Monkeys, Another week passes, and with it comes the penning of another concerning article regarding the future of this aging nation. Witness Illinois: as of this post, they have $14.6 billion in unpaid bills. That encompasses everything from hospital reimbursements to road construction payments. For two years, these obligations have gone unmet, with many services being cut back or crumbling outright. When the next set of bills come due, many contracts will be halted mid
30 Jun 2017
Hi everyone! :) I am a Spanish graduate student attending an Ivy League university in the US (think Wharton/Columbia/Yale) studying finance and economics. I know I want to work in the Buy Side but I am still unsure if I should do AM or PB. I appreciate work/life balance and I would like to work in EU (UK/ Spain/ Switzerland) after graduation. I have two interesting offers for this summer and both have pros and cons, so I am not sure which one to choose, given that both want me to intern with them on July-August. The positions and characteristics are the following: 1. Dodge & Cox -
26 Jan 2021
Hi guys, Does anyone have any recommendations for any good books to read providing a good insight into Macroeconomics (for relative beginners). Something that is also good for entry level Investment Banking interviews. Thank you.
06 Jun 2018
As many of you might be aware of, the threat of a government shutdown this weekend still looms large. As of right now, there is no agreement on an extension and so the shutdown is a real possibility. How will it affect the economy/capital markets? According to Bloomberg: [quote]"Both bond markets and equity markets right now are telling you that this is a nonevent, at least so far .... If you go back and look at 2013, when we had the last government shutdown, it was pretty much a nonevent. You did get about a 5 percent correction in equities, but it started well in advance. The markets have a
19 Jan 2018
Hello, just wanted to get a few thoughts on my analysis of markets in North America (macro perspective). The last pic has my brief view of all the charts provided by the OECD. Thanks in advance.
05 May 2017
I was wondering if anyone could explain how ER analyst approach writing reports that include looking at the economy of countries THAN going down to a sector and THAN companies. I am interested in improving my Macro to Micro knowledge and I would like to get a start ASAP. Hopefully I can get some info from analysts that do this for a living and can possibly break this down to a systematic approach or at least an outline approach that I can fill in as I learn more.
21 Aug 2011
Hey guys! Anyone heard of Elm Partners? www.elmfunds.com They are headed by Victor Haghani (ex Solomon Brothers/LTCM/JWM trader,also known from "When Genius Failed" & "Liar's Poker" books). Hows their reputation? They have Active Index Investing strategy. More info on their website and on videos below:
Any thoughts on their strategies? Do you think they would be an interesting place for a career? [quote]Elm will make about $433,000 this year from its 0.12 percent management fee. Haghani stretches that to pay
06 May 2015
Hey guys, RE development guy here, looking for a better general understanding of the global economy. Can anyone recommend a good book on the topic? I wouldn't say that I'm completely without knowledge, but seeking pretty basic info. I regularly read WSJ, but would love a book to shore my info up. Any help? Thanks
16 Dec 2011
Since queueing up a handful of meetings, coffee chats, and quasi-interviews, I've begun to think a lot more about markets/sectors/industries that I wish I knew more about-if anything, just for fun and for the sake of engaging conversation with colleagues or in interviews.
09 Dec 2014
the title is pretty straightforward. I am wondering why such little attention is devoted to the classic "bigger picture", aka macroeconomics on a regional / zone / global scale as opposed to the in depth diligence on all the things relating to the industry (sector demand/supply, competitive dynamics, players, business model, etc). please note that: - I by no means think that the latter is less important, it's a vital component to a make-it-or-break it approach to stock picking - I by no means think that macro is easy (in a 3 months + optics) to understand, predict, gauge in a rsk management
08 Feb 2016
America's next top bubble. Coming soon to your idiot box. Indeed, the large pension funds of America are living in a dream. The dream that 8% annual returns are a reality going forward. If we were to stop and scratch beneath the surface and ask "why were there so many school districts, municipalities, churches, hospitals, etc investing in risky CDOs, MBSs and Swaps?" we may begin to see the ugly truth that is being aggressively ignored by mass media and much of the investing public in regards to pension funds nationwide.
18 Sep 2010
These inflation figures might surprise you. While Bernanke and the boys at the Fed seem most concerned about deflation, the prices of everyday items were off to the races in 2010. Thanks to a very helpful article over at WiseBread, we see that prices of nearly everything we use on a daily basis rose substantially over the past 12 months, some even doubling. You should go to the original article for a more detailed breakdown, but here is a list of the major price moves of 2010. Remember, these are the price movements of the past twelve months alone: Oil - ⇑ 25%Gasoline - ⇑ 24%Corn - ⇑ 53%Sugar
28 Dec 2010
I'm starting an FT position with an AM firm soon. The position requires a strong understanding of macroeconomic news both in the US and around the world. What are some of the news sources or books/magazines you guys read to stay up to date on economic news? I read the usual WSJ and NYTimes. I read Barrons as well. I've heard other sources like the Economist, Financial Times, Morningstar, etc.. are good. What does everyone here read?
