When are we going to be in bars/partying again?

NY has some guidelines for reopening now, and restaurants are phase 3. Do you think that means bars/clubs are too? Phase 4 was the most vague and included 'entertainment' so wouldn't be surprised if bars/clubs were shoved into there. Anyone have predictions on when we will be able to go out and get plastered again? I seriously need to go blow off some steam.

 

social distancing will be most difficult in packed bars. also not entirely cool to see how a girl looks wearing a face mask. Not sure how this industry will recover quickly.

also, drunk people don't care about distancing. only 1 infected guest could infect the entire club.

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I think bars are going to open on limited capacities at best, could see them reopening as "restaurants," where you wait for a table to open up, and then have someone bring drinks while you're there. I think it's going to be frowned upon to mingle with anyone not at your table (your friends).

In my mind, it will be a while before bars reopen to what they were

 

In NYC, not in 2020 unless we have a cure. I am not saying this is the right thing to do, but this is the assumption I am making after following Cuomo's briefings daily and reading up on this as much as I can. While he previously saying, "We must flatten the curve and not overrun our hospital system" it has turned into "every life is priceless. No deaths at the expense of the economy". Will other states opening and political pressure change his tune? Perhaps, but I'm not counting on it. Here is my thought of the timeline in NYC. Would love to hear what others think it will look like.

June 1 - Phase I. Construction and manufacturing open.

June 15 - Hair salons, coffee shops, retail at curbside pick up, etc

July 1 - Restaurants (reservation only) maxed out at 2 per table.

August 1 - Restaurants maxed out at ~4 per table. No bars/clubs or anything that will result in a lack of social distancing.

September 1 - Our offices start letting us come back at a limited capacity if we feel comfortable. Restaurants add more capacity.

From there? That's as good as I think it gets until the virus is gone. If we can ramp up contact tracers, the virus gets weaker, or we get a cure, then we'll be in a much better spot, but this is just how I see this playing out.

 

Landlords will eat it. Nobody’s going to run the risk of going empty for a long time when they can cut rent for a few months. Even 6 months at 50% rent (extreme cut) means only 3 months lost. Compare that to finding someone new in this market. Easy choice

 

A lot of the ladies have lost their jobs (art galleries, fashion, yoga instructors, acting or whatever the fuck) and are moving back to Florida or Ohio or wherever the hell they deemed too small for their amazing selves. Interested in seeing who will still be around in a few months’ time

 

This is actually a really interesting question. Nightlife is a huge part of culture throughout the world, it plays a big role for many local economies, and the industry's consumers (being a younger age) have an extremely low risk of death/disability from the virus. One of my colleagues in Miami told me some commercial landlords are already thinking of ways to repurpose their club space, preparing for the worst. I'm not quite sure what to make of any of this, but I consider it will have the same fate as industries in the "concerts/large gatherings" bucket before i group it in the "restaurants" category.

I read an article in March about the reopening of 44 KW, a house/techno club in Shanghai shortly before their second lockdown. At the time, the club was packed, some people wearing masks, others not. It appeared demand was still there (which is clear from this thread as well).

 

The interest is absolutely there. In my experience, young people are more pissed about lock down than actually scared of the virus, especially if they don't live with their parents or other older people. Me, all my friends, and all my coworkers would be at a crowded bar in a heart beat if they opened tomorrow. Criticize me if you want, but my chances of dying if I get this are <.1 and="" i="" take="" those="" odds="" all="" day="" long.=""></.1>

 

Not anytime soon. I'd be surprised if they "acted" like bars before 12-18 months from now. Not until therapeutics and vaccine are ready for mass distribution. Infect the bar, get into the subway, shut the whole city down again. Cuomo won't let that happen. Nor should he.

Life is going to be quite different for the foreseeable future. Just get used to it.

I also imagine the IB and S&T workplace will also be quite different for a long time. One good thing that is coming out of this is the BBs are realizing face time requirements are just unnecessary and ridiculous. People can be quite efficient form home. I suspect 1/3 to 1/2 stay home permanently. Or at least a few days per week.

