MF lateral move in Europe

Hi,

Keen to hear the fellow monkies' take on the following situation.

I am currently at a strong UMM/MF firm in Europe (think Silver Lake, Warburg...) as a second year associate. I like the job and I am performing well but it seems unlikely I'll have an opportunity to stick around (we've recently promoted a bunch of VPs / principals; likely wont have any spots for male VPs at the time I'd be up for consideration). Dont have any formal indication yet for another year, but I'd calibrate my chances of being allowed to stick around at ~10-15%. If I had my choice, I'd likely prefer this firm over ~90% of the other UMM / MFs (headcount to AuA, the type of deals we work on).

I'd like to stick around in investing and quite enjoy large cap, but would also be open to a newer platform with more upside / risk / responsibility (can be GE, HF also).

More concretely, would be keen to hear how you guys would think between the following options:

1) Stick around at current firm for the remaining ~1.5 years, hustle hard and hope to either secure a VP spot or find a more exiting lateral opportunity (e.g. one of the top European funds like CVC, Cinven, Permira / HF / new platform). Former seems unlikely (and also w/ limited agency from me), latter maybe more feasible?

2) Accept lateral offer I already have with another UMM / MF firm. I perceive this as a material step down vs. where I am currently (think EQT caliber firm) but the offer is in team that is performing well and has much clearer upward trajectory

3) Accept offer with an emerging growth equity shop w/ ~5 investors, ~$1bn AuA and very solid track record (first fund >40% IRR). Materially lower cash comp but access to carry etc.

4) Stick around w/ existing firm for ~1.5 years, go for a MBA and lateral afterwards. Not super keen on MBA (would also be on the older side given I already have a msc) but would be quite interested in recruiting for US opportunities

Obviously very different paths but keen to hear people's thoughts. I want to avoid getting stuck in the "prestige / status"  mindset and hence be unwilling to "trade down", but I also don't want to go to a place where I am not excited.

Thanks!