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Comments (129)

Oct 13, 2021 - 3:40pm

It means "Gravy On Yo biscuits"

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

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Oct 15, 2021 - 10:41pm

I think most people thought it was guy misspelled.

I did not know the meaning until Drumpfy mentioned it.

Array

Oct 13, 2021 - 1:36pm

Inflation is definitely here, seen a laundromat paying an extra 1200 a month for ppl to fold towels. Groceries feel more expensive, gas is fuckedย 

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Oct 13, 2021 - 12:03pm

The inflation scare is just an excuse for Republicans to vote against infrastructure, education, and healthcare that benefits Americans.ย  It's not even that bad and mostly caused by high demand for prices that went down during COVID.

Oct 13, 2021 - 12:14pm

not that bad?

housing up to levels never seen, many americans now cant buy homes

rent in nyc is higher than pre covid levels

cars are out of control

groceries are out of control

gas is UP UP UP, gas over 5 bucks a gallon in ny area

education costs are up over 5% as always

damn seamless delivery is up and out of control

yeah but buying my kids socks at walmart isnt that much more expensive YoY.ย  Thanks Biden for this wonderful economy and not tweeting mean things.

Oct 13, 2021 - 12:19pm

Except less people were living in major cities, using gas, or buying houses during the pandemic.ย  So naturally it's spiking.ย  Republicans are using this as an excuse to screw over their voters like they did when they got rid of the Obamacare mandate, or when they made Bezos pay 0$ in taxes, or.... the list goes on

Oct 13, 2021 - 12:20pm

baddealflow12

not that bad?

housing up to levels never seen, many americans now cant buy homes

rent in nyc is higher than pre covid levels

cars are out of control

groceries are out of control

gas is UP UP UP, gas over 5 bucks a gallon in ny area

education costs are up over 5% as always

damn seamless delivery is up and out of control

yeah but buying my kids socks at walmart isnt that much more expensive YoY.ย  Thanks Biden for this wonderful economy and not tweeting mean things.

Why are you blaming Biden?ย  He does not control monetary policy and he has only been partially in control of fiscal policy for like 9 months.ย 

  • Teller in PE - Other
Oct 14, 2021 - 8:55am

baddealflow12

not that bad?

housing up to levels never seen, many americans now cant buy homes

rent in nyc is higher than pre covid levels

cars are out of control

groceries are out of control

gas is UP UP UP, gas over 5 bucks a gallon in ny area

education costs are up over 5% as always

damn seamless delivery is up and out of control

yeah but buying my kids socks at walmart isnt that much more expensive YoY.ย  Thanks Biden for this wonderful economy and not tweeting mean things.

Gas is about $3.25 in and around NYC except for some notorious ripoff stations. The inflation crowd is always so hysterical.

Oct 14, 2021 - 10:33pm

baddealflow12

not that bad?

housing up to levels never seen, many americans now cant buy homes

Hey!ย  That's me!

Go, Go, Excel

Oct 15, 2021 - 9:37am

Natural gas is up, meaning nitrogen-based fertilizers up like 3x, corn production cost up 3x ... food prices are up like 50% from 2 years agoย 

Oct 21, 2021 - 8:00am

Are you buying at 10th and 16th? Fill up in Jersey dude.

The only difference between Asset Management and Investment Research is assets. I generally see somebody I know on TV on Bloomberg/CNBC etc. once or twice a week. This sounds cool, until I remind myself that I see somebody I know on ESPN five days a week.
Nov 4, 2021 - 11:53pm

Hold up hold up hold up. I agree with you that the situation is fucked and likely to get worse but I live in NYC dogโ€ฆ gas isn't over $5 a gallon yet loll last I filled up I think like $3.60 but word

Oct 13, 2021 - 12:16pm

The Fed might act sooner than expected but my crystal ball is just as foggy as that of the next guy.

  • Associate 1 in IB - Cov
Oct 13, 2021 - 12:18pm

Gas price from last year is a shitty comp. It's up 22% from this time 2019. Still a lot not arguing there but it bothers me when people use 2020 as a comp as if it was normal.

  • Associate 2 in PE - Other
Oct 13, 2021 - 12:45pm

Gas price is kind of a garbage inflation comp in general - it fluctuates way more based on near-term supply factors than long-term inflation.