 

Regarding several comments of low mortality rates: Yes, but the whole point is that young infected people may infect others around them. This can be your landlord, your mail man, the guy who serves you at McDonald's or at Starbucks.

As posted above, certain groups of the society are able to kick off another wave and you are looking at another shutdown (potentially).

Look at countries were people are either in a densely packed area (UK) or where multiple generations live together under one roof (Italy/Spain) - the death rates are very high.

National Suicide Prevention Lifeline  1-800-273-8255
 

exactly - it’s pretty messed up to go rage just because you know you’ll be fine if you get the virus. Odds are that you’ll still be a carrier to older people who might seriously be at risk. that’s for sure what happened when so many college kids were partying right before schools closed down and then went home and gave it to family members.

 

Rule of thumb: It is fine if any young person has no problem getting the disease. But you would also have to accept the fact that you might end up killing your grandparents and parents. (unless you 100% self-isolate and don't get in touch with anyone after the infection which can be difficult as well)

It is easier for everyone if you don't get the infection at all until a vaccine is available. It is just one summer, if we all survive there are plenty more to come.

National Suicide Prevention Lifeline  1-800-273-8255
 

Then why are Italy and Spain reopening as we speak?

You seem not to realize that the implications of this shutdown go far beyond having to skip a summer of socializing. It's easy to advocate a long-term lockdown while sitting at your apartment, still getting paid, and updating your zoom spreadsheet or powerpoint for your next meeting. Guess what? Most of America does not have such a luxury. The question is, should we throw away most people's futures, livelihoods, progress, etc. to protect the few that are at risk of this virus? I'm not saying we should or shouldn't, but it's a question we will have to ask ourselves soon, because shutting down until a vaccine is widely available is completely unsustainable. Perhaps there is a middle ground, focused on protecting the at-risk while enabling the low risk population to resume life.

 
promoteseeker:
Then why are Italy and Spain reopening as we speak?

First of all, Italy and Spain took social distancing seriously. America has not.

Second, Italy and Spain had far more testing. America has not.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, Italy's "reopening" is bringing their country to the level of our shutdown. It is not throwing the doors open because they "don't want to miss a summer."

promoteseeker:
]The question is, should we throw away most people's futures, livelihoods, progress, etc. to protect the few that are at risk of this virus? I'm not saying we should or shouldn't, but it's a question we will have to ask ourselves soon, because shutting down until a vaccine is widely available is completely unsustainable. Perhaps there is a middle ground, focused on protecting the at-risk while enabling the low risk population to resume life.

No one serious is advocating shutting down until a vaccine is found. The economy will be safe to "open," in phases, when we have sufficient levels of diagnostic testing and contract tracing. No one is going to quarantine for 1.5 years, but society will certainly be changed for quite some time as a result of social distancing and crisis response.

"So far, the United States has only performed about 4 million coronavirus tests."

"Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the country is conducting approximately 1.5 million to 2 million Covid-19 tests per week."

"Bill Gates said Sunday that new testing machines and methods should soon be able to get the United States up to between 400,000 and 500,000 tests per day, though that's 'just barely enough for really doing the tracking.'"

Since the beginning, our biggest problem has been our lack of testing. Once that finally gets to a point where it can be rapid and widespread, and we finally have an effective contact tracing system, people can begin to safely go back to work, starting in phases.

Until then, people rushing to bars not only is ignorant, but it actively sets back the ability of the country to return to work.

 

This. I feel shitty knowing that I'm missing a significant part of my college life that I will never be able to get back. Doesn't mean however that I want to have that at the expense of potentially infecting those who are more vulnerable than me. Also, if the virus intensifies again due to lack of social distancing, all hell will break loose in terms of the economy.

Array
 

Bro I feel so sad for you. In college, you literally had hot girls who would be throwing themselves at you...now your stuck infront of a laptop at home , and even if/when you return to campus, some THOT won’t let you kiss her during a party/hook up in fears of getting the virus

 

Cases and deaths continue to drop but hey, let’s continue to keep things on lockdown until 2021 with fear of a second wave. Let’s continue to complain about people on a beach but touching everything in sight at a local Walmart or Costco is OK but Ms. Smith needs her essential tub of ice cream.

