This is (probably) where the market is heading
Okay so (stock) markets have been going up with consistent gains for a very long time, with each notable pullback being a springboard for a higher high. We haven't seen the hit we've experienced from today to last week in a long time; there was no major catalyst, and the reports that came out last week weren't even that bad:
-Strong GDP report (4% rgdp increase compared to expected 2.3% increase)
-Earlier rate hikes becoming more of a reality - likely 2015 early Q2 (not bad news as I'll explain below)
-Strengthening dollar (commodities also downtrending -> lower inflation. Commodities are more sensitive to near-term inflation than CPI)
-Lukewarm job data (but by no means terrible)
The fact that Yellen is considering to raise rates, combined with the reasonably good economic reports, indicates that the economy isn't hitting the shitter. Bull markets don't die of old age, and have only crashed from:
1) recession (such as in 1990)
2) debt crisis (such as in 2007)
3) overvalued equity market (we're seeing traditional levels of growth finally return and earnings season wasn't horrible, and many analysts are arguing P/E metrics are still relatively typical, particularly in response to Yellen a few weeks ago).
(source: wsj moneybeat)
We're not seeing any of the above 3 right now. But the market certainly isn't cheap either.
Goldman Sachs predicted a near-term sell-off: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/07/25/goldman-turns-cautious-on-sto…
Were they right? We're seeing the beginnings of a sell-off and high-yield bonds are in a swamp right now.
Another prediction made by Goldman today: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/05/goldman-sachs-heres-what-will…
"Goldman predicts the S&P 500 will rise by about 8% over the next 12 months, which would take the stock index close to 2100. It closed Monday at 1939." Stocks typically rally in the months leading up to rate increase.
But what's causing the bearishness right now that Goldman might have predicted? A market that's been going up for too long? Did the market cry "wolf" again like it had for the past year or two? Stronger dollar -> more expensive stocks, theoretically causes people to sell? Slightly overvalued? It's likely a combination of these, along with other factors I probably missed.
My idea is that we'll see some decent amounts of selling in the rest of the summer with accelerated economic growth driving stocks in the fall in the months leading up to fed hikes. I mean, why would they raise rates earlier if the economy isn't doing well?
TL;DR:
-(fed hikes expected middle of 2015)
-near-term sell off due to strengthening dollar and tired and expensive equity market
-equities will rise steadily in autumn due to accelerated economic growth and
-months leading to rate increase almost always has a stock rally, followed by decrease
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