We have a winner

MARKETS

• Brexit: If you haven’t been paying attention to Brexit, now’s the time to tune back in. This week will be huge for determining how/when (if?) the U.K. leaves the EU, starting with a vote on Tuesday.

AVIATION

Another Boeing Plane Goes Down

An Ethiopian Airlines jetliner carrying 157 people crashed just after takeoff in Ethiopia yesterday, killing everyone on board. At least 35 nationalities were among those killed, the AP reports.

• What went wrong: It wasn’t clear what exactly caused the Boeing 737 Max 8 to go down in clear weather. But the pilot sent out a distress call and got clearance to return to the airport.

This is all too familiar

It’s the second deadly accident in five months for this model of Boeing’s best-selling jet. The Lion Air plane that plummeted into the Java Sea near Indonesia in October (killing 189 people) was also a Boeing 737 Max 8.

Both were brand-new planes. Both failed minutes after takeoff. Both left no survivors.

• “It’s highly suspicious...Here we have a brand-new aircraft that’s gone down twice in a year. That rings alarm bells in the aviation industry, because that just doesn't happen,” said CNN aviation analyst Mary Schiavo.

The mega-popular plane—a redesigned (and re-engined) version of the model that’s “formed the backbone of global fleets for five decades,” writes Bloomberg—started commercial service less than two years ago. Customers including Southwest, United, Ryanair, and more have made the model Boeing’s fastest-selling plane in history.

Zoom out: While the Lion Air crash was the first fatal one for this model, questions are still swirling around that disaster. Investigations into plane crashes typically take months, but authorities will surely be looking for any link between the two tragedies.

As for Ethiopian Airlines…

The deadly crash is a major setback for the rapidly expanding carrier. Ethiopian Airlines has recently outpaced its rivals in Africa to build the capital city of Addis Ababa into a major aviation hub—and even steal some business from Dubai-based Emirates.

And on a continent with a pretty dismal aviation safety record, Ethiopian Airlines has enjoyed a strong reputation. It’s a codeshare partner with United, a member of the Star Alliance, and Africa's only consistently profitable carrier.

EVENTS

Overheard at SXSW

We’re not quite sure what media/tech/politics/culture bonanza South by Southwest really is, but we can tell you what it does: get powerful people to say juicy things.
1) Here’s EU antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager on 2020 hopeful Elizabeth Warren’s plan to break up the largest tech firms:

• “It would, for us, be an issue of the very, very, very last resort. I'd say we would try almost everything else before we'd ever get to consider that
• You should pay attention to Vestager’s thoughts—as Europe’s top antitrust cop she’s earned a reputation for being ultra-tough on Big Tech.

2) CNN President Jeff Zucker on AT&T’s recently completed $85 billion acquisition of Time Warner:

• “Do I think there was political motivation behind trying to block the deal? I do,” he said, alleging those motivations originated with President Trump.
• The two companies were recently victorious over a hostile DOJ in getting their vertical merger past the finish line.

BUDGET

Budget? I Hardly Even Know What’s in It

You’re not the only one who’s worked hard on a project only to have it ignored. The White House will release its 2020 budget proposal today, and Congress (which controls federal spending) will take one look, shrug, and get back to its Fantasy Baseball mock drafts.

So why should we pay attention? Because D.C. is all about compromise, and knowing where each negotiating party stands at the outset is critical to understanding the nature of the debate.

What we expect to find in the budget:

• Increased defense spending: $750 billion total (up from $716 billion last year), per Axios. Plus, $8.6 billion for a border wall.
• Cuts in domestic programs: The WaPo reports the budget will seek to impose stricter work requirements for Americans across welfare programs.
• No balance for at least a decade, per CNBC, even while the White House is expected to forecast ambitious 3% annual economic growth.

Looking ahead…we don’t have to worry about another edition of the “Shutdown Chronicles” until potentially Oct. 1, the deadline for funding legislation to be passed.

‘FINE ART

‘Earth’ Without Art Is Just ‘Eh’

Something tells us the folks at Sotheby’s are rocking those t-shirts today, as the world-renowned fine art broker celebrates the 275th anniversary of its first sale.

Sotheby’s is ringing in the occasion following mixed 2018 results. The auction house reported $6.4 billion in art sales worldwide last year, up 16% annually.

Here’s where things become mixed: Sotheby’s reported $108.6 million in earnings, down from $118.8 million in 2017. It’s been tough going—Artnet found the broader art auction market was flat last year, with about $14.7 billion in overall sales.

So what gives? While there have been plenty of new members to the two-comma club in recent years, the uber-wealthy just aren’t buying as much fine art as they used to.

• Sure, combined auction and dealer sales of $67.4 billion last year were the second-highest in the last decade, per UBS and Art Basel, but…
• Since 2011, global art sales have increased about 4.3%. The population of dollar millionaires? It’s jumped roughly 42% in the same time.

+ Pop quiz: What was Sotheby's first sale in 1744?

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Disney’s $71 billion acquisition of most of Fox is expected to close this week. Curious to see whether Homer Simpson and Olaf the snowman make for compatible roommates.

Monday: Retail sales; earnings (ADT, Stitch Fix); National Napping Day

Tuesday: Consumer price index; major Brexit vote; earnings (Dick’s)

Wednesday: Durable goods; construction spending

Thursday: Tesla’s Model Y announcement; Bank of Japan meeting begins; new home sales; Pi Day; earnings (Broadcom, Oracle, Adobe, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, DocuSign)

Friday: Closing remarks of China’s National People’s Congress; JOLTS; Beware the Ides of March

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, two titans of German lending, are reportedly in the wee stages of exploring a merger, per Reuters.
• Top oil execs are in Houston for CERAWeek. There’s a changing of the guard now that the U.S. has become the largest crude producer in the world.
• Nvidia is reportedly close to buying Mellanox, an Israeli chipmaker. Mellanox has a market value of about $5.9 billion.
• 23andMe, the DNA testing company, revealed a new genetic test that assesses your likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes. Some experts question its utility.
• Captain Marvel saved us after all. The film took in an estimated $455 million worldwide over the long weekend, trouncing expectations

BREAKROOM

Greater Than, Less Than, or Equal to

• The combined wealth of 98 Russian billionaires // The entire Russian population’s savings
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s 2017 pay package // Bryce Harper’s 2019 pay from the Philadelphia Phillies
• The number of days remaining until the Brexit deadline // 18
• U.S. GDP // U.S. national debt

Breakroom Answers

Pop Quiz
Per Sotheby's, "'Several Hundred scarce and valuable Books in all branches of Polite Literature' from the library of Sir John Stanley fetched a grand total of £826."