Oh, let’s also compare a 2nd wave to the 1918 Spanish Flu because it makes sense to compare a world event to one over 100 fucking years ago with less communication, science, and technology.

Let me smell that Monkey Shit

 

no MS from me, you just have a different point of view. I partly agree to reopening businesses and the world if it is done in a safe way.

And trips to buy ice cream clearly are not safe or essential.

National Suicide Prevention Lifeline  1-800-273-8255
 

This is a joke. Open up everything, fuck the weak. We cannot pause the world for 18 months over something that is starting to seem much less detrimental than expected/planned. This lockdown will go down as the biggest fuck up in history.

Last week, there was an antibody test that implied 21% of the public have been infected (most never had symptoms). This was in NYC, the kill box for this shit, which implies ~1.8m ppl have/had it in NYC. At the time, there were 12k deaths for a 0.6% fatality rate. This rate is also likely inflated given the COVID deaths are bullshit inflated (google it) and we should honestly also consider the victim crossover from those who would get very ill/pass from a standard flu, etc. (I believe 50k-70k pending the flu strain each year). The virus barely affects young people (who are not sick fat shits).

This is not the flu, but we cannot turn off the world for something ~2x as bad, and which really only affects 70-80+ yr olds and very sick people. Older and ppl with immunodeficiencies can stay inside but life needs to move on.... literally killing ourselves (review studies on unemployment and death.. and we may hit 30%, honestly hard to comprehend). It’s a joke LOL

 
Most Helpful

Never have I seen a better example of the typical WSO demographic than this thread. I get that it sucks to miss a summer (or two) of hitting the bars in your mid 20s. You know what sucks more? Being the reason your parents and grandparents are dead.

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."
 

The box wont see people again in 2020 and if they do it won't be like the box of old.

The answer to your question is 1) network 2) get involved 3) beef up your resume 4) repeat -happypantsmcgee WSO is not your personal search function.
 

Good lord

Incoming <abbr title=Chartered Financial Analyst><abbr title=Chartered Financial Analyst>cfa</abbr></abbr> level 1 charterholder:
Lately, the weather has been great and I've been seeing so many people outside that I think it makes sense to slowly open things back up.

Now we're making public health decisions based on how nice the weather is.

Incoming <abbr title=Chartered Financial Analyst><abbr title=Chartered Financial Analyst>cfa</abbr></abbr> level 1 charterholder:
However, I think hospitals and healthcare facilities should be built up to handle a large influx of patients in the event a second wave of the virus kicks in.

Which happens overnight, right?

 

Thing people are getting mistaken here is the whole point of social distancing. It was never about bringing cases to 0. It was simply to build the capacity of the hospitals and getting testing to required levels (this is up for debate however). Not sure how much more people can take of this lockdown, but I think eventually it will come to the point where things return to normal and at risk groups are forced to isolate. Very shitty scenario but this is the world we live in

 

As of last Thursday in Dallas, TX, bars and restaurants have reopened at a mandated 25% capacity. My SO and I went to grab a drink at our quiet hole-in-the-wall and it was bleak; the ambiance, energy and mood of the joint was completely gone. Our favorite bartender has been furloughed and replaced by a Panamanian chick who is banging the owner. A middle-aged man wearing an UnderArmor workout shirt and a pair of Levi 510's sat 6-feet away from us and barraged us with personal stories filled with unlikely high-profile name drops... but he was the only outside company we've had in 45 days so we reluctantly stayed engaged.

At the end of the night (and a $120 tab) my SO and I were walking home debating if it was worth it. Affirmatively, I said no. Paying $12/glass for Basil Haydens, kind-of/kind-of-not being in fear of people potentially coming within 6 feet of contact, subjected to a lame conversation while this lonely dude is clearly trying to figure out if he could pry my SO from me to save himself, and where the height of people watching being is if the food courier grabs the correct take-out order...