I'm not inherently opposed to looking at it because it is a major daily expense for your average person and basically all consumer goods are subject to commodity pricing pressures, but it's gone +/- ~50% multiple times since 2007 and is still like 40% below 2012 levelsโ€ฆ that just reflects volatile underlying commodity prices, not macro inflation

Oct 13, 2021 - 1:09pm

Natural gas prices are up 268% YoY. That's not a natural fluctuation. That's a supply chain issue caused by bad global public policy and that's the kind of thing that f*cks the poor and middle class.

Array

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Oct 13, 2021 - 5:05pm

LOL, you know that fuel makes up about 10% of the average persons budget. Right?ย  The idea that it shouldnt be included in inflation is a joke.ย  The amount it moves is just part of reality.ย  The four biggest things that people spend money on over the course of the life are not included in the official inflation metrics.ย ย 

Nov 5, 2021 - 2:11am

Gas prices are garbage for a technical analysis of inflation but I would argue it is one of the more powerful psychological variables. Gas prices are brightly displayed on every street and people pay attention at the pump to prices more than anywhere else.

  • Associate 2 in PE - Other
Oct 13, 2021 - 12:49pm

Everyone loves that their portfolio and salaries are up, no one realizes expected price increases are being priced inโ€ฆ

Most Helpful
Oct 13, 2021 - 1:07pm

I said back in March 2020 (maaaaybe April 2020) that the Covid panic was not worth it, that we would end up causing more net harm. "You're just a heartless murderer who WANTS PEOPLE TO DIE!" I said that society needed to protect the vulnerable the best we could and press on with life, that shutting down the global economy was going to turn out bad and potentially cause a lot of younger people in America and poorer people globally to die.

I didn't foresee endless inflation, but it definitely should have been apparent to the "smartest people in the room" that obliterating the supply chain and paying people not to work would reduce supply and push up prices.

Array

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Cov
Oct 13, 2021 - 1:21pm

It's been in our faces, since lockdown and mask mandates went into effect, that our economy would see absolute turmoil. Of course, lockdown-supporting liberals are retarded and will never admit it. That's why they keep coming up with more variant hype. It's to distract from the fact that COVID was a total media-manufactured crisis and the damage our country has taken will end up accelerating our country's demise beyond anyone's pre-covid imagination.

Oct 13, 2021 - 5:00pm

This isn't about the U.S. I was very specific and deliberate when I said "the global economy." World leaders in nearly every country engaged in bad public policy.

Array

Oct 20, 2021 - 10:27am

Funny - I'm just reading "Geopolitcal Alpha" by Marko Papic and he mentions similar points. Shows some statistics about how the economic implications of the EU crisis led to increasing deaths in greece.. I think we will see a similar effect in future.

Oct 13, 2021 - 1:23pm

A bunch of first-level thinking Trumpers are going to use this as an easy chance to bash Biden, but as the smartest young minds in finance, I'd challenge you to articulate: what are the specific Biden policies that have caused this?

Supply chain disruptions have been an issue since the global economy shut down when Covid started, and the government has been wild spenders since Clinton. Trump promised to erase the national debt, and instead passed unprecedented spending packages for a Republican and grew the deficit another $8 trillion. Jerome Powell has printed so much money that his money printers are now a meme on this site and all the copycat finmeme accounts.ย 

For those that would argue it's due to CARES Act direct payments, you're going to have to explain why nearly all developed countries have seen inflation trend upwards this year. (hint - overwhelmingly due to Covid recovery/supply chain issues)

So again for the "Let's Go Brandon" crowd (yawn) - what specific policies can be solely attributed to "Joe Biden's economy" that have caused this inflation?ย 

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

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Controversial
Oct 13, 2021 - 5:14pm

thebrofessor

noticed you changed your title to PE, would love to hear a recap of your journey away from IB and back to finance

anyway, agree, POTUS has little to nothing to do with this, the first level thinking is what I'd expect from 85 year old widow clients who never took an econ class, not people who want to be masters of the universe

I wouldn't say "little-to-nothing." Nearly all of the worst performing states economically are Democrat-run states presently and nearly all of the best performing states economically right now are Republican-run states. That's not mere coincidence. The reality is, POTUS and his wing men in the media are pushing panic porn and paying people to stay home; this is f*cking up Dem-led economies and, for everyone else, it is contributing to labor shortages and thus supply shortages and thus higher prices. Inflation may be a drag on the entire global economy, but the best way to counter inflation is for the economy to grow ahead of it. Bad inflation policy would be to engage in policies that hurt economic growth in the face of rising inflation.