29 Nov 2014
Though he is not one of my favorite people in the industry it isn't really possible to doubt the investing acumen of George Soros. Over the years many have made a good bit of money in markets by simply mimicking his strategies. The most recent, however, is hardly worthwhile replicating for most investors. Apparently, George's flagship Quantum Fund is currently has 75% of its assets in cash. Another sign that the even the most heavyweight financial players are unsure of the situation and that August 2011 is beginning to look more and more like August 2008. Hoarding cash is usually a signal of
22 Jul 2011
Sometimes truly significant events slip beneath the cracks and few people notice. Our brains are trained to focus on tight definitions and established topics. Occasionally, the result is that we ignore huge events wrapped up in no frills packages. For instance, when I say that I am getting ready to make a market, you are bound to figure that I am set to quote a bid and an ask. Though this would generally be the correct assumption, however, I would like to alert you guys to a real market maker . An exchange which goes from huge to behemoth.
25 Oct 2010
Today, we finally have a "Weekend Wars" worthy of its title... In spite of the ignorance and ignoring on the part of my dear Keynesians we finally have a practical solution to the Global Financial Crisis... A real war I won't get too deep into the analysis or my own opinion. If you've read my blogs or comments you know that I think that China is a house of cards ready to fall and that North Korea can indeed be...the lead domino.
28 Nov 2010
I saw a couple positions popping up as Country Risk Analyst in Credit Risk at BB banks. I apologise if this is not the right forum - I noticed a few past discussions for Credit Risk had been here, and it wasn't really obvious to me where else it ought to go.
26 Apr 2014
I feel kind of stupid for asking this, but luckily this is an anonymous forum. Over the last few decades the gains of the stock market have far surpassed the gains in gross domestic product. I suppose this can be accounted for by economies of scale and a greater macroeconomic shift towards large business and/or higher profit margins for corporations, but I am a freshman in college and by no means consider my opinion professional. Is this trend sustainable and why have stock market gains far surpassed gains in output over the last few decades?
01 Dec 2010
In a world where everyone wants to be an exporter, he who has the weakest currency is king. And nobody knows this more than China. I came across this article from seeking alpha about the worsening trade situation between China and the states. [quote]"The Chinese government, in an effort to maximize exports and minimize US imports prints their Yuan to buy dollars. This prevents their currency from rising and the dollar from falling. Then it loans those same dollars back to America by buying US debt. At the same time, China: • Puts in place purchasing restrictions • Permits piracy • Delays legitimate items from entering the country
20 Sep 2010
Weekend wars returns this week with a propagandist homage to the "good cop, bad cop" routine. As Jorgé notably summarized a few days ago , it seems as though the winds of change are blowing for Timothy Geithner, but is that really such a bad thing for the U.S. overall? Is it bad for TG himself? One thing I notice from trotting the globe is America's macroeconomic functional independence from the identity cult. The methods with which the smoke and mirrors our corporate and legislative magi puff on the public... always somehow mysteriously work out in the end.
07 Nov 2010
Hello all, I know that this forum is geared towards those seeking a traditional MBA, but I have a bit of a different interest. Would business school make sense for someone seeking a career with a focus on international research? I am interested in international relations, macroeconomics, and finance, so a career in research appears to be on the cutting edge of these three disciplines. Something like country/sovereign risk at a major/central bank, EM/international security research, or macroeconomic analysis at a supranational/ international FI sound incredibly exciting to me. What is the best
15 Jun 2015
I'm interested in getting more perspective on the current overall state of the markets. Anyone have any books/websites that give a detailed history on business cycles/depressions/booms? I've been reading Market Wizards in which a lot of the traders like to get a long-term perspective on where the economy is @ the present time. I'm just wondering how they came to these conclusions..
14 Aug 2011
Well, it's been some months that I browse this resourceful website and I should say, I need some advices. I'm an undergraduated student in a Msc in finance in a target european business school, I am president of the finance association, wrote dozen of financial analysis invested in stock markets. I am a writer for a headhunter (I write articles about finance, economics, etc.) and I already wrote an economics handbook for uni students (vulgarized theoretical concepts -think Black-Scholes//French-Fama//neo-keynesian & neoliberal theories-, level = freshman/sophomore). I've also been accepted as
03 Jan 2020
Hi. I'm looking for advice on how to get into trading, so I'm posting my resume. I'm sort of am in a strange position career-wise, so I really could use some solid no-nonsense talk. Do I have a shot? If yes do you have any advice on how to get in? I've posted my resume everywhere and it's like they don't even bother reading it. The proverbial internet resume blackhole machine. Anyway here it is: https://docs.google.com/document/edit?id=1zEuVDd2… Sorry for any formatting problems, etc. Thanks everyone.
30 Oct 2010
Does anyone have some useful textbooks for relevant info in Rates S&T? Anything along the lines of Macroeconomics/Interest Rates & Bond Math would be great.
20 Jul 2019
brief introduction: I have become more and more accustomed to translate observations about the competitive strategy as well as the general demand/supply/new trends of the underlying industry into both accounting assumptions (revenue/COGS/D&A/Capex/etc) and valuation matters (risk/multiple analysis/reasonable LT growth rate/etc) but I am still failing to put the macroeconomic input in the midst. example: I am trying to put into perspective the taxi market (Uber environment) and trying to gauge market share as well as the kind of contracts Uber can negotiate relative to the frequency users
13 May 2015
Hey, you guys I'm looking for book suggestions that will me help gain a better macroeconomic perspective. I get a copy of the WSJ journal daily and try to read it with breakfast if I have time. However I've been having trouble connecting the dots. Such as relationship of the 10-year note to corporate debt. But every time I read I have more questions than answers and I feel like I'm missing something. Some examples. Tech: Dropbox IPO, Intels possible bid on Qualcom. Snapchat cutting jobs What are the broader implications? Why does this sector seem acquisition-happy at the moment? Credit
19 Mar 2018
According to an article by Bloomberg, the current state of competition among major U.S. firms is not sustainable in the long run:
[quote]According to Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, an economist with France's central bank, the market share of the eight Tech giants like Facebook and Amazon are the tip of the iceberg of a trend toward market concentration. That's good for profits, but a new study says it also risks harming productivity and growth potential in the long run.
21 Feb 2018
This past Friday, Japan became another country to introduce negative interest rates. This occasion marks the first time Japan's central bank set a negative rate in an increasingly desperate attempt to prevent the country from sliding into deflationary territory.
I also thought this was a The yen fell as much as 2.1% following the announcement, hitting 121.33 to the dollar. The Nikkei Stock Average seesawed before closing up 2.8%. Some government bonds saw rates turn more deeply negative. The two- and five-year yield fell to their most negative yet, both hitting as low as 0.085%.
31 Jan 2016
In a normal trading year, December tends to be relatively dull, with markets registering a lower volume and reduced volatility. But this time round it looks rather differed as we seem to be poised for a rather interesting week just before fund managers and real money players head into holiday season! Watch out for these key risk events: ECB - Draghi under pressure to deliver (evident from front end euro yields hovering below negative territory, EURO STOXX breaking above consolidation ranges and EURUSD flirting with the 1.05 handle) Heavily priced in my opinion and unless we get some extreme
01 Dec 2015
HI guys I am new on WSO and as posted in an earlier discussion I am looking for a book/website that describes the conceptual ideas, mechanics and dynamics behind the financial markets. Extensive I know - let me elaborate: You often read in the papers or hear in the news headlines such as: Oil prices have dropped, the interest rate is set to hike, the dollar has depreciated, the german 10Y fell 10 bp etc. all concepts I somewhat understand, but how could all these events on the financial markets for example be linked??
12 Aug 2015
I'm curious as to what the monkeys here think about geopolitical risk. As a background for this post, the Eurasia Group (a global political risk consulting firm whose clients are large financial and other institutions concerned with how politics affect markets) every year releases a "top risks" of the year ahead paper. Here's the link to the one just released: http://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2017 Does anyone here who follows markets and/or does their own investing have a systematic way they factor in these types of risk that are inherently hard to quantify but easy to see in plain
03 Jan 2017
What I mean by that is the evolution of the internet has made everything localized. With all these tech startups, I think we will see a decline in the traditional dominance of mega-corps. Just look at what happened to Hollywood studios and its decline due to the internet. We are already seeing a decline in the finance industry after 2007 and the breakup of a few big banks. Specialized boutiques are definitely on the rise and a large portion of the funding in the tech sector is now being done by local firms on Sand Hill Road.
23 Apr 2014
Considering the fact that DSGE models have a very few, if at all, any applications in financial markets, and rarely used by fin geeks as a tool for forecasting and time series analysis. But renewed interests in financial modelling for short-term quant analysis in forecasting market trends may find this model intuitively handy. Considering the other facts that DSGE models are too often lambasted even in the academic settings, having being termed a flawed model with limited implications, I would be really surprised to know if anyone of you guys in the Wall Street have ever used this technique, or are using it for say, modelling stochastic trends in the short-term? Thanks.
24 Jan 2014