It's going to be a longggg ass time until things get back to normal. There are no utils in rushing back into the fray.

 

You know coming from a third world country that is going to shit, I thought that the people who where having home parties or drinking in the streets were doing so because of a lack of education.

Yet here I am in WSO seeing the same type of behaviour in an environment where ~98% have or are getting a university degree, and not only that but are pursuing careers where you have to be above the rest of the crowd.

 

We are spoiled and entitled here. That's Uh-muhrica for you. And the nightlife/food scene is pretty awesome. Lotta kids here - they know they won't die - they are eager to work and have fun. Let them vent. If they're home with mom and dad right now, you know they're getting an earful of "no, you can't see your girlfriend!" daily.

 

Well, I don't know if the couple hundred bucks a month (or even 1k) is worth losing good times in your life. I'm not a huge bar/club guy but when I have gone out on ocassion I do fondly recall those memories of getting wasted with buddies and getting a quesadilla at 3am

Have to say, although better finance skills are good for the individual, could be catastrophic for the economy in terms of economic acceleration. Ironically I hope most people don't come out with that for the collective good lol

 

I think people here are misunderstanding the point of the lock-down: it's designed to reduce the load on hospitals and slow the spread of the virus. The experts are all in agreement that getting this virus is likely unavoidable over the long term, so yes you will likely get it sometime in the future. And now that the virus is mutating, a vaccine is unlikely to slow the spread. We have to find a way back to normal before the economy completely collapses, because if that happens people won't care about the quarantine restrictions or social distancing.

 

It’s is frightening to think about if the virus got a lucky mutation (unlucky for humans certainly) that made it far deadlier. I’d be especially worried about South America in that regard.

Gun rights activist
 

Virus mutation does not necessarily mean vaccines are no longer effective–this happens with influenza, but the same type of mutation in coronaviruses is not usually observed. Researchers still expect that a vaccine will help slow the spread at some point, but I agree with your main point about slowing the spread.

In response to Skyywalker, it is actually detrimental to the virus to be more deadly. The goal of the virus is to inhabit a host, so if the host dies before they're able to pass the virus on to someone else, the virus will eventually die out. Many epidemiologists hypothesize that this is why viruses with severe symptoms and high death rates like Ebola and SARS (2002) did not become global pandemics. Ebola could wipe out an entire village without allowing time for anyone to spread it elsewhere, thus wiping itself out in the process. This is what makes COVID so dangerous–it is highly contagious, often has mild symptoms, and has a (relatively) low death rate. Sadly, this means more people die overall because exponentially more people end up being exposed.

 

Big bump on this. I don’t want to be sounding like a conspiracy theory here but the government realizes that tons of people will die from this regardless (assuming we don’t have a vaccine). The main point being is to rather drag those cases over a longer period of time, but in a range so that hospitals can sustain themselves. Just because you flatten curve doesn’t mean you magically get rid of the area under the curve

 

I'm in Hong Kong right now to get away from the virus and its the region with the lowest amount of cases, but the government still hasn't opened bars and gyms. Honestly if I was in London I wouldn't go even if they re-opened, there could easily be a second wave.

 

In Canada (near Toronto area) and Premier just starting to put things in motion to open up more stores/retail...expect bars won't follow for another 4-6mo at least

 

Sucks to be a guy in their mid 20s around this time. It will take probably a minimum of 2 years for things to get to normal.

Crap is butt.

Interested in health tech, consulting, and entrepreneurship.
 

Hi WSO,

Just wanted to follow up on the above. Any update on any banks requiring employees to go to work or allowing them to work?

Please let me know how I can be helpful.

Regards, Richard

Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.
 

Any update here? Let me know if you have any questions I can help answer to speed up the process.

Anybody going into work? I fear that if things start getting better really quickly, banks will accelerate their timeline such taht instaed of us coming in in September, we come in end of June.

Think they'll push it earlier than what they said to us?

Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.
 

