Which offer should I take?

Considering a couple of offers atm in L/S for NY - I'm 1.5 years in as an analyst in IB

1) 10-20bln, recent track record OK, senior guys seemed pretty checked out, big team with lots of smart people, great name - probably would have to leave at some point to ever get a senior role as I expect them to shut down at some point in the next couple of years based on what I heard.

2) Small fund

 
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