When are we going to be in bars/partying again?
NY has some guidelines for reopening now, and restaurants are phase 3. Do you think that means bars/clubs are too? Phase 4 was the most vague and included 'entertainment' so wouldn't be surprised if bars/clubs were shoved into there. Anyone have predictions on when we will be able to go out and get plastered again? I seriously need to go blow off some steam.
social distancing will be most difficult in packed bars. also not entirely cool to see how a girl looks wearing a face mask. Not sure how this industry will recover quickly.
also, drunk people don't care about distancing. only 1 infected guest could infect the entire club.
Totally agree. Also going to a trashy bar that is at limited capacity is just going to be weird and depressing, so I have a feeling it will be a long time until we can get back to that.
I have the antibodies to COVID19 (and AIDS) let's quarantine and chill ;)
Going out to bars is generally not the best idea, whether they're open or not.
At some point people have to live their lives bro. Imagine being single in this environment, dudes need pussy man.
You ever hear of that website that starts with a "p" and ends with a "b"? I know it too well at this point :(
And I’m sure I can find a number of articles that counter that ICU Doctors thoughts.
Did his patients have prexisiting heart conditions? So much unclear data and news out there it’s mind blowing.
dead on. not much data and the data we have isn’t holistic and even usable with all the moving parts. it’s quite hard to model human behavior
for you
I think bars are going to open on limited capacities at best, could see them reopening as "restaurants," where you wait for a table to open up, and then have someone bring drinks while you're there. I think it's going to be frowned upon to mingle with anyone not at your table (your friends).
In my mind, it will be a while before bars reopen to what they were
Might have something like in Sweden where only table service & seating are allowed for a while.
In NYC, not in 2020 unless we have a cure. I am not saying this is the right thing to do, but this is the assumption I am making after following Cuomo's briefings daily and reading up on this as much as I can. While he previously saying, "We must flatten the curve and not overrun our hospital system" it has turned into "every life is priceless. No deaths at the expense of the economy". Will other states opening and political pressure change his tune? Perhaps, but I'm not counting on it. Here is my thought of the timeline in NYC. Would love to hear what others think it will look like.
June 1 - Phase I. Construction and manufacturing open.
June 15 - Hair salons, coffee shops, retail at curbside pick up, etc
July 1 - Restaurants (reservation only) maxed out at 2 per table.
August 1 - Restaurants maxed out at ~4 per table. No bars/clubs or anything that will result in a lack of social distancing.
September 1 - Our offices start letting us come back at a limited capacity if we feel comfortable. Restaurants add more capacity.
From there? That's as good as I think it gets until the virus is gone. If we can ramp up contact tracers, the virus gets weaker, or we get a cure, then we'll be in a much better spot, but this is just how I see this playing out.
Understandable from the perspective of virus prevention, but as someone in their early 20s in NYC, that really sucks. Bars/clubs are such a huge part of city life and it sounds like even as other parts of life start to return, the social aspect is going to seriously lag behind.
Dying sounds like it sucks too. Same with long-term lung & kidney damage.
Absolutely. I’m 27 and don’t want to lose a summer in the city. As soon as restaurants are open, I will be out every night with friends or dates. (incoming monkey shit)
Lol restaurants open 2 months before offices?
I think it's semi realistic. It's been happening in other places.
It's probably not consistent based on the science, but I think policymakers recognize how screwed over hospitality workers are from this. And those people have like zero ability to work form home.
So getting them back to work is a bit prioritized over office workers who can WFH.
Maybe some outdoors venues will work? Street table seating? NYC is so tough. Everything is packed in tight. Rents are so expensive, they cannot waste space, I don't know how anyplace will be able to afford to run half full or less.
Landlords will eat it. Nobody’s going to run the risk of going empty for a long time when they can cut rent for a few months. Even 6 months at 50% rent (extreme cut) means only 3 months lost. Compare that to finding someone new in this market. Easy choice
jesus can you imagine how hot and bothered the ladies are gonna be when things open up again damnnnn they finna be RARING to go
A lot of the ladies have lost their jobs (art galleries, fashion, yoga instructors, acting or whatever the fuck) and are moving back to Florida or Ohio or wherever the hell they deemed too small for their amazing selves. Interested in seeing who will still be around in a few months’ time
dibs on all those 4 types of chicks
> (art galleries, fashion, yoga instructors, acting or whatever the fuck)
Is that... is that all you think women do?
