Best Response

The M&A markets is ultimately determined by CEO sentimentality. When the equity markets are up, rising and stable, CEOs feel good and are bullish about buying and selling companies. They buy more because they anticipate future growth and synergies to be realized. They sell because they are comfortable selling companies / assets at high price / valuations. When the markets are volatile and depressed (as it is now), it is hard for CEOs to project out growth and sell when asset prices are way off their 52 week / all-time highs...

Thus, M&A markets are up during the good times and down during the bad times. That is why a primarily M&A-focused shop like Lazard purchsed Lazard MM to pursue restructuring, which is a natural buffer. Restructuring behaves in opposite ways in which it goes up during bad times and down during good times.

Ignore secondary effects like financing costs and interest rates. These factors help, but do not determine M&A levels. Primarily, M&A levels are a function of corporate sentiments.

 

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