Where are we in the market cycle ? (Commercial Multi-family/Retail)

In my limited research, what I have personally found is that the current real estate market cycle seems to be in a state of hyper supply. It comes to my understanding that a complete cycle happens approximately every sixteen-eighteen years and this happens in four stages: recovery, expansion, hyper supply, and recession. I'm not extremely familiar to whether this applies to the whole market or if this is specifically residential/commercial.

Are my findings on par or is there a better understanding of these cycles?

Also what other variables contribute in effecting CRE market cycles?

I would assume it's more complex than this, but if anyone can provide their input I am all ears!

 

Okay I understand. So, if there are various market cycles within different cities/supermarkets, then how to you proficiently follow these different cycles?

I'm primarily concerned with multi-family investment properties.

 

Retail is going through a pretty dramatic change, but overall fundamentals are strong. We're past the peak, but I think there is plenty of runway left.

The real estate investment community is different than it was pre-2009. Investors and Lenders are much more disciplined, and I do not believe that the market is over-leveraged like it was pre-GFC.

 

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