Don't simp bro. The ladies aren't bothered. They all are on OnlyFans
sir i am the only fan
OnlyFans is making out like robber barons that’s for damn sure rn
This is actually a really interesting question. Nightlife is a huge part of culture throughout the world, it plays a big role for many local economies, and the industry's consumers (being a younger age) have an extremely low risk of death/disability from the virus. One of my colleagues in Miami told me some commercial landlords are already thinking of ways to repurpose their club space, preparing for the worst. I'm not quite sure what to make of any of this, but I consider it will have the same fate as industries in the "concerts/large gatherings" bucket before i group it in the "restaurants" category.
I read an article in March about the reopening of 44 KW, a house/techno club in Shanghai shortly before their second lockdown. At the time, the club was packed, some people wearing masks, others not. It appeared demand was still there (which is clear from this thread as well).
The interest is absolutely there. In my experience, young people are more pissed about lock down than actually scared of the virus, especially if they don't live with their parents or other older people. Me, all my friends, and all my coworkers would be at a crowded bar in a heart beat if they opened tomorrow. Criticize me if you want, but my chances of dying if I get this are <.1 and="" i="" take="" those="" odds="" all="" day="" long.=""></.1>
The only policy implication is what measures must be taken to prevent the spread to the at-risk population. I can see a strong push to limit large gatherings, including clubs, as a means of protecting the older cohort (for right or wrong).
Right but you spread it to other people... so no one cares about you specifically or what your opinion is. It's because you will endanger other people. So fuck off with that opinion.
Not anytime soon. I'd be surprised if they "acted" like bars before 12-18 months from now. Not until therapeutics and vaccine are ready for mass distribution. Infect the bar, get into the subway, shut the whole city down again. Cuomo won't let that happen. Nor should he.
Life is going to be quite different for the foreseeable future. Just get used to it.
I also imagine the IB and S&T workplace will also be quite different for a long time. One good thing that is coming out of this is the BBs are realizing face time requirements are just unnecessary and ridiculous. People can be quite efficient form home. I suspect 1/3 to 1/2 stay home permanently. Or at least a few days per week.
I think you're quite right on all points.
Regarding several comments of low mortality rates: Yes, but the whole point is that young infected people may infect others around them. This can be your landlord, your mail man, the guy who serves you at McDonald's or at Starbucks.
As posted above, certain groups of the society are able to kick off another wave and you are looking at another shutdown (potentially).
Look at countries were people are either in a densely packed area (UK) or where multiple generations live together under one roof (Italy/Spain) - the death rates are very high.
exactly - it’s pretty messed up to go rage just because you know you’ll be fine if you get the virus. Odds are that you’ll still be a carrier to older people who might seriously be at risk. that’s for sure what happened when so many college kids were partying right before schools closed down and then went home and gave it to family members.
Rule of thumb: It is fine if any young person has no problem getting the disease. But you would also have to accept the fact that you might end up killing your grandparents and parents. (unless you 100% self-isolate and don't get in touch with anyone after the infection which can be difficult as well)
It is easier for everyone if you don't get the infection at all until a vaccine is available. It is just one summer, if we all survive there are plenty more to come.
Then why are Italy and Spain reopening as we speak?
You seem not to realize that the implications of this shutdown go far beyond having to skip a summer of socializing. It's easy to advocate a long-term lockdown while sitting at your apartment, still getting paid, and updating your zoom spreadsheet or powerpoint for your next meeting. Guess what? Most of America does not have such a luxury. The question is, should we throw away most people's futures, livelihoods, progress, etc. to protect the few that are at risk of this virus? I'm not saying we should or shouldn't, but it's a question we will have to ask ourselves soon, because shutting down until a vaccine is widely available is completely unsustainable. Perhaps there is a middle ground, focused on protecting the at-risk while enabling the low risk population to resume life.
First of all, Italy and Spain took social distancing seriously. America has not.
