Update on Real Estate Market in where you are located? (Mostly interested in NYC but open to all answers)

Hey everyone, from my understanding we are currently dropping from the peak of commercial real estate in NYC because of the poor performances of retail, and small businesses. Thoughts from your locations?

Comments (13)

Jul 5, 2017

Prudential has stopped giving construction loans for MF in DFW. Oversupply is only about 2%, but we've been putting out a ton of product, makes sense to pump the brakes.

Anecdotally, my retail shop just had to take out may have to take out some mezz debt for the first time. Lenders seem to be slowing down across the board.

I come from down in the Valley, where Mr. when you're young, they bring you up to do like your daddy done.

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Jul 6, 2017

Orlando - Meh. It's a relatively small market when compared to NYC, SF, Chicago, etc etc. However it does have exceptional job growth and population growth. Just a matter of time before it booms. imo None of the big players are in town which is a problem. Eastdil, Goldman, Deutsche etc etc.

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Jul 6, 2017

NYC - deals do not make sense anymore for developers. I am seeing a ton of deals being passed around the table at crazy numbers. Even in the "emerging markets" of NYC (Brooklyn, Long Island City, etc) deals are hard to find. Sellers want developers to pay for pricing 2-3 years down the road today and all pricing expectations are out the window.

Jul 7, 2017

+1 on Rekid123 with addition of stabilized assets: there is a huge disconnect between the bricks and the cash flow in even the NYC emerging markets. Perhaps parts of the Bronx are the exception here, but there is much less 10-20 year growth/appreciation in those respective areas, etc.

Best Response
Jul 15, 2017

Pretty detailed article from NREI on the Southeast fundamentals:

TL; DR Summary: The Southeast is white hot with population and job growth. All property types are performing well and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future.

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Jul 17, 2017

Great article, thanks for sharing

Jul 17, 2017

DC Office market is slow this year, both for leasing and investment sales, compared to 2016. Below average job growth, tenant downsizing, and uncertainty over government spending are all factors influencing the market. However, there is still some small rent growth.

Developers are pushing forward - the pipeline started the year with around 6.3 million SF, has delivered ~350,000 SF, and with shovels still hitting the ground, the pipeline is back up to about 6.8 million SF, much of this is set to deliver by 2019. Nearly all of this new development will be trophy quality space. There is speculation as to how well the space will lease given the market's current performance and the ever replenishing pipeline that produces only top-notch space.

Not every tenant needs a trophy quality building. With the pipeline renovating lots of well located Class B buildings into trophy assets, the number of affordable B buildings will dwindle and that product should perform well.

My 0.2 cents on D.C. only. VA/MD have their own stories.

Jul 17, 2017

The article @DetRustCohle posted here is spot on. I'm in a secondary market in the South and jobs are growing, cost of living is low, and millennials and older folks alike are both flocking to urban areas. Secondary urban markets in the South definitely seem healthy.

Jul 18, 2017

Denver is fucking retarded, go for it.

Jul 18, 2017
Jul 18, 2017

If you were dying you would try harder.

Here's a good start:

Google --> [City/Market] + [Asset Class] + Market Report

This would have led you to all of the major broker's reports steam pointed out above.

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Jul 18, 2017