Best Response

Let's see who else they get on board besides GS and BAML. I found this to be a very interesting angle:

By submitting a filing under the Jumpstart Our Business Startups, or Jobs Act, Twitter will be taking advantage of a US law signed last year by President Barack Obama intended to induce more companies to tap the country’s public markets. Specifically, companies with less than $1bn in annual revenues can keep their securities filings confidential until three weeks before the launch of an investor roadshow.

and

...the seven-year-old San Francisco company has contained the flow of information about its own IPO in the hopes of avoiding the hubris that tripped up its larger rival, Facebook.

Looks like the FB IPO did more "damage" than anyone thought...

Source: FT.com

I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough to have your own jet. Rich enough not to waste time. Fifty, a hundred million dollars, buddy. A player. Or nothing. See my Blog & AMA
 

I feel like twitter should be worth more than facebook

You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
 

6 months ago I would've agreed with you, but they've started getting their asses in gear at FB with some of the major ad-sales issues. I dunno if they're worth the valuation, but I've got much higher hopes for them now than I did at IPO

"You stop being an asshole when it sucks to be you." -IlliniProgrammer "Your grammar made me wish I'd been aborted." -happypantsmcgee
 

Look forward to seeing twitter go down hill all the way.

“It is our fate to be tormented with large and small dilemmas as we daily wind our way through the risky, fractious world that gave us birth” Edward O. Wilson.
 

Twitter sucks, cant wait to see it burn.

I hope this is better than the last batch of shit you gave me. Produced more wood than Ron Jeremy. I don't want you to yell, "Reco!" anymore. Know what you should yell? "Timber!" Yeah, Mr. Fuckin' wood.
 

Know what happened when FB went live on NASDAQ I wonder what exchange their going to choose.......could be fun to watch the NYSE and NASDAQ jostile for this high profile IPO.

Give me a kid whose smart, poor, and hungry...............
 

So is it a good stock to short? At least in the beginning?

"I do not think that there is any other quality so essential to success of any kind as the quality of perseverance. It overcomes almost everything, even nature."
 

Weird that they don't have to file IPO prospectus till 21 days before offering. Also, a shit ton of articles about it on qz.com

People demand freedom of speech as a compensation for freedom of thought which they seldom use.
 

a lot of people were saying short fb too when it was coming out

You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
 

Twitter isn't going anywhere. Have you guys who don't like Twitter even thought about exploring how useful it is?

It is a phenomenal news source. The raid that captured Osama Bin Laden was live tweeted during the event, 9 hours before the guy realized what he was specifically Tweeting about. In many instances it can be more useful than Google when researching specific things. Not only can you find the most current information, but you have direct access to the subject-matter experts.

This is all coming from a guy who recently started using Twitter, I barely know how to use it. I'm excited to become more savvy with it. Also, I used to hate Twitter. I still hate the misuse of hashtags, but I'm mostly shielded from it as I don't use Twitter socially. My dog just farted.

When a plumber from Hoboken tells you he has a good feeling about a reverse iron condor spread on the Japanese Yen, you really have no choice. If you don’t do it to him, somebody else surely will. -Eddie B.
 
SureThing:

Twitter isn't going anywhere. Have you guys who don't like Twitter even thought about exploring how useful it is?

It is a phenomenal news source. The raid that captured Osama Bin Laden was live tweeted during the event, 9 hours before the guy realized what he was specifically Tweeting about. In many instances it can be more useful than Google when researching specific things. Not only can you find the most current information, but you have direct access to the subject-matter experts.

This is all coming from a guy who recently started using Twitter, I barely know how to use it. I'm excited to become more savvy with it. Also, I used to hate Twitter. I still hate the misuse of hashtags, but I'm mostly shielded from it as I don't use Twitter socially. My dog just farted.

I agree with this. If you are using it as a news source, from anything to local news to sports, it can be incredibly useful. If you are using it simply as the status feature on facebook, it is a waste of time. Unless you are a celebrity.

You're born, you take shit. You get out in the world, you take more shit. You climb a little higher, you take less shit. Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like. Welcome to the layer cake, son.
 

At $583mm in revenue, they'll price it at $10bn and it will probably drift up to $12-$15bn. That would put it at 20-25x sales on par with Yelp or Linkedin.

Please note I'm not saying that is an appropriate model for these businesses. Its just what they seem to be trading at in the market.

Also, to those who say short at the gate, you're better off going to the roulette table.

 

Twitter is here to stay. Buy and hold. Won't blow up overnight, but there is definitely a solid revenue model and the projections are nearly a billion next year and 1.33 billion the next. Mobile ad revenue is exploding. There's no way I'd short this at launch.

"When you stop striving for perfection, you might as well be dead."
 
EvanM:

Twitter is here to stay. Buy and hold. Won't blow up overnight, but there is definitely a solid revenue model and the projections are nearly a billion next year and 1.33 billion the next. Mobile ad revenue is exploding. There's no way I'd short this at launch.

Even 20x at next year's projections put it at 20 billion plus. I like the odds here.

"When you stop striving for perfection, you might as well be dead."
 

Once Twitter turns a profit I'd be interested, until then, I struggle to understand how they are losing so much money with the revenue and revenue growth they are seeing and for that reason I'll probably just watch this one pan out. Once they break even and enter profitability, however, their profits will likely grow at a rate much higher than that of their revenue growth. At the point it will be nice to be long, but until then, I have reservations about management and growing the user base. moms can use facebook, but twitter is a bit of different beast.

If we blame others for our failure then we should also give them credit for our successes.
 

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