Second, Italy and Spain had far more testing. America has not.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, Italy's "reopening" is bringing their country to the level of our shutdown. It is not throwing the doors open because they "don't want to miss a summer."
No one serious is advocating shutting down until a vaccine is found. The economy will be safe to "open," in phases, when we have sufficient levels of diagnostic testing and contract tracing. No one is going to quarantine for 1.5 years, but society will certainly be changed for quite some time as a result of social distancing and crisis response.
"So far, the United States has only performed about 4 million coronavirus tests."
"Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the country is conducting approximately 1.5 million to 2 million Covid-19 tests per week."
"Bill Gates said Sunday that new testing machines and methods should soon be able to get the United States up to between 400,000 and 500,000 tests per day, though that's 'just barely enough for really doing the tracking.'"
Since the beginning, our biggest problem has been our lack of testing. Once that finally gets to a point where it can be rapid and widespread, and we finally have an effective contact tracing system, people can begin to safely go back to work, starting in phases.
Until then, people rushing to bars not only is ignorant, but it actively sets back the ability of the country to return to work.
This. I feel shitty knowing that I'm missing a significant part of my college life that I will never be able to get back. Doesn't mean however that I want to have that at the expense of potentially infecting those who are more vulnerable than me. Also, if the virus intensifies again due to lack of social distancing, all hell will break loose in terms of the economy.
Take a gap year -
Bro I feel so sad for you. In college, you literally had hot girls who would be throwing themselves at you...now your stuck infront of a laptop at home , and even if/when you return to campus, some THOT won’t let you kiss her during a party/hook up in fears of getting the virus
Cases and deaths continue to drop but hey, let’s continue to keep things on lockdown until 2021 with fear of a second wave. Let’s continue to complain about people on a beach but touching everything in sight at a local Walmart or Costco is OK but Ms. Smith needs her essential tub of ice cream.
Oh, let’s also compare a 2nd wave to the 1918 Spanish Flu because it makes sense to compare a world event to one over 100 fucking years ago with less communication, science, and technology.
Let me smell that Monkey Shit
no MS from me, you just have a different point of view. I partly agree to reopening businesses and the world if it is done in a safe way.
And trips to buy ice cream clearly are not safe or essential.
And why, pray tell, do you think they are dropping?
In NYC, yes. In America, far from it.
The White House just doubled, and then tripled, their projected deaths
Because all of the projections that have been modeled have been entirely accurate...
This is a joke. Open up everything, fuck the weak. We cannot pause the world for 18 months over something that is starting to seem much less detrimental than expected/planned. This lockdown will go down as the biggest fuck up in history.
Last week, there was an antibody test that implied 21% of the public have been infected (most never had symptoms). This was in NYC, the kill box for this shit, which implies ~1.8m ppl have/had it in NYC. At the time, there were 12k deaths for a 0.6% fatality rate. This rate is also likely inflated given the COVID deaths are bullshit inflated (google it) and we should honestly also consider the victim crossover from those who would get very ill/pass from a standard flu, etc. (I believe 50k-70k pending the flu strain each year). The virus barely affects young people (who are not sick fat shits).
This is not the flu, but we cannot turn off the world for something ~2x as bad, and which really only affects 70-80+ yr olds and very sick people. Older and ppl with immunodeficiencies can stay inside but life needs to move on.... literally killing ourselves (review studies on unemployment and death.. and we may hit 30%, honestly hard to comprehend). It’s a joke LOL
You are incredibly lucky it isn’t the mentally weak who are most at risk
Are your bros proud of your badassness? LOL ROTFL LMAO (idk any more but feel free to add up)
I'm not a late night bar guy anymore but I know several bars I will be among the first in line to get back into
are they gay bars?
I don’t judge
Never have I seen a better example of the typical WSO demographic than this thread. I get that it sucks to miss a summer (or two) of hitting the bars in your mid 20s. You know what sucks more? Being the reason your parents and grandparents are dead.
Really hammers home how I'm just too old for WSO anymore. Unfortunate, but all good things...
