Looking at this question from a business perspective, we say there's no chance in hell facebook will remain a private company, Mark Zuckerburg will want to cash out and make facebook the biggest IPO (if not bigger) since Google, but Mark Zuckerburg is no business man and I think Facebook means more to him than any sum of money in the world.
I am currently reading The Accidental Billionaires, the story behind Mark Zuckerburg and the founding of facebook which is a great read and I recommend it to all of you. The book discusses Facebook from the beginning before there even was Facebook and Mark Zuckerburg really does not care about the money. What high school kid turns down $2M for a little start up and a full time job at a massive tech company? Mark Zuckerburg did because it was about more than the money. Another thing that struck out to me was that he did not care about earning more than enough revenues to keep the site running in the sites first few months, he did not want or try to get advertisers to the site that managed to get 75000 users in no time. Mark Zuckerburg also turned down a billion dollar offer by either Microsoft or Yahoo (can't remember) when facebook was still a young company. I know some of you might say he saw it being worth much much more than that, but a billion dollars out the door, you only need to get rich once and I don't think there's anything you can't do for a billion dollars.
Now the question is, do you think he will make facebook a public company and give up his baby and have to worry about and deal with shareholders. He has put his all into this company and it is about so much more than the money to him. I know he has been asked the question about going public and he has said it is not the right time, but will Mark ever think it's the right time to give his pride and joy up to the public for some $$$. I would love to hear your thoughts and do recommend this book to anyone that has not read it. It is a great read and even goes into details about these nerdy kids getting laid for their first time in college after they became famous from "The Facebook." I would love to hear what you guys have to say.
he has ~25% of shares, he may not have the right to veto if other shareholders want an exit.
Yes, EVENTUALLY it will go IPO. He has no choice, investors need an exit to see a return. Zucks has already been compensated in previous rounds of financing so he's not looking for cash, as previously stated.
BUT dont expect an IPO anytime soon, Zucks has gone on the record saying that they want to take some big risks with product development that shareholders just wouldnt approve of. Look back, Newsfeed, the redesign, privacy changes and other developments were controversial when implemented but are now valuable to the business model. Also FB being Pre-IPO allows them to still attract top talent, which is a problem Google is currently facing. With a shortage of good engineers, they would rather work for a pre-IPO company where there is still the chance they could get rich working there (eg pre-IPO companies, facebook being the biggest and arguably the best one)
They will go public when they feel they are at the height of their valuation, and when the time is right.
I think the time for an IPO would be now, Facebook has hit a peak in my opinion and it's on the track to the sewer pipe.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/09/20/100920fa_fact_vargas?curr…
This is a long article but if you read it you will see he does not give a shit about selling this. Honestly, he was given the chance to sell to yahoo and become a billionaire at 20. To him, its not about the money. He has a vision that facebook will be the internet, that it will be the way people interact. He mentions in this article he would like to see facebook get to a point where you turn on your tv, and facebook will be on your tv, and it will tell you which of your friends are watching that show.
As for facebook hitting a peak, completely disagree. I've made my point on other facebook threads on this site and don't feel like getting into again here.
Great article!
The real question you guys should be asking is when should we go public with WSO?
WSO > Facebook
Reading threads about business / world events with (mostly) intelligent people > reading status updates about "making bad decisions!" and whatever random bullshit so-and-so retard is doing.
I don't think shareholders will be too comfortable with the CEO of WSO being based in Buenos Aires.
they don't have to know...or we can vote in a new CEO before the IPO.
Though I heavily disagree with the decisions he's made regarding user privacy, I can't help but respect Zuckerberg for the vision and purpose with which he's led Facebook. It really takes a leader with a high-level perspective and an eye on more than the money to bring a company to greatness.
Facebook lives in a world of short lifespans. Even the Microsofts get overtaken by the Googles and Apples.
I'd be going public with Facebook before it drifts into oblivion like Myspace.
Besy Buy has a commercial advertising a television by Samsung TV that allows you to update your twitter and your facebook right from your couch.
A recent Sears commercial features the Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube logos when the Sears logo flashes at the end of the ad.
The liquor store near my school, located in the heart of the ghetto, had signs posted all around the store to find their facebook page.
Major companies are hiring social networking managers to manage their facebook and twitter pages.
None of this happened when Myspace was big, because myspace was not as good of a site. Honestly, facebook is ubiquitous.
Oo, and Goodluck Johnathon, the President of Nigeria, today announced that he will be running for reelection. He did so via his facebook page.
CNBC tells you to find them on facebook and twitter between segments.
