So, the hot thing to talk about is driverless cars. I'm thinking about the opposite end of the spectrum. I drive a manual by choice, but you can't get a 2020 Corvette as a manual, or half of the 911 variants. (I'm not talking about a flappy-paddle) Nevermind cheap Fords or Toyotas which are basically all slushboxes. What do you think will be the last car offered in the US with a conventional three-pedal manual tranny?
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Subaru.
Subaru what? I've got my opinion, but I don't want to taint this discussion. (It isn't a Subaru)
Subaru is going all CVT. Considering how long in the tooth their actual performance platforms are, I have a feeling they're not exactly chomping at the bit to create new manual transmissions.
I think the top model Subaru WRX will continue with a manual for a while. Probably as the car (heavily modified) is used in rally racing.
Honda Civic Si / Type R
I'm betting it will be Porsche. They tried to get away from the manual with the last GT3 and a lot of customers hated it. The new one is back with the option, so they clearly still have a market for it.
For a more mainstream company, I think the entry level cars (Chevy Spark, Fiat 500, Toyota Corolla, etc.) will always come in stick in some variant since they are so cheap to produce.
I agree on Porsche but disagree base model cars will keep the stick. Sooner or later it'll just be cheaper to spread the costs of the auto vs. developing two separate transmissions. Pretty sure the only reason modern low-rent cars can be optioned with a stick is because they're running two decade old 5 speed transmissions. Once those production lines shutter they'll go all CVT/Auto.
I currently have a manual f80 m3. AFAIK BMW was slated to axe the manual on the upcoming G80 M3, fortunately they've decided to keep it, looks like I've lucked out for now
I'm assuming Mazda will try and keep the manual alive in the Miata for as long as possible -- though they operate in a niche market with a low-demand product. I would probably bet Porsche being the one automaker to have a manual transmission option as long as possible since they can pull from the VAG parts bin. I think the premise of the question is wrong though, I have a feeling we'll always have a stick option in some form or another. As the world becomes increasing digital, experiences will begin to command a premium. $10 says manuals will return to supercars sometime in the future.
The likes of Porsche will ALWAYS have at least one variant with a manual transmission. They are an endangered species and will reduce in population significantly, but will somehow always be hanging on by a thread.
It's idiotic to think otherwise. Sure, the industry will downsize and eventually be autonomous but enthusiasts will always exist. There will always be someone making a car for us petrolheads.
Actually it seems manuals at BMW are on the way out. Dropped from the 3-Series and I'm pretty sure it was almost dropped from the M3/4. Very unfortunate the way BMW has been going lately, MB and Audi seem like better bets these days.
I'm not so sure on supercars. They've always been all about the numbers, and objectively a dual clutch transmission is faster. Porsche I see as a contender, although I disagree on the reasoning. I was going to ask what manuals VAG has that would be compatible with Porsche level HP other than the R8, but then I checked and the R8 is only available with a dual-clutch gearbox. They've also been fazing out real manuals on the high end Porsches.
As an admittedly biased source I'm going to agree with the Miata. (I own one) Miatas have never been about speed--My brother in law's bike has more HP. They've been about having a fun toy, and that basically requires having a manual. A fun fact is that ticking the automatic/flappy-paddle box on the build sheet costs you more money up-front and actually REDUCES resale value. I'm going to say that it will always be offered with a manual.
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