Naw, there are plenty of cranky old folks here to complain about the young'uns, I see at least 4 (((laughing))) Hell, who doesn't love a good NYC night out someplace packed and fun? Hell yeah, brofessor. All in due time.
yeah man, to each his own. if I lived near immunocompromised people, I might feel different, but once this shit opens up more I'll be back
ok boomer
What do you think of Michael Burry's idea i.e. the sick and elderly shelter in place and we institute additional hygienic countermeasures?
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-wit…
The box wont see people again in 2020 and if they do it won't be like the box of old.
Yuge sigh
In time, things will get back, and maybe they'll be even better.
eeeeeeeee errrrrrrrrrrrr eeeeeeeeeeee errrrrrrr Bustin' all the bales out the box I just hit a lick with the box Had to put the stick in a box, mmmmmmmmm
Imagine being a total chad in college right now that goes from slaying girls every Thursday to being stuck at their parents home... Yes it hurts.
Your older brother home for the semester or some shit?
Honestly that's a pretty hilarious image, can't say I feel too sorry lol
Looks like COVID just accelerated the path to Chad's parents' basement
the total chads with Oedipus complexs are pretty happy though
Lately, the weather has been great and I've been seeing so many people outside that I think it makes sense to slowly open things back up. However, I think hospitals and healthcare facilities should be built up to handle a large influx of patients in the event a second wave of the virus kicks in.
Good lord
Now we're making public health decisions based on how nice the weather is.
Which happens overnight, right?
Incidentally working on relatively advanced ML modelling for demand during and post crisis, and both temperature and weather are included as key independent variables...
Cmon. Peoples just talkin. You're aging yourself with these super-crabby negatory comments. Don't go all Larry David on us. ((totally cracking up))
Point 1) The point is no one is following the quarantine when it's nice out. You might as well slowly ease the quarantine if people aren't following it.
Point 2) Can you show me where I wrote this should happen overnight?
Thing people are getting mistaken here is the whole point of social distancing. It was never about bringing cases to 0. It was simply to build the capacity of the hospitals and getting testing to required levels (this is up for debate however). Not sure how much more people can take of this lockdown, but I think eventually it will come to the point where things return to normal and at risk groups are forced to isolate. Very shitty scenario but this is the world we live in
.
Day 45: a month later, people still think quarantine is about themselves and their own risk of dying.
It's a very difficult decision, but jeopardizing your personal health is a sacrifice I'm willing to make. It will be my cross to bear, but fear not, I will remain resolute.
As of last Thursday in Dallas, TX, bars and restaurants have reopened at a mandated 25% capacity. My SO and I went to grab a drink at our quiet hole-in-the-wall and it was bleak; the ambiance, energy and mood of the joint was completely gone. Our favorite bartender has been furloughed and replaced by a Panamanian chick who is banging the owner. A middle-aged man wearing an UnderArmor workout shirt and a pair of Levi 510's sat 6-feet away from us and barraged us with personal stories filled with unlikely high-profile name drops... but he was the only outside company we've had in 45 days so we reluctantly stayed engaged.
At the end of the night (and a $120 tab) my SO and I were walking home debating if it was worth it. Affirmatively, I said no. Paying $12/glass for Basil Haydens, kind-of/kind-of-not being in fear of people potentially coming within 6 feet of contact, subjected to a lame conversation while this lonely dude is clearly trying to figure out if he could pry my SO from me to save himself, and where the height of people watching being is if the food courier grabs the correct take-out order...
It's going to be a longggg ass time until things get back to normal. There are no utils in rushing back into the fray.
You know coming from a third world country that is going to shit, I thought that the people who where having home parties or drinking in the streets were doing so because of a lack of education.
Yet here I am in WSO seeing the same type of behaviour in an environment where ~98% have or are getting a university degree, and not only that but are pursuing careers where you have to be above the rest of the crowd.
One of my best friends has lived in South Korea for the past 5 years. He is mortified at American behavior and American government incompetence.
We are spoiled and entitled here. That's Uh-muhrica for you. And the nightlife/food scene is pretty awesome. Lotta kids here - they know they won't die - they are eager to work and have fun. Let them vent. If they're home with mom and dad right now, you know they're getting an earful of "no, you can't see your girlfriend!" daily.
If you go back to the bars, you are a grimy fuck.
From a glass half-full perspective think about how much money you saved in 2020 by not going out and wasting money.
