Disclaimer: Novice monkey asking terrible questions ahead while shitting bricks. Kindly avoid the obvious paranoid and desperate undertone.
I have been hearing about this again and again – first it was Howard Marks, now it’s Stockman (former Budget Director). Everyone seems to have agreed that USA is all set to get into a recession sometime by the end of this year, next year or the year after that. Looking at the S&P graph going only up YoY, it’s obvious that it needs to slow down.
Yours truly has a little problem here – I plan to enter the USA job market with my MSF next year. Hence, a few obvious questions for the generous monkeys out there:
- From a ground zero perspective, what would be the propensity of this coming recession?
- Once it is clear that the USA economy is in recession, how will it impact the entry-level job market especially in the asset management and investment banking industries?
- Are there any specific states within the American economy which are relatively less vulnerable to financial services job-loss due to recession? If yes, which would be the top three states in this category?
- Do you expect to see a domino effect of the American recession on the Canadian economy? If yes, would this impact be similar, heavier or lighter in terms of degree of the recession impacting the financial services industry?
Hi DisGuyDucks, no, I never sleep and so I can respond to any lonely threads (like this one) at all hours of the night. Impressive, I know ;-)
Hope that helps.
Good questions. Here's my opinion-- take it with grains of salt.
1- So far, most experts are implying a light-to-mild recession. Banks and companies are in "good shape" (lots of cash flow, lots of cash, record revenues and profits recently), though some sectors and asset classes will likely be hit hard (energy, levered loans, etc.). 2- Rates tend to jack up right before/during the start of a recession, which impacts financing plans for many deals-- most firms will be hit hard, some firms will do ok (banks in general are long the economy via credit risk) 3- Probably California, Washington, DC-area due to diversified economies 4- If the US enters a recession, it'll likely pull the rotw with it (especially Canada); Canada's banking and financial services sector is considered to be "well managed", however, making the degree of impact less than what employers in the US would experience
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