Interesting read on how the game last night traded...ideas on trading sports of live events?
CUBS WORLD SERIES GAME 7:
“Look at it this way: If you’re a cubs fan, the greatest day of your life has yet to come.”
Three game to one come back
Game 7
Extra Innings
Rain Delay
Two Run Lead Blown
Four Run Lead Blown
The game had a little bit of everything. Let’s take a look at how the markets traded the Cubs during their Game 7 win against the Indians.
Cubs Shares = Cubs to Win
Shares trade from $0 to $100
Wining shares will expire at $100
Losing shares will expire at $0
Premarket saw the Cubs as a slight favorite which brought buyers in right until the first pitch. The market opened with the Cubs trading at $51 (51% to win) and the Indians trading at $49 (49% to win). We saw the Cubs shares pressed up to almost $55 before the start of the game and the eventual Fowler home run which sent Cubs shares soaring to the $65-$68 range.
Bottom third, the Indians tied the game with the Santana single. Once the game tied itself it seemed like everyone was trying to find a bid for their Cubs shares creating a major sell off before ultimately finding support in the $48 neighborhood.
The $48 dollar support level makes sense because we know home teams have a slight advantage when it's a pick’em. So with a tied score and each team holding 18 out for the remainder of the game the traders gave the Indian shares a slight advantage with a $52 price.
The Cubs half of the fourth inning is when this game and market got fun. We all walked into the start of the inning with the cubs at $48 and Indians at $52 which set the market for the first major game event that forced traders to take a full position. A material price move after the runs scored gave anyone long the Cubs a nice profit.
The top of the fifth; didn't slow things down with the Baez HR and the Rizzo single to score Bryant. Another two runs seem to push the market to an early conclusion as buyers printed tickets in round $90 with the 5 to 1 Chicago lead. Once the market becomes polar trading north of $90 it opens up opportunities for players looking to speculate on a big comeback and begin to find value for more short term trades.
Bottom of the fifth; with a couple of baserunners and a wild pitch the market had another big event that saw Cub shares sell off with the lead now cut down to two (6-4). Cub shares held onto the $80 support and reward those buyers once Ross hit his home run in the top of the sixth inning. A flat Indian offense through seven innings and the three run lead left the market higher as Cub shares again broke the $90 mark. Indians coming to bat in their eight inning. Three runs down. Six outs left.
Bottom eight; Guyer doubles in a run. Market shrugs it off. Cubs hold at $90.
Bottom eight; Davis game tying HR. Market in CHAOS. Free falls as bids escape everyones screens. Cub shares finally find a bottom at $45.
Top nine; Cubs rally with some base runners pushing the price back into the $55-$65 range as traders look to find an entry level they can live with. But, the Cubs come up empty. Bigs again escape and don’t reappear until $40.
Bottom nine, Indians do nothing. Cubs showing $50. We’re back at a pick’em heading into the 10th and a rain delay.
Top 10th; Cubs start to rally. Each baserunner and extra base trends the market higher $5. Zobrist doubles in a run. (7-6) Cubs. Shares rip from $60 to $90. Add on an insurance run and the inning ends with a two run lead and a $96 price.
Bottom 10th; Indians try and stage a rally and add on a run and we do see a slight pull back on Cubs shares to $85 (a presumed spec play for those looking to get long another crazy ending with the Indians after cashing out their Cub shares. But the Indian cavalry doesn’t find its way home and it’s all but over.
The game. The series. The curse.
Cubs win.
Market closes.
CUBS $100
INDIANS $0
This is basically live sports betting fwiw. spreads / payouts for money lines change throughout the game
I think this site actually let's you trade like a prediction market, not in game betting. You are trading the crowd/market, not against the house.
Similar to Betfair in EURO.
Oh I didn't realize this was a real thing. Thought this was just a hypothetical scenario you created. Pretty cool idea but in the end there's really no difference in playing against the house versus the crowd/market. A counterparty is a counterparty
Right, but when the counterparty is the crowd there is a lot more room to find an edge as opposed to the house. Curious to see how well the markets trade. Liquidity will be king.
In theory betting markets should work the same as the stock market. The house sets the initial line and the spread moves based on money that goes toward one side or the other.
While this is interesting, it seems like its just a creative way to show money lines given your upside / downside is capped at either a $100 payout or loss of total money "invested" plus the juice or in this case commission that would go to the market.
I think it's going to be a tough hill to climb. I don't have stats but i'd imagine betting against the spread is much more popular and provides opportunities to middle bets which betting straight up doesn't offer.
The upside/downside of 100 is based off of the win probability of an outcome, i.e. 0-100%.
This specific site doesn't trade the games with shares as a security, rather you trade for a trading P&L for each event. So it works more like a tournament. Players with the highest P&L at the end of each event would be declared the winners. Looks like top 20% will pay out on their website.
It gives players the ability to trade and take positions in real time, so you can change your position in a game at anytime.
Agreed, I don't think it will take away anyone's interest in gambling but could be an interesting compliment to a game if you are able to play and trade in real time against other people in the market.
Got it. I def misunderstood the concept. Do you guys have a link to this? I'd love to check it out.
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