Hopefully we emerge from this with some better personal finance budgeting habits.
Bonuses gonna suck this year tho.
Exactly still massive net loss...
Well, I don't know if the couple hundred bucks a month (or even 1k) is worth losing good times in your life. I'm not a huge bar/club guy but when I have gone out on ocassion I do fondly recall those memories of getting wasted with buddies and getting a quesadilla at 3am
Have to say, although better finance skills are good for the individual, could be catastrophic for the economy in terms of economic acceleration. Ironically I hope most people don't come out with that for the collective good lol
I think people here are misunderstanding the point of the lock-down: it's designed to reduce the load on hospitals and slow the spread of the virus. The experts are all in agreement that getting this virus is likely unavoidable over the long term, so yes you will likely get it sometime in the future. And now that the virus is mutating, a vaccine is unlikely to slow the spread. We have to find a way back to normal before the economy completely collapses, because if that happens people won't care about the quarantine restrictions or social distancing.
It’s is frightening to think about if the virus got a lucky mutation (unlucky for humans certainly) that made it far deadlier. I’d be especially worried about South America in that regard.
Virus mutation does not necessarily mean vaccines are no longer effective–this happens with influenza, but the same type of mutation in coronaviruses is not usually observed. Researchers still expect that a vaccine will help slow the spread at some point, but I agree with your main point about slowing the spread.
In response to Skyywalker, it is actually detrimental to the virus to be more deadly. The goal of the virus is to inhabit a host, so if the host dies before they're able to pass the virus on to someone else, the virus will eventually die out. Many epidemiologists hypothesize that this is why viruses with severe symptoms and high death rates like Ebola and SARS (2002) did not become global pandemics. Ebola could wipe out an entire village without allowing time for anyone to spread it elsewhere, thus wiping itself out in the process. This is what makes COVID so dangerous–it is highly contagious, often has mild symptoms, and has a (relatively) low death rate. Sadly, this means more people die overall because exponentially more people end up being exposed.
Big bump on this. I don’t want to be sounding like a conspiracy theory here but the government realizes that tons of people will die from this regardless (assuming we don’t have a vaccine). The main point being is to rather drag those cases over a longer period of time, but in a range so that hospitals can sustain themselves. Just because you flatten curve doesn’t mean you magically get rid of the area under the curve
Ratchet fcucks come to the Jersey Shore this summer.
Tips on where to stay while I’m there?
Wow. Either I'm getting old or you fuckers have lost your mind and left it in Murray Hill.
Maybe they should have a COVID-positive bar, so that all those who are sick already can go party together.
Can we have covfefe on the menu?
When there is a vaccine
Pet Shop is open, Tues-Sunday in Jersey City.
I like it how other developed countries have better precautions over this pandemic, ITT are people just thinking short-term and thinking 'fuck the rest i'm young and i'm safe'
I'm in Hong Kong right now to get away from the virus and its the region with the lowest amount of cases, but the government still hasn't opened bars and gyms. Honestly if I was in London I wouldn't go even if they re-opened, there could easily be a second wave.
In Canada (near Toronto area) and Premier just starting to put things in motion to open up more stores/retail...expect bars won't follow for another 4-6mo at least
Based on what, exactly?
I want to know about what the timeline is for those bankers in cities that are already opening up like Houston, TX or Atlanta, GA. Have you all already been told to come back to the office?
We all need to do something about it
That whole Korea situation is not going to help the cause on this one... I would bet no bars (or at least no crowded bars) until a vaccine which totally blows.
Sucks to be a guy in their mid 20s around this time. It will take probably a minimum of 2 years for things to get to normal.
Crap is butt.
Hi WSO,
Just wanted to follow up on the above. Any update on any banks requiring employees to go to work or allowing them to work?
Please let me know how I can be helpful.
Regards, Richard
Haven't heard of any banks allowing all employees back in the office yet. My team has been live in an off-site location since this started and we also don't have a return date. General consensus is firms will remain WFH until results from reopening show (approx 3 wks post open).
Any update here? Let me know if you have any questions I can help answer to speed up the process.
Anybody going into work? I fear that if things start getting better really quickly, banks will accelerate their timeline such taht instaed of us coming in in September, we come in end of June.
