.S. has been building a security perimeter around China for a while now: Japan, Australia, the island chains, and India are all in cooperation. Juicing the system a bit with some sabre rattling can be good for business for a little while, but I'm pretty sure that China understands that no one will come out the winner in a war.

I highly doubt that Japan will build up much of anything in their military given that China will certainly see it as an arms race: and most mainlanders still harbor resentment against Japan dating back to WWII. We can support them all they want, but the last thing Japan wants is to provoke their neighbor. If China does build up their navy, my guess is that it will be used first and foremost in the protection of shipping lanes....or at least, that's their marketing strategy. The reality is that they're going to buy some new toys for their military and they want to be a world power. The good news is that their culture is inward faced and highly unlikely to want conquest: they want wealth and status more. Frankly, they don't consider other cultures to be worth conquering.

Several countries have taken to acting a fool and trash talking the U.S. as weak because the current administration isn't very hawkish. But rest assured, the US is in complete control of the geostrategic landscape, and anyone would be wise not to try and kid themself. Let them shoot their mouths off. Of all the nations that the US has ever squared off against, China is most likely to realize ahead of time the futility of unhealthy competition between us.

Personally, I'm still optimistic about the CCP loosening the reigns when they run all the scenarios and come to the conclusion that they need to get with the times.

TLDR: meh, no biggie, I rather wish I was a real estate broker in CA lately....they're making a friggin killing

Get busy living
 

I agree our sovereignty isn't at risk, but how far would we go to protect an ally. That's the question. I think this is just anti Japanese sentiment right now, but China is starting to flex their muscle more and more.

 

@IlliniProgrammer; Isn't MAD a bit dated at this point? That's some Cold War nuclear policy. Didn't Reagan or someone usher in "Star Wars" (i.e. NUTS, not a joke)?

People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for freedom of thought which they seldom use.
 
Anihilist:

@IlliniProgrammer; Isn't MAD a bit dated at this point? That's some Cold War nuclear policy. Didn't Reagan or someone usher in "Star Wars" (i.e. NUTS, not a joke)?

Nope.

The US and China both have easily enough missiles to overload our ABM systems.

ABM would work against a country like North Korea or Iran; maybe India.

It would probably not work against the UK, US, Russia, or China.

Would a genuine war between the US escalate into nuclear missiles flying? I don't know. I think that it's a possibility. It's possible the POTUS might rather have it over in 25 minutes rather than have a long drawn out war that he knew would accomplish the same. It's much more likely if China threatens to invade the 50 states.

 

@Magneton

I think your view is 100% correct. China is seeking to assert its power and Japan needs to defend its own influence in the region, but they're still trade partners and it will take a lot more than that to destroy the relationship (with obvious signs in global markets, as well).

@Anihilist

I wondered that myself at the mention of MAD; the concept is obviously still relevant but I don't think that the practical implications of nuclear warfare even need to be discussed given the state of foreign relations and nuclear policy in place now.

in it 2 win it
 

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