#Wynning

MARKETS

• Global markets: Word of the week? Volatility. With the U.S. prepping for new sanctions on Iran and a high-stakes meeting with China, global markets are all but guaranteed some turbulence.
• Turkish elections: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is sweating after an opposition candidate won a re-do vote for mayor of Istanbul. Investors are craving economic reforms.

BIZ IN D.C.

Please Save Census Questions for the End

The Supreme Court is gearing up to decide whether the government can add just one more question to its survey.

But it’s a big one. SCOTUS, with its 5-4 conservative majority, will rule on the Trump administration’s aim to ask about citizenship status in the 2020 census. The Robetrotters are expected to hand down a ruling by the end of the month (July countdown: seven days), just in time for the government to start printing the census forms you’ll get in the mail soon.

The two sides:

• Side one: Supporters say adding the question will make for a more laser-accurate count of citizen/non-citizen numbers. They say it could also offer a better pulse check for the ongoing immigration debate.
• Side two: Opponents think it’s a deliberate attempt by the GOP to undercount populations—especially of immigrants and Latinos—for its political benefit. Critics (like this Minnesota business leader) say immigrants will be less likely to answer out of fear of being targeted by the government.

What’s on the line

Political science professor Chris Warshaw told the FT the response rate for immigrant groups will likely dip five percentage points if the question is added. If that happens, California, Texas, New York, and Florida could risk losing seats in the House, Warshaw forecast.

Then there's the money. About $880 billion in federal spending is distributed each year for education, public health, infrastructure, etc. And where that’s allocated is based on census data.

• Fewer residents filling out their census surveys = fewer $$$ in federal funding for their districts.

Big Business has never been one to sit out a debate, too. A coalition of companies including Uber, Lyft, Ben & Jerry’s, and Levi Strauss told the Supreme Court an inaccurate headcount would skewer data-driven decisions like finding qualified workers, marketing products, or deciding where to build stores.

PHARMA

Is It Hot in Here or Is That Just the FDA?

U.S. regulators are apparently rewatching Thrones, because they’ve given the greenlight to a new drug called Vyleesi.

The drug is designed to boost low sex drive in women. It’s administered as a shot about 45 minutes before the “anticipation” of intimacy, so...right after you crack open an archive of Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letters.

And it’s addressing a very underserved market. Vyleesi is only the second FDA-approved medication to increase women’s sex drives. In 2015, a pill called Addyi launched to serve a similar function, but it didn’t take off because, well, you can’t mix it with alcohol.

For men, blockbuster sex drugs like Viagra have been around for decades.

• While sales of Viagra have gone soft as generic competitors enter the market, it once did about $1.8 billion in annual sales for Pfizer.

According to Vyleesi manufacturer AMAG Pharmaceuticals, 5.8 million premenopausal American women suffer from decreased sexual desire. AMAG thinks that could create a $35 million annual market for every 1% of affected women.

GEOPOLITICS

You Can’t Spell "Peace" Without $50 Billion

The White House revealed a $50 billion proposal to boost the Palestinian economy and kickstart an Israeli-Palestinian peace process that’s been stuck in neutral.

The plan’s KPIs over 10 years:

• Double the Palestinian GDP, create over 1 million jobs in the West Bank and Gaza, drop the high Palestinian unemployment rate to nearly single digits, and lower the Palestinian poverty rate by 50%.
• The “signature” project is a $5 billion transportation corridor between the West Bank and Gaza.

So who’s writing that $50 billion check? President Trump’s son-in-law and plan architect, Jared Kushner, hopes both Gulf states (like Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E.) and private investors will see financial opportunity.

The backdrop: Kushner is finalizing the centerpieces for an investment conference he’s hosting in Bahrain starting tomorrow. However, Palestinian officials rejected the proposal, object to the conference, and won’t attend. The Israeli government won’t be there, either.

Zoom out: In classic college project fashion, the White House is saving the trickiest part of the process—a political proposal to accompany the economic plan—for last.

GAMBLING

Boston Can’t Stop Wynning

You’re in Boston. The clock strikes 2am. If you’re still looking to party...there’s only one place you can go: the Encore Boston Harbor, Wynn Resorts’s $2.6 billion casino that opened yesterday in Everett, MA.

But serving drinks until 4am isn’t the only experiment here. The Encore Boston Harbor will be one of the only integrated resorts in the shadow of a major U.S. city, so the gambling industry is watching its performance closely.

Ok, now to what you’re really reading for: the amenities.

• 671 guest rooms, each equipped with an Amazon Echo device
• 3,158 slot machines, 143 table games, and 88 poker tables
• $68 lobster roll
• State-of-the-art surveillance system conceived by Bill Belichick

Zoom out: In the months before the opening, regulators put up caution tape following sexual assault allegations against founder Steve Wynn. They ended up allowing Wynn Resorts to keep its license but handed down a $35 million fine.

CALENDAR

The Week Ahead

Prepare your closing arguments...the debates are back.

Monday: NBA Awards; weekend countdown officially resets

Tuesday: Bitcoin 2019 conference begins; earnings (Micron Technology, FedEx)

Wednesday: Durable goods; first Democratic primary debate; earnings (Pier 1 Imports, General Mills)

Thursday: Second Democratic primary debate; earnings (Nike, Accenture, Walgreens Boots Alliance, ConAgra Brands)

Summer Friday: PCE index; G20 summit in Japan; 50th anniversary of Stonewall riots; 100th anniversary of the Treaty of Versailles

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Vanguard Group is talking to PE firms about diving further into alternative investments, the WSJ reports.
• Eldorado Resorts has agreed to an $18 billion deal to merge with Caesars Entertainment, per Reuters.
• Toy Story 4 brought in $118 million in its opening weekend in North America, a franchise-best but also below expectations.
• Eleven people were killed in a plane crash in Hawaii. The flight was operated by a skydiving company.
• Climate activists ended their protest in a German coal mine.

BREAKROOM

Greater Than or Less Than

1. Number of Slack employees // Number of dogs registered to work at Amazon’s Seattle HQ
2. Calories in the Impossible Burger // Calories in a McDonald’s four-piece Chicken McNuggets
3. U.S. projected population in 2050 // Nigeria’s projected population in 2050
4. Bernie Sanders’s polling average in Iowa // Elizabeth Warren’s polling average in Iowa

Breakroom Answers

Greater Than or Less Than
Less than. There are fewer Slack employees than Amazon dogs. ~2,000 Greater than. There are more calories in an Impossible Burger than a four-piece order of Chicken McNuggets. 240 > 180.
Less than. Nigeria's population is projected to top the U.S.' population by 2050.
Greater than. Bernie’s polling higher than Warren.