Wanting to do a bit of trading for intrest factor.
Hey guys, I have an interest in doing some trading. I have been looking at currency, energy and futures. I am wondering what you guys would suggest I focus on. Currency is prob the best bet due to its 24/7 market hours. I will have to focus on trading after I get off from my day job.
Interested in what you guys think.
Subd. I'm in Europe and in grad school, so I might get some decent liquidity after class. I'm looking at corn and gasoline spreads as well as eurodollar calendars. I think the first two products would be good to learn technicals, etc.. Eurodollar spreads are very fundamentally driven I hear. I'm just trying to get through my exams before I really delve into this.
between currency and energy...i think currency is a better bet...energy is a highly specialized sector that many people dont understand (amateur investors). There are specific factors that dictate how nat gas futures are traded and at what level...futures with different expiry dates cannot be compared to one another due to shifting usage and weather patterns. Furthermore, most research and news information that comes out is usually dated and you will almost always find yourself behind the information curve. Sure you can make a bet that its going to be colder next month than its comparative month last year, but that just pure gambling and you're not making an educated decision.
Im personally not a fan of currency trading, primarily because i think its highly difficult to make decent money on it. With limited time, i'd rather focus on merger names. analyze one sector, regulatory requirements, and bet on the spread accordingly.
Trading is stupid. For more on this, see mark cuban.
http://online.wsj.com/video/cuban-on-investing-diversification-is-for-i…
This is to keep my sanity after I retire.
currency, energy and futures. and currency futures.
People get torn up trading currency. Not something to dabble in.
I'm not worried about loosing money, I don't want to but I am going to need something challenging to keep my sanity after I retire. I want to get it down before I have the time to go at it full time.
Keep tight stops.
I would personally focus on options. Lots of inefficiency (thank you, Black-Scholes). Although commodities are pretty fucked up these days. I hear the stupidest theses on trading rationale. Seriously, there are trips taking investors out to corn fields in Iowa where they take a tape measure to a few plants and trade on it. Maybe you can trade against those idiots.
Those people you consider idiots, will know the yeild per acre. That is the key you need to know when trading corn, soybeans, ect ect. Its people who think like you do that are the true idiots in the market. I am not in the business of growing corn, how ever I own alot of land farm land in that area, I can promise you those farmers are buring your ass in the commodities markets, they have information you will never have.
Did you really just toss out yield per acre as some inside baseball reference? Like yield data isn't what EVERYONE looks at?
People who spend a few hours measuring plants at 5 farms in Iowa won't have a statistically significant number to trade off of. And don't act like having the information on ONE farm is going to give you an advantage on the harvest of an entire country. I'm sure there are farmers who are great traders. But do you think having the taking pre-harvest data from a few farms is giving you an advantage over Peter Brandt?
The top seed producers in the country talk about this every year. Some consulting company will say their "channel checks" are saying terrible yields for a product and people short the company and get long the commodity. If I recall correctly, you need over 7,000 plots to get a statistically significant yield number for a given seed product. You might find some corn farm that is yielding only 70 bu/ac, but it's because it is non-GMO and they had heavy rootworm pressure, while an equivalent farm (though there's rarely an equivalent farm) used GMO seed and hit 200.
It's YIELD, not yeild. For god's sake, the word has a red squiggly line under it when you type it in the reply box.
I don't get how you made my point and somehow still missed it. A lot of what you said was true, but
"Seed companies coming together to shoot their yeild shit is of no siginifiance to feed corn farmers unless they are growing seed corn for seed companies."
Are you crazy? You think farmers don't care about the seed yield? There's a little company called "Monsanto" you might want to look up.
I haven't failed to realize anything. I've been giving you the benefit of the doubt and thinking you are a 24 year old 1st year analyst with 9k acres of farm land for whom English is not a first language (FEILD??). Maybe that is all true, and you do seem to know a fair bit about ag. But you are being incredibly dense for someone who was asking for advise on what to trade.
when i was a pup i traded hang seng minis at night...they are a small contract (like 8 usd per tick if i remember right) and they move like crazy. for me it was great experience.
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