What are you guys investing in right now...
I'm up 90% YTD from tech no-brain yolo but I pulled a large portion of my money out recently. Just curious what you guys are doing right now.
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Sounds like you made the right call and I think it was a good idea to take some money off the table. I am looking at Tesla every day and can't believe the insanity that's unfolding before my eyes. But we are probably not done with "stonks go up" yet..
I am currently split 50/50 cash (for when the real drop comes) and short-term P2P lending across a couple of platforms. Getting a good ~16% yield on the P2P loans now, down from 20-25% a few months ago, so I am okay with that - but it obviously doesn't compare to yolo stock picks.
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Mainly using Mintos and Twino. I am based in Europe and thus want EUR denominated loans to avoid the FX impact. Not a fan of having my yield ruined because the Russian ruble or Kazakh tenge moved against me. I have been investing on both platforms for a couple of years, and it has been good so far with yields getting a bit more juicy this year. Considering that I stick to very short term loans, I am very happy with the 10-16% yield.
The way you generally invest on these platforms is that you either: 1) manually select loans based on criteria such as type of loan, country of borrower, tenor (time to maturity), interest rate, currency etc., or 2) go with an "auto-invest" strategy that continuously strives to keep your money invested based on your pre-defined criteria. The loans are typically relatively small (no tranches) and you diversify across a large number of loans. However, this diversification isn't really that important since almost all loans come with "buyback guarantees" from the originators. This means that if the individual borrower can't repay the loan within 60 days of the due date, then the originators will buy it back from you (at principal + accrued interest to make you whole) and then deal with the collection themselves. Hence, your real exposure is to the originators and you therefore want some diversification across them (or make concentrated bets because you feel some are safer than others - your call).
Mintos and Twino each have their pros/cons, but they overall compare quite well with each other despite their differences. I have tried to briefly outline them below, but there is obviously more to cover.
Mintos: P2P marketplace that connects investors with loan originators that list their loans on the platform, i.e. you invest in loans from the originators and not Mintos itself. Typically has better yield and more loans available, but comes with a bit more risk as evidenced by some originators going belly up in recent years. Originators are rated on Mintos, but it's not worth much and you should do your own due diligence (e.g. checking https://explorep2p.com/mintos-lender-ratings/ ). Has better portfolio transparency and secondary market.
Twino: P2P platform and loan originator, i.e. you invest directly in loans sourced by Twino. Simple and solid platform with no default losses given it is the only originator. Is less sophisticated than Mintos and caters more to investors that just want to put in money and auto-invest.
When do you think the "real crash" is coming? Worse than what we experienced in March?
I personally don't think we will see it in the next couple of months, but once we approach the end of 2020 / start of 2021 the risks might materialize more (e.g. US election, trade war(s), geopolitical conflicts, delayed impact of COVID-19, Brexit etc.). It might take longer for us to get there though. The main issue is that central banks can keep markets smooth for a long time by just throwing cheap money at it, which they (unfortunately) seem quite determined to continue doing. I feel that a real correction will take a major trigger in order to change status quo and shift the general risk sentiment from where we are now. It has to be significant enough that it won't / can't just get drowned in cheap money from central banks. Valuations are ridiculously rich across almost all asset classes, and I think we need to go further down compared to what we saw earlier this year, although it was a good start.
This really is the million dollar question though and my guess is obviously as good as anybody's guess. If I had more conviction about the timing and trigger I would short everything and watch the world burn. Contemplating it on a regular basis, but it's quite scary when markets seem like they can only go up. So for now I am happy to just sit on the sideline with cash and P2P loans.
I am keen to hear other views on timing/magnitude of a crash as well as thoughts on asset allocation.
Made 750k so far speculating / YOLOing in SPAC warrants, haven’t sold this position yet. Pretty sure I’ll hit 1mm by mid September.
Next plays will be the slew of big tech IPOs this fall (Snowflake / Palantir / Airbnb / Unity / Robinhood / Doordash).
Can’t wait to see how I come out on the other side.
Tossed you an SB bro........whoever MS'd you is jealous AF
What's your YoY % return?
Think around 300%
Following this as I just graduated and am sitting on 30k all cash. Just started 401k with BB I am working at and not gonna touch the allocattions (97% stocks mainly in U.S ans global large, mid, and small cap).
Am thinking of waiting until the election results to either ride the wave up with Trump or buy the dip with Biden. I know a correction is coming as fundamentals are way off and bc of J-Powell we are essentially living in a socialised stock market.
Molestias et natus magni quo illo. Magni est aperiam natus quasi non et dicta.
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