My friends' bank said they are doing quarantine in waves so people will be allowed to come into the office starting early July. You can WFH until like Sept or Oct if youre uncomfy

Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.
 

alright peeps, I was out all weekend at the beach now that the entire southeast is open for dine-in (some states allowing bars, others not). a little recap

the beaches were fine. 6 feet apart not an issue whatsoever, but still plenty of people out there. rip currents were the bigger danger on the east coast, I think Arthur moved some sandbars around. saw some groups but nothing crazy, weren't in other peoples business, and they must not have been bad off because the cops I saw weren't paying them any attention. minimal masks on the beach (thankfully), I did see a lot of butts that don't belong in thongs and dad bods that I'm sure used to be gym bros, so quarantine 15 is real and unfortunate. get slim folks, no excuses.

bars and restaurants seem to be fine at the coast, mixed inland. had dinner with wifey Friday night before going to the coast and everything was a bit slower, guessing they had to lay off cooks and wait staff. exercising patience was key, because if I didn't know our server, I would've thought they weren't trying. heard from friends in other parts of the city that things normalized more saturday, lots of people out but no incidents, people being patient, staying 6' apart when able. at the coast, maybe because beach towns weren't hammered as much, maybe because everyone's just pumped to be at the beach, idk, only struggle was parking but that's normal for MDW.

the mood seemed different. maybe that's just me and trying to be positive all the time, maybe people were relieved to go out again, maybe it was decent weather, I don't know, but when we ate outside Saturday night alongside a bunch of other random groups, everyone seemed to be jovial and happy to be out. a sense of respect, not worry seemed to be in the air, letting people walk ahead of you so you're not too close in a doorway, giving people plenty of space when waiting in line/at the bar, and so on

wifey and I plan on hitting a couple more of our local spots this week and try to help our favorite servers/bartenders with their rent, also looking ahead to another big weekend on the coast, will let you know if anything changes.

also, if you're going to comment on how I'm irresponsible for going out, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I hope everyone had a nice MDW remembering those who gave the ultimate sacrifice

 

You think these improving conditions are better than you anticipated? I wonder whether all businesses will open up sooner now or if many will still wait for a vaccine to be developed?

Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.
 

it is better than I anticipated. it was definitely a quieter than normal MDW, on the business side, what I saw was some difficulty with balancing govt guidelines with the realities of square footage. it's not easy. the restaurant we went into on Friday because of the nature of the floorplan had well more than half of its tables closed off to meet social distancing requirements. another one leaned on good weather and plenty of outdoor space to do it. it's really going to be up to the business owner. maybe some can survive on half capacity or takeout only with just a skeleton crew.

I think waiting for a vaccine is a fucking joke. not saying this because I'm a Trump dick rider and cuz muh libs are so stoopid y'all, but because of the simple fact that not every disease is curable/preventable with a vaccine, even if one is available there's no guarantee it will be effective, and if it does get discovered, it will take years for the manufacturing, safety tests, efficacy tests, and distribution to occur properly, no matter how fast the FDA fast tracks it. we still don't have a SARS or MERS vaccine or a Hong Kong flu (1968 I think) vaccine, and it took until December 2019 for the first ebola vaccine to be approved by the FDA. this shit is not easy science, so even under the most optimistic assumptions (maybe 1-2 years), I think it's ridiculous to say you won't go anywhere for another 1-2 years, unless you are severely immunocompromised, in which case you're probably not a big restauranteur or barfly to begin with.

it's just not a tenable solution for an owner to say they won't open until theres a vaccine. it''s fine to say "we can't safely social distance for dine in, we'll be doing takeout only and open up the patio for the time being" or "because we are concerned for our employees safety, we won't be allowing dine in at this time. we will however, be expanding our catering, delivery, and take out options to meet your needs." some businesses that open up will still fail. others that stay closed will be fine. say you want to wait for the numbers to get better, say you want to wait for there to be more testing, say you want to wait until your government goes into whatever phase allows large gatherings, or say you'll become a hermit because you're afraid, I don't care. but to say you're waiting for a vaccine is just intellectually dishonest.

 

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Will update my computer soon and leave Incognito so I will disappear forever. How did I achieve Neanderthal by trolling? Some people are after me so need to close account for safety.
 

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