Looking to get some of the opinions of the other physical trade guys in the forum, but anyone feel free to chime in. Given the moves XOM has made, what are your opinions on having another monster trading shop coming into the market? I agree with the sentiment that they arent going to start paper trading, but the change of the company being anything different than a price taker is going to be substantial. I know they are essentially anchoring a new trading hub out in Big Perm.
Also there have always been certain market signs, like when the banks are in energy trading times are good. What does this behemoth coming online mean?
Honestly its tough to say. Its not like the Midland and Houston markets are super opaque anymore...
The line they are building with Plains will be an obvious relief valve int he basin, but at this rate its just everybody and their mother going full steam ahead and the chance for a massive overbuild (read: boring trading environment) is highly likely. Peeps are just going crazy about the diffs right now because they are massive and not a lot of people saw it coming, so any way to either optimize the space or have the appearance of doing better than market for the next 18 months is helpful.
They clearly have big growth plans, and it will be a great direct connection to their Baytown refinery expansion, so who knows what happens next.
All I can say is when Exxon is in the physical market, get out of the way...
too early to tell but sounds like movement in the right direction
Agree with Monty, movement in the right direction. I understand their point of worry up until now of being accused of market manipulation but XOM probably has one of the best global books on the planet, about time they build out some real asset optimization, trading, etc. desks
XOM staffing up - even so I don’t see them as a sophisticated trade shop. Spreads will be flat soon, P2K, BMX, GCX will make sure of that. I think watch out Katy, volumes coming in big time.
They've done a lot of poaching from P66, know this for a fact.
Maybe on the crude and products that means something but P66 is nowhere in nat gas.
I dont think they will be trading gas
Definitely very interested in how this evolves. Any insights on Exxon vs BP vs Shell would be valuable.
If you have both opportunities in hand and have to choose between either I think you will touch more commercial stuff faster at Exxon. BP/shell you will be rotated through risk, scheduling, quant, etc. and then you may or may not have a shot at the desk. (You will still learn a TON so don’t discount that)
I think it would be more valuable to soak up what you can at XOM and then go to a trade shop at a later date.
Like I said all 3 are great options. If I had to pick between bp or shell I’d go BP. They are just so much larger than anyone out there on the gas side.
Not sure what product you're focused on. But if it's Natty gas, BP over Shell. BPs just fucking huge. Shell also does some weird reorg often.
In the process with them now for a Nat Gas trader/originator role.
Competition is stiff.
Anyone else looking at applying at Exxon?
Dude straight up told me I was the low hanging fruit. I figure they're trying to poach BP and Conoco among others SW folks. Can't blame them. But I'm boss, too.
Conoco is reviving their trade desk, though not nearly to the intention to be on par with BP. Rotation program toward crude products is coming together as of this past year.
Know quite a few people who have accepted offers at XOM over P66 for various reasons, astounding comp for starters. P66 is a packed house with a lot of overfilled roles from what I'm told.
Their gas desk is getting busier. But XOM is targeting those folks for gas, not me. What a tease that interview was.
BP/Shell over XOM by a mile right now and next 12 months..
way too soon to see what XOM is trying to do and what they actually do in fact do
I could definitely agree with that, although like @NattyGz said, right now it seems like Exxon gives the opportunity to touch more a lot earlier. They've been taking talent from places like crazy. While you would have tons to learn from being at a place like BP or Shell early in your career, the entrepreneurial aspect of building up the floor seems to be valuable as well. Plus they don't have a line out the door of people coming out of their training programs yet.
disagree 100%.
Exxon is still exxon
Yes - you will still need to file 1 by 1 up the steps and hold the hand rail. But Exxon is not Exxon like it was 8 years ago, with the acquisition of XTO and relocation they are evolving and I think building a desk there would be a great experience fresh out of school.
I'm with you. Going over what they're trying to do; still real processed based but you'll get some freedom.
If the opportunity arises, I'll take it. Pays best I think I'll ever see, too. At least base wise, at this level.
I think I know who their first options are, and it isn't budget that'll stop them from getting them. I think it's options and bonus timing.
Interesting insights !
Late to the conversation, but here are my thoughts. I'm surprised it has taken them this long. They've got different DNA to Totsa, Shell and BP, but they must have watched these shops closely over the past few years -- they've delivered more free cash flow than upstream in some quarters from 2014-2016. I think Exxon will do it incrementally. They've already got the system, so the balances won't change. The impact of their presence will depend on how aggressively they want to start leveraging that. It's definitely big enough to move markets.
and big enough to lose a few bucks and go back to sleep. I just don't see them committed for the long term
Exxon doesn't dabble but I think they will do things incrementally. They've already been hiring from BP, Glencore, P66, BHP. Aramco did it, and most signs are pointing to their success and expansion.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-mobil-trading-exclusive/exclus…
Agree with monty - I think they're dabbling (note XOM dabbling = spend $b on spec) after seeing some success at their neighbors. Maybe undervaluing the challenge a bit - time will tell. Looking forward to them in LNG via Golden Pass
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