US recession in 2-3 yrs: Which HF strategy / type most likely to outperform / survive?

Hi fellow monkeys!

I am not experienced in the HF industry. Ray Dalio commented & there has been talks about US coming into recession in 2-3 years or earlier.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-12...
Strategy & investing style
Which type of HF strategy & type of HF that you think will perform best / most likely to survive that? I would imagine those which are more nimble with their investment strategies. Seems like for larger funds, it's harder to generate return the larger you become and the less nimble you are with your investing (entry / exit or just changing your thesis with the unpredictable market condition).

Do you think trade-oriented / shorter term oriented funds (holding of <1 year) will perform better than longer term fundamental investing funds (>1 year holding)?
**
Sector focused vs generalist sector fund?**
Energy fund was hit the most during oil price downturn. Tech focused funds, especially those which are highly leveraged and riding with overvalued growth stocks, a few saw a big decline in their value. Would it be safer to work for generalist sector funds that sector focused funds instead?

Multi strategy vs L/S
For multi strategy funds, just taking the recent closures in Q4, it's harder to manage risks of different groups in an unpredictable market.

Comments (1)

Dec 30, 2018