What We Can Learn from The Crash of December 2018, Plus a High Conviction Stock

Since 1950, the period between November and January has delivered the best average S&P 500 returns.

But it doesn’t always work out this way. While it’s historically the best time of year for stocks, markets can do anything. Right now, the market’s “fear gauge” (i.e. CBOE Volatility Index or “VIX”) is at higher levels than during Brexit and the sale of Bear Sterns.

Stocks are clearly on edge, as indexes are rising and falling by 1%-2% seemingly every day. In a lot of ways, the current setup reminds me of December 2018 when the S&P 500 fell 15%:

And there's one overarching theme between these two time periods: the Federal Reserve.

A Random Walk Down "Tapering" Memory Lane

After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve embarked on an unprecedented monetary policy known...