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Oct 13, 2021 - 5:28pm

full disclosure - I didn't vote for biden nor any democratic congressional people in 2020 and think he's an idiot. that said, I'm sick and tired of half baked takes trying to describe how much politics affects things as mysterious as inflation

inflation is at a country wide level, not just state wide, so that's a bit of a stretch to compare those two. I could also say "the only times we've had a recession in the past 30 years have been under republican presidents, that's not mere coincidence." actually, it could be mere coincidence, so much of life is random. like I could easily point fingers at LBJ and JFK for leading to the horrible economic times of the 1970s, but how can one know that it wasn't other presidents' policies like Ike that led to overvaluations in the late 60s combined with Nixon being another idiot.

but the problem is this - inflation is very mysterious, it comes and goes, waxes and wanes, and can be both from short term supply shocks which are difficult to argue as one person's fault, or structural forces which could be the fault of many generations. the issue is all we see is higher prices, the higher prices don't tell us if it's because of democratic governors' covid policies, trump's handling of the pandemic leading to those policy reactions, decades of deficit spending by both parties, and more.

maybe it's no one's fault, maybe it's everybody's fault, but I believe one thing - that it's highly unlikely that a complex problem has a simple answer like "ITS THIS POLITICAL PARTY AHHH"

Oct 13, 2021 - 6:27pm

You literally didn't even read what i wrote. Your response is nonsense.ย 

Array

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Oct 14, 2021 - 9:06am

now you're wading into the territory of soros's theory of reflexivity, or that we simply will it into existence. interesting to be sure, but it fails to have a necessary property of all scientific theories - it must be falsifiable

since I'm not sure I ever answered my favorite question "so what?" and I think the answer to that is protect yourself by living below your means and having a portfolio that could do well in an inflationary environment (e.g. avoiding long duration assets), help the less fortunate through philanthropy focused on economic independence so they have "pricing power" when it comes to their own financial wellbeing, as well as voting for politicians who have an interest in ensuring those without a portfolio don't become destitute because of inflationary pressures

Oct 13, 2021 - 5:38pm

thebrofessor

noticed you changed your title to PE, would love to hear a recap of your journey away from IB and back to finance

Wrote about my leave from IB here and will probably do another post once I hit the one year mark -ย https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/reflections-on-leaving-ib-after-โ€ฆ

Haven't switched jobs since, just thought the PE-Other moniker fit better than the Corp Dev (PE portfolio company executive)

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

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Oct 14, 2021 - 2:55pm

Biden not knowing where he is doesn't mean his puppeteers aren't to blame.

Remember those green certificates to placate investors and be classified as Esg I mentioned? I did say they cost an extra throughout the entire supply chain that would end up being paid by consumers, didn't I? I'm not saying they explain all of the inflation spike but they are the only factor staying long term.

Our beloved liberal elite loves the mantra of not letting a good crisis go to waste and they worked hard to create the Esg fad combined with supranational treaties and various government regulations.

Build Back Better and all that. Enjoy the bill

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.

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Oct 13, 2021 - 5:11pm

Well for one the new vaccine mandate.ย  I mean that has directly caused the cancelation of tens of thounds of flights in about a week.ย  So there is that.

But more generally the spending that this country is doing is being driven by the Potus.ย  That is directly leading to the inflation.ย  Even if the spending bills never get passed the inflation is already priced into the market.ย 

Oct 13, 2021 - 6:09pm

PEarbitrage

Well for one the new vaccine mandate.ย  I mean that has directly caused the cancelation of tens of thounds of flights in about a week.ย  So there is that.

But more generally the spending that this country is doing is being driven by the Potus.ย  That is directly leading to the inflation.ย  Even if the spending bills never get passed the inflation is already priced into the market.ย 

(Lord Jesus give me the strength to stop arguing with people half my age...)

The Southwest sick-out rumor has been debunked by the CEO himself -ย https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwests-flight-disruptions-are-jusโ€ฆ

How could....a not yet enacted federal vaccine mandate retroactively cause inflation? facepalm.gif

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Cov
Oct 15, 2021 - 6:06pm

You're missing the bigger picture. The single greatest policy failure from Biden on the economy was when he supported nationwide lockdowns. All of these supply chain issues wouldn't have taken place had we not allowed the media to lock us in our homes for a year, and democrats like Biden were the biggest proponent of literally shutting down business and acting surprised when they closed doors permanently six months later.