Think they'll push it earlier than what they said to us?
My friends' bank said they are doing quarantine in waves so people will be allowed to come into the office starting early July. You can WFH until like Sept or Oct if youre uncomfy
alright peeps, I was out all weekend at the beach now that the entire southeast is open for dine-in (some states allowing bars, others not). a little recap
the beaches were fine. 6 feet apart not an issue whatsoever, but still plenty of people out there. rip currents were the bigger danger on the east coast, I think Arthur moved some sandbars around. saw some groups but nothing crazy, weren't in other peoples business, and they must not have been bad off because the cops I saw weren't paying them any attention. minimal masks on the beach (thankfully), I did see a lot of butts that don't belong in thongs and dad bods that I'm sure used to be gym bros, so quarantine 15 is real and unfortunate. get slim folks, no excuses.
bars and restaurants seem to be fine at the coast, mixed inland. had dinner with wifey Friday night before going to the coast and everything was a bit slower, guessing they had to lay off cooks and wait staff. exercising patience was key, because if I didn't know our server, I would've thought they weren't trying. heard from friends in other parts of the city that things normalized more saturday, lots of people out but no incidents, people being patient, staying 6' apart when able. at the coast, maybe because beach towns weren't hammered as much, maybe because everyone's just pumped to be at the beach, idk, only struggle was parking but that's normal for MDW.
the mood seemed different. maybe that's just me and trying to be positive all the time, maybe people were relieved to go out again, maybe it was decent weather, I don't know, but when we ate outside Saturday night alongside a bunch of other random groups, everyone seemed to be jovial and happy to be out. a sense of respect, not worry seemed to be in the air, letting people walk ahead of you so you're not too close in a doorway, giving people plenty of space when waiting in line/at the bar, and so on
wifey and I plan on hitting a couple more of our local spots this week and try to help our favorite servers/bartenders with their rent, also looking ahead to another big weekend on the coast, will let you know if anything changes.
also, if you're going to comment on how I'm irresponsible for going out, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I hope everyone had a nice MDW remembering those who gave the ultimate sacrifice
You think these improving conditions are better than you anticipated? I wonder whether all businesses will open up sooner now or if many will still wait for a vaccine to be developed?
it is better than I anticipated. it was definitely a quieter than normal MDW, on the business side, what I saw was some difficulty with balancing govt guidelines with the realities of square footage. it's not easy. the restaurant we went into on Friday because of the nature of the floorplan had well more than half of its tables closed off to meet social distancing requirements. another one leaned on good weather and plenty of outdoor space to do it. it's really going to be up to the business owner. maybe some can survive on half capacity or takeout only with just a skeleton crew.
I think waiting for a vaccine is a fucking joke. not saying this because I'm a Trump dick rider and cuz muh libs are so stoopid y'all, but because of the simple fact that not every disease is curable/preventable with a vaccine, even if one is available there's no guarantee it will be effective, and if it does get discovered, it will take years for the manufacturing, safety tests, efficacy tests, and distribution to occur properly, no matter how fast the FDA fast tracks it. we still don't have a SARS or MERS vaccine or a Hong Kong flu (1968 I think) vaccine, and it took until December 2019 for the first ebola vaccine to be approved by the FDA. this shit is not easy science, so even under the most optimistic assumptions (maybe 1-2 years), I think it's ridiculous to say you won't go anywhere for another 1-2 years, unless you are severely immunocompromised, in which case you're probably not a big restauranteur or barfly to begin with.
it's just not a tenable solution for an owner to say they won't open until theres a vaccine. it''s fine to say "we can't safely social distance for dine in, we'll be doing takeout only and open up the patio for the time being" or "because we are concerned for our employees safety, we won't be allowing dine in at this time. we will however, be expanding our catering, delivery, and take out options to meet your needs." some businesses that open up will still fail. others that stay closed will be fine. say you want to wait for the numbers to get better, say you want to wait for there to be more testing, say you want to wait until your government goes into whatever phase allows large gatherings, or say you'll become a hermit because you're afraid, I don't care. but to say you're waiting for a vaccine is just intellectually dishonest.
Kind of accidentally went out over MDW, people are definitely out and raging again.
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