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Here's some quick and dirty info I pulled up on this deal (all from CoStar/ educated guesses so take with a grain of salt). Using one project 7523 Southlake Pky in Morrow GA as