If you want to say that this was justified, because you feel COVID is that serious of a disease, then that's fine. However, these are the economic conditions that you have sowed and now Biden will reap them, even if the majority-retarded American population can't pinpoint the hypocrisy in their beliefs of being pro-lockdown and anti-recession.ย 

Oct 13, 2021 - 1:26pm

I'm glad our elites think the Weimar Republic was a fun time that should be emulated.

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn

Oct 13, 2021 - 4:59pm

that's because a bunch of dipshits who create microchips decided to cancel orders from chinese factories early covid

demand increased instead of decreased, those factories started producing other shit, and now you can't get a new car (so used car prices are exploding)

used car prices going up is not inflation, it's a supply crunch

that said, there is definitely real inflation in this economy - just the people who say that used cars or gasoline are examples are idiots

Oct 14, 2021 - 10:49pm

that's because a bunch of dipshits who design cars decided to include lots of tech that requires microships.

Outside of safety features and a radio, what else do we need? I don't need my car manufacturer to increase the price of my car so it can install cameras to spy on me while I'm driving, scrape my text messages and calls to send them to the manufacturer, collect my location data sell it to the highest bidder, or track when I'm going 2 miles over the speed limit so my car insurance can use that info against me if I ever get in an accident.

I guess people just like paying money to get f***d in the ass.

Go, Go, Excel

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Oct 13, 2021 - 3:42pm

I went out to a restaurant on Saturday and it had a note attached to the menu that said "due to global supply shortages and rising inflation, we have applied an additional 4% surcharge."

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

Oct 13, 2021 - 5:24pm

Beyond these base numbers, shadow inflation is a serious consideration we should think about, too. Even paying the same price, many businesses have offered inferior or shrunken products in the name of pandemic safety. Hotels won't clean rooms, flights offering more limited food and beverage services, restaurants taking longer and sometimes limiting menu size. I get many of these are discretionary costs, but it's still a real concern. Compare services you get now to those you did in 2019. The difference is obvious, and it doesn't look like it's improving. If we never push to truly get back to normal, these trends won't improve. People need to get back to work, and to start living normally without fear. We can't be sheltered forever, we have the vaccine. Either get it or don't, but both groups have to accept some risk in their lives. We still drive cars, we still drink alcohol, we can't not live life out of fear of a small chance to lose it. If we do, our lives will continue to become less meaningful and enjoyable. At some point, we have to push back. I hope people will eventually see what's happening and recognize things these are interconnected to lockdowns.

  • Prospect in RE - Comm
Oct 13, 2021 - 7:07pm

on god bro. taco bell used to sell their $5 chalupa box with a burrito, chalupa, chips, AND a soft taco, but now they took the soft taco away from the $5 box. You have to pay 6 DOLLARS to get the box with the soft taco now. Absolutely insane and quite disappointing to be honest. thats a 20% increase for the same thing

Oct 14, 2021 - 5:19pm

They should have both the Taco Bell Index and the Big Mac Indexย 

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

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  • PM in HF - Other
Oct 13, 2021 - 11:47pm

You cannot say the blue states are a failureโ€ฆwhen by design they have chose to "overspend on innovation." You cannot say inflation is rampant when every millennial on here wants to go do growth equity. The reality is todays youth are making a conscious decision to spend on a world they want and AMZN/NFLX inflation has way worse and they take it. Avocado toast still love it. Not sure why we think some high gas prices are going to make them change their thoughts.

Lastly how many times did Trump bring up the "trillion dollar club of companies from the blue states". Even Donald knew.

Oct 14, 2021 - 4:48am

The liberalx told you that "meat should become luxury", didn't they? You don't want to eat expensive chemical high fat low protein fake meat? They will nudge you into the right direction. You can try bugs too.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.

Oct 14, 2021 - 11:09am

Inflation is not good, and stagflation is worse. Take a look at the 1970s bear market, largely precipitated by energy shortages leading to high energy prices in a low growth environment. Worst bear market since the Great Depression (-48% peak to trough). Things are basically trending in that same direction today as GDP growth will likely slow from here while costs are continuing toย rise. All signs point to the fact recent rising costs are not "transitory", and messed up global supply chains will probably take at minimum a year to sort through.

I hope we don't experience a repeat of the 1970s macroeconomic environment.

Oct 14, 2021 - 2:30pm

This is the most terrifying scenario IMO.ย 

Oct 14, 2021 - 10:39pm

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Go, Go, Excel

Oct 14, 2021 - 10:35pm

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Go, Go, Excel

Oct 15, 2021 - 5:03pm

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