What's happening to RIM?

Connor:

Looking at the time that article was published... It's safe to say that was the reason.

Ever since RIMM imploded, there have been so many rumors regarding a takeover. Take it with a grain of salt.. But could be interesting. Icahn seems to be doing the rounds regarding takeovers (check out Netflix and Take Two).

Heard it on our squakbox at the start of the day, gained some solid momentum for a bit.

Can't find anything legit About it on the net either. Was wondering if anyone also heard this rumour today ...

Damn, this guy's on a role.

Interesting. Maybe Carl has an idea how to make RIMM successful again. Concentrating on hardware may be a good start...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/us-rim-idUSTRE78Q39A20110927

That pretty much sums up Icahn + RIMM. The company will probably be ripped apart....

Nearing $10 in pre-market..If this rumour the only thing driving the stock up? Nice short if it is again a false rumour...

It was also upgraded to hold by Jefferies which might have contributed to this mini-rally.

This will be a Palm type stock....don't short it, that's for sure....

No idea at what price it gets taken out

Why would you want to buy RIM?

Software? No.

Hardware? No.

Customer base...maybe?

Out of your list I would just rule out Apple. The two companies seem so diametrically opposite I can't see them together. Apple likes to generally focus on a few core products. Bringing in a new line, with new engineers, new software, etc. seems so bad I can't imagine it. Nokia probably needs it the most. MSFT just struck that deal with Nokia so I find it would have proven a gigantic waste of money- unless MSFT thinks Nokia is gonna go under in the next year. Maybe Motorola or someone like that.

I would place a bet on a PE firm if it even happens. I feel that RIM is a good turnaround prospect. It seems that the management now is too loving of the old style, and too scared to embrace the newer aspects of phone technology. When they do adapt, they do it poorly (read: Storm). Unless the new OS and phone technology is groundbreaking, they need to be taken over by someone willing to put a lot of money into making the net best phone rather than relying on the existing BB consumer base.

-> 0

RIMM will never sell. Takeover would have to be hostile, which won't happen with Balsillie at the helm. He'd rather let the company burn than be kicked out. Plus, Waterloo is a tight-knit community. The remaining 15,000+ employees wouldn't take kindly to an American corp. grabbing one of Canada's last remaining tech prides.

Execs are unanimous in stating they have been overly beaten this past quarter. They feel they are undervalue as it is. I happen to agree with them, as they still have a very healthy balance sheet and a bright future in emerging markets. All this talk about new QNX OS is bullshit. That won't make or break RIMM. China is going to make or break RIMM.

Apple would be interested for its enterprise server business, but as that is all lumped together with smartphones, and thus AAPL and any other big names would essentially be paying double what they would value enterprise at as it's close to a 50:50 split between enterprise and smartphones...

So in short, don't short, and don't bet on a takeover.

I'm LONG RIMM till Q2 of 2012. Trying hard to ignore the noise.

The short play for RIMM was months ago in march. I think if you have the capital to ride it maybe just maybe emerging markets will help RIMM out.

RIMM needs to stop making shitty phones. Simple as that. It's been a downhill ridge ever since the launch of the STORM. What a POS.

MSFT buying RIMM would be a death knell for both MSFT and RIMM.

After forcing mediocre products onto users for more than a decade (see Vista, IE, and Outlook), people are not going to opt to buy any MSFT product unless they absolutely have to.

Apple is sitting on $70bn+, and although its not burning holes in their pockets, RIMM still holds a large enough chunk of the smartphone and enterprise market (~25%) that paying a $5bn premium on RIMM's $15bn market cap is a good buy: 1) Access to security patents, 2) Access to corporate clients

I get into arguments about RIMM all the time--I would short it, for all the well-documented reasons. My logic is that consumers don't think logically or rationally about products, especially electronics. It doesn't matter if the Bold 9900 is the best phone ever made; people will only want the phone with the Apple logo on it even if it's an inferior product.

Second, Blackberry's market share is not growing and is restricted to a smaller segment of the consumer population. That's bad news, because in general you obviously would want to invest in a growing company.

Warren Buffett's reason for not getting into tech stocks is that he doesn't understand them and thinks they have to spend too much on R&D to remain competitive. Even then, the competitive advantage from R&D will disappear quickly as everyone else copies it. He has a rule of thumb that any amount of R&D spending that takes up more than 15% of Gross Profit is too much, and you should stay away.

"It's a dog with different fleas, pal."

I have valued the company and I was a buy at 24-25 and it went up 10% next day..

DCF with a 5% initial growth rate and 1% stable growth for TV shows a trgt of 31

comps with 1 year forward P/E and a multiple of 5 also shows target of 30-32.

Book value per share is $18.. now a company with no debt and a Current ratio above 1 has a low to almost no chances of going bankrupt in atlst the next few years unless somthn bizzarre happens.

Again, its a growing concern with over 60% growth in international markets. and QNX is pretty good for what it does. However with reduced EPS targets, ASP's and BB mobile and Playbook shipments, it would not go beyond 30 levels.

Value stock with 10-15% up side tops

Yes, buy!!!!