Facebook and twitter are linked to every major internet news source, and have links on almost every article. You can now like articles, products, or pages on a variety of different websites. I don't remember myspace having this five years ago.
You can log into CBS.com or Yelp (amongst others) using your facebook account.
My phone (Droid 2) has a feature where you can add all of your facebook friends to your contact list.
Honestly, if you think this is some trend, you are very mistaken. This site is big, it still has enormous potential, and its become so ingrained in our culture that their is no way it will face the same fate as myspace.
Microsoft may not be the rainmaker it was in the 90's, but it's still the bluest of the blue chips. Let's not forget about AOL and failure to take over the world with Time Warner. Remember how popular that shit was? Everyone had AOL. Now, I can't remember the last night I saw someone an email with an AOL address. I had to go to the website to see if it still existed!
http://www.aol.com/
Of course that was during the .com bubble. Maybe this is the social networking bubble?
And they're going public in 2012:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-30/facebook-said-to-put-off-share…
What I would do to get on the floor for that one...
I continue to use myspace to find new bands and local gigs so I guess its safe to say that myspace never became redundant.
I don't get twitter. It's an absolutely garbage site that is totally redundant given facebook's existence and dominance.
Anyway, I, too, was convinced years ago that facebook was going out like the rest of them, but as has been mentioned, it seems like any major (and most minor) business in the Western world has some sort of connection to facebook. Frankly, facebook in its current state is very useful for news, events, coupons, business information, political information, etc. I held out until March 2005, but ever since I joined, I've seen an incredible evolution from simple and good to perhaps a little too complex but useful. Facebook is great for the people who are drudgereport and realclearpolitics-type users--these sites consolidate dispirate information into one useful area. Frankly, if not for work, I'd be on the internet only 20 minutes per day to get information thanks to the consolidation of information. In sum, I don't see facebook dying off any time soon.
Twitter is an amazing RSS type device. I used to hate it also, but I find it pretty useful and interesting. Try setting one up and playing with it, I think you might be surprised.
2012: once they get currency right and location on track...
I used to be in the facebook is the next myspace camp, but after learning more about Zuckerberg and his visions for the company, I think we might unfortunately be stuck with it for a while. That said, I'm not sure there is much room for growth in revenue beyond what they are already at. I think for real growth the company would have to transition into completely new lines of business.
Hey guys, feel free to kick my ass on this one, but it is my understanding that Facebook has never been profitable. How can you take an unprofitable company public? Unless Facebook starts charging for access, it will need investment infusion upon investment infusion to stay afloat.
You do understand that profitability is not a requirement for an IPO? Look no further than Tesla recently (albeit a far smaller-scale offering).
They have around $500mm in revenues, I think they are profitable (if not thats only due to reinvestment)
I will kick your ass, because they are profitable.
Well you're partially correct. They were operating Cash Flow negative probably just until about a year ago. Now I believe the previous stated figure is correct of approximately $500mm dollars. For all of those individuals who believe that Facebook is just a "Fad" I believe you are terribly mistaken. The growth in not only just pure numbers joining the service (Now at 500 million users) but also businesses creating fan pages and taken the platform seriously as well as platform and game designers (Farmville, Mafia Wars, etc . . .) is astonishing. I believe the vision is going to be Facebook as THE internet platform with many current components of websites operating off of the Facebook platform.
For example, I have subscribed and "Liked" several media sources now such as "The Economist", "TED", and others and when I'm on the go and now check my "News Feed" I actually get real news delivered by these sources as articles are published. In addition, I get to see user's comments of these topics themselves. This is act alone is interesting to me as it is bringing all the web forums on the internet into a central HUB. Give this infrastructure more time to develop and in a few years, we may be solely writing these entries within a WSO Fan Page within and only within Facebook. I believe that is where this platform is heading. It is almost going to be a separate internet entity operating in the cloud.
In addition, as more and more business incorporate their services and marketing dollars into Facebook and as more and more users actually start "Opening Up" and sharing their thoughts, Facebook (ie. Facebook Connect) is essentially scraping the web and bringing information directly to the consumer based on their own preferences without them even asking for it. For example, one of your friends is getting married, synch with "Bloomingdales Bridal" ad etc... right on the news feed This is even different than Google's current model as with Google you still need to enter in a query to view these advertisements. With Facebook, ads will be more subliminal and more directly catered to the user/users immediate network.
Even with gaming, Xbox Live has signed agreements to work with Facebook to sync up Friends Lists hold statistics, etc . . . The internet is becoming less and less anonymous and like it or not, and with top talent such as Sheryl Sandberg and others alike, Facebook is here for the long haul.
Will the underwriters of the WSO IPO get paid in silver bananas?
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