How to learn more about Cyclicals?
I am looking to learn more about theory and approach to cyclical investing whether it relates to a specific industry like lumber, real estate, industrials, chiemicals.
I've gotten interviews where we start to pivot into discussion on this topic (I have one year of experience as a buyside reseach analyst) and I think I have failed by not being able to contribute must to the discussion.
What are some free or affordable resources(not sellside research) that I can use to learn more about these topics in an academic way. I am also starting to study for the CFA 2, not sure if it covers these topics.
I would appreciate any book or course recommendations that would improve my skills at approaching cyclical stocks.
Read "Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle" by Edward Chancellor. Also learn to recognize peak on trough and vice versa and the derivatives that drive those kinds of situations.
Agree with the above.
you just need experience/reps in the sectors. It’s all about setups, expectations and recognizing peak/trough. With experience you’ll start recognizing inflections in narratives.
I don't have any recommended resources other than the aforementioned Chancellor book.
There are different types of cyclicals. 'Deep' cyclicals are things like upstream oil & gas producers, subprime lenders, homebuilders, marine shipping, airlines, commodity chemicals, certain transport companies, and so forth. Many industrial companies are 'lighter' cyclicals, earnings move up and down with the economic cycle but there is more stability, and likewise with banks. That's not to say the stock prices of the lighter cyclicals don't move around vigorously, they do.
Most investments so far in my career have been in deep cyclicals. What I would say - cyclicals can be counterintuitive and frustrating. Deep cyclicals in particular can be subject to euphoric rises and devastating drawdowns. Cyclicals often look at their cheapest when in fact they are most expensive, and vice versa.
With cyclicals you need to be more attuned to the balance sheet, hidden value, net debt, working capital and the like. Capital expenditure is a major focal point. You find situations where tax loss carryforwards account for 5% of the enterprise value, there might be some unused land hanging around worth another 5%, and a commodity price hedge/fixed rate investment might be rolling off in 18 months' time and see a 7% earnings uplift. You have to look for hidden value.
Ultimately the most reliable way I have found to value deep cyclicals is productive capacity. How many barrels of oil does Exxon produce, what's a reasonable margin on each barrel, what capital expenditure is required to sustain exactly that level of production long term? How many ships does this company have? That's the basis of your valuation. The trick with cyclicals is determining what assumptions are incorporated in the price. Never take an overly simplistic view of things - who would have thought homebuilder DR Horton's stock price chart (pasted below) would look as follows given the trajectory of the Fed?
Interestingly, we may be about to see what happens when generalist/growth/quality investors get involved in a deep cyclical. Look at the copper companies, Freeport McMoran the best example. The copper story is attracting more attention by the day, growing demand matched up against a shortfall in supply. There is half a chance that we see Freeport bid up to a price that guarantees any holder at the top doesn't see the light of day for 15 years. It has happened before, look at the 20-year stock price chart. Investors less familiar with the sector will overestimate the true economics, they will get the copper price right but the cost of production and capital expenditure wrong.
What would you say are the more short term drivers of the narrative / stock for more deep cyclical companies? KPIs related to longer term production capacity?
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