Yes of course though taxes should be the least of anyone’s worries. You need to factor in a strategy that will keep you in business. Making money without the risk of ruin. Many small losses can be just as dangerous as a large loss

 

I'm not saying it's all bullsh*t. Although the majority of educators aren't backing up their theories. And even many articles written by highly educated people are just nothing more than "theories".

Of course there's money to be made. The entire country was built based on the markets and heavily relies on the markets.

I'd like to dive in deeper and find what makes trading less of a science and more of a numbers game that can be backed up. Like you mention, plenty of traders were trading one lot and eventually made a killing. How much risk is too much risk? What's a normal distribution of losses? How could you expect that distribution, especially if you only base it on past performance not accounting for any unknown changes in the future.

I'm not looking for a holy grail. Initially I believed the biggest problem most face is being undercapitalized and risking too much, losing more than they make. But I do question myself, is there a part in there that actually has much to do with the strategy itself, which would require much more than a simple set of rules based on risk/reward and charting patterns.

 
Most Helpful
  1. Start with asset allocation. I recommend a LDI strategy using either CPPI or dynamic asset allocation. Determine your switching model for growth or defensive cycles (scorecards work really well- global pmi, global equity benchmarks, policy outlooks, etc.).
  2. Within your asset allocation (say you switch between 80% growth assets and 20% defensive assets to 20% growth assets and 80% defensives and vice versa) pick which assets you want to manage yourself and which you want to hire a manager for (e.g. maybe emerging market bonds can be offloaded to a mutual fund or ETF).
  3. Within assets you want to hold, you want to track regional performance, sector performance, and factor performance. You can then drill down to top performing regions/sectors/factors and bottom regions/sectors/factors for your long or short ideas.
  4. Read industry research to determine which industries are positioned best-- within those industries compare companies to find your factor preference, and then conduct due diligence to determine if there's a real opportunity there (expected return should be double digit -- 10-25% at min).
  5. Use quantitative and technical data to help determine timing -- there's something called "short-term reversal factor", read about it and manage your trading in such a way that you avoid it (setting RSI to 20 days and buying slower when it is high and faster when it is low is a good way to start). Use price alerts to exit on the downside, but your main risk management tool should be a reduction in overall portfolio beta or covariance. ON the upside, do not exit a trade unless your view of the company has changed. I don't care how high it has rallied-- keep it unless the earnings outlook has changed. And when the earnings outlook changes, DUMP IT.
  6. If you go long/short, go long/short across top and bottom performing sectors/industries/factors/stocks; going long/short reduces your equity beta which will enable you to take on more leverage. Limit your leverage to 1.5x to 3x per trade, with max of 2x of your account.
  7. You can enhance your portfolio by using calls and puts as both insurance and upside capture. E.g. if your stock selection portfolio has a beta of 0 (market neutral), spend 1-3% of your portfolio on long-dated S&P calls. You can do the same with puts if you are taking on direct beta (long only).
  8. Have fun.
 

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