(puts)

@ op , Im guessinggggg you didnt major in economics ha! otherwise you'd have a clue as to what's happening

I don't get why Blackberry's have such a bad rep. I have the torch and its fine, a bit underpowered yeah, but its messaging capabilities/email blow the iphone and droid out of the water. Blackberry's do what they are designed to do very well, they are not toys or entertainment devices and were never meant to be.

RIMM is taking a stroll down value territory.

I've been trading it a little bit trying to find the bottom to take a small position. I'll echo what some have said, the smart phone market is still growing so prospects for RIM are not as bleak as most are envisioning. With a low P/E there is some value present (RIMM is not going to just keel over and die one day) - and it might be worth it to buy in anticipation of a buyout (Palm).

Nice takeover target, some cheap OTM calls could work. Theta will hurt but you can always fund with put sales if youre confident.

Sure it's a good takeover target, but who would be the buyer?

Any thoughts on the possibility of inventory write downs? Look at how extensive they have been at Nokia.

Does anybody what their intangible assets are worth? Management likes to claim they are valuable patents/software/etc, but that could be a load of bullshit and just a way to cover up poor capital allocation.

CEO restructuring. Buy buy buy

It's had an insane run since late last year and has nearly tripled since September. I'd expect some money being taken off the table at his point.

Bear. Even if they double their market share they're still going to be well under 5%. RIMM has had it's day in its current format, as has BlackBerry.

as they say "priced in", but youd be surprised what that means....i think it can have a decent run ip, but lets be honest unless its ABSOLUTELY killer, i dont think people will be flocking to it, now the may use their next upgrade, but they wont be buying it flat out, with that said if you want to take a position, id consider a long straddle (buy a call, buy a put)...could have cleaned up with NFLX and APPL with limited risk, your just playing the price movement/VOL

bull.

People are going bat shit crazy over rimm now. You dont buy in to a company when people are hyped to it, simple as that. You buy when theyre undervalued and when there is blood in the street.

Overheated, time to sell

Buy puts imo. Their new business plan with tiered service plans is going to disrupt their earnings for the next few quarters and likely miss them. Emerging markets the majority of their business now with low gm on hardware sales, lower ARPU on service revenues, and are getting pressured in the enterprise market. Their only advantage currently in enterprise over the BYOD desktop virtualization solutions most likely is the fact they are the legacy company and IT department has easier time provisioning and managing their products. But if desktop virtualization reaches the saturation level of server virutalization then you'll be able to log into your work stuff securely thru your phone anyways so won't even need RIMMs secure network, which likes to go down every 6 months.

That's my 2 cents, take it with a grain of salt since i have no skin in this game. Too speculative for me.

If all you are expecting is a 15% move over 6 months I don't think options is the way to go about it.

Options are probably pricing in a decent premium to account for a move. In regards to the actual product, I think RIM is simply to late to the game. iPhone, Droid, and Samsung run the market and I honestly don't expect these guys to go out and buy a BB phone. Best case, BB10 will slow the bleeding, worst case, the stock will get hammered and the company will die.

Put. First, RIM has been publicly criticized for making too much promise too early (look at their half-baked QNX Playbook). Second, the famous QWERTY keyboard version of BB10 won't be out until the second half of 2013, so don't expect BB10 will be the game changer, and it most likely won't. Why? 5 months of time is sufficient for RIM's competitors making a strike-back. For instance, Apple is looking to launch another line of iPhone that serves to target the low-end segment of the industry. In a nut shell, it's too early to proclaim the success of BB10 and making a call at current state won't do better than a coin-flip.

Damn, up 11% today. I voted against my strategy in the end anyway, mostly due to not realizing the qwerty won't be out until second half '13, which IMO is their best bet at a comeback. To buy options now is purely speculation on my part.

thank, god you didn't listen to me. But i still think they are going down.

I still think the upside potential for RIMM is still very very attractive. If somehow they manage to snatch 5% of Apple's mobile phone market share, their market share would jump by about 10 folds. Seems like an extremely asymmetrical trade.

Btw, I am long RIMM @$11. Very happy at the moment

Screw RIMM, long NOK!

I just might advice clients on getting long NOK, I just need to look more into the breakdown of sales numbers. Are the Apple hipsters ditching the Iphone, skipping Galaxy and moving into Lumia?

I've been long RIMM since $6. Still feel stock is mispriced based on risk/reward profile. Jefferies turned around a month or two ago with a $43 bull case if BB10 is successful.

wow. what a start

Ive played around with the BB10. Hardware wise it matches the iphone and lags the samsungs/other androids like the htc. Software wise it still lags all.

As an iphone owner, I would not switch to BB10. I assume Samsung owners wouldn't switch either.

Well this sucks, I never got to buy the $12 calls I wanted because my bank needed updated paperwork...1.5 weeks ago.... which I gave them that same day, and even today I still can't buy options. The ones I was going for have more than doubled in value since then, and I'm pretty sure we've seen most of the gains we're gonna get out of BB10 IMO. Goddamnit RBC!!

Props to the guys long at $6 and $11. I don't think they will get the market share they need though. Like others have said, I personally think this is Samsung's year. Too little too late imo.

$43 bull case would be crazy... Just don't think BB10 will do it though.

Well given the recent market action, a pretty large size pull back can be expected...maybe. The question now is that will one be able to sit through the pain.

Okay guys, i realize this is the wrong thread, but check out bank of ireland. The opportunities seems abundant.