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In my limited research, what I have personally found is that the current real estate market cycle seems to be in a state of hyper supply. It comes to my understanding that a complete cycle happens approximately every sixteen-eighteen years and this happens in four stages: recovery, expansion, hyper supply, and recession. I'm not extremely familiar to whether this applies to the whole market or if this is specifically residential/commercial.

Are my findings on par or is there a better understanding of these cycles?

7 comments 25 Jul 2019 - BusinessBanana

An article on CNBC questioned whether the recent Bitcoin crash could have been a precursor to the market dip last week:

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sees parallels between bitcoin crash and stock market turmoil Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sees parallels between bitcoin crash and stock market turmoil
6:04 PM ET Fri, 9 Feb 2018 | 03:05
A volatile area of the market may have been a harbinger of the stock market's worst week in two years.
1 comment 11 Feb 2018 - DawgStreet

Well... What is everyone's opinion on a potential market crash in 2016? Many think it will happen, while many are skeptical. Berkshire Hathaway has been unloading roughly 99% of their stocks which relate to US Consumer based stocks. Many other Hedge Fund owners are doing the same. The market bubble is insane right now, which inevitably means the bubble will burst soon.

Any bets for a 2016 crash similar to 2008-2009?

6 comments 29 Jul 2015 - Bud Foxx

In a period shorter than a month, the Chinese market has lost over 3.6 trillion in value, which is greater than the GDP of France. Many see this as mimicking the 1929 U.S. stock market crash. Also, this plummeting of equities is beginning to seep into surrounding Asian countries. The cause of this sell off? Simply, millions of average Chinese investor dumped lent funds into the market. The prices, correlating with this buying spree, were then severely over inflated. What happened next can easily be explained as a cycle of panic caused by leverage investing.

The equity markets fell, the Chinese citizens sold off shares to cover these losses on lent money, and the cycle continued on as people panicked. At its peak the extent of leveraged investing amount was around seven hundred billion dollars. The stock market in China contains 80% percent “retail investors”. The U.S.? Around 54%. The massive effect is quite obvious when taking these percentages into consideration. Why are these percentages so vastly different? Last year, the Chinese government encouraged the “Chinese Dream” of a society wealthy and prosperous. Part of this dream was to encourage all citizens to be involved with stock market. “We must deepen economic system reform by centering on the decisive role of the market in allocating resources….” — President Xi Jinping

3 comments 13 Jul 2015 - Smitty4526

Henry Blodget tells the truth in the following video. The difference between the current market crash and 2008 is that the government can't do anything about it this time. Despite what IlliniProgrammer will tell you (not picking on you, dude, really) stocks aren't cheap here unless maybe you're buying utilities. Things are ugly and are looking to get uglier:

13 comments 11 Aug 2011 - Eddie Braverman

Interesting perspective here. Harry Dent, founder of The Dent Method, is predicting a summer rally in the Dow and S&P to the 13,200 and 1,430 levels respectively. From that point, though, he says we're in for a major crash, with the Dow potentially dropping to 3,300. That's right, kids. Not a 3,300-point drop, he's talking about the Dow dropping to 3,300. That's about what it was when I started in 1992. If that happens, I'll be on it like a chicken on a june bug. What do you think? Is Dent insane, or does he have a point?

31 comments 28 Apr 2011 - Eddie Braverman

The May 6 flash crash was a crazy event, the Dow plunged 998 points and stocks like Accenture dropped from $40 to a single cent in the span of minutes. Debate on what may have caused it has been never-ending, from the fat finger theory to shitty trade execution getting the blame for it, but one guy has stepped up and says he knows why it happened, and claims that it WILL happen again.

19 comments 01 Sep 2010 - Jorgé

It looks like we're heading for an ugly open today, so I wanted you to see this interview with Bob Prechter of Elliot Wave International from last Thursday. He contends that the fundamentals of the current market (the emperor has no clothes) are finally catching up with the technicals, and that we're headed for a deep and pronounced bear market. He recommends moving to cash, and I can't say I disagree:

12 comments 25 May 2010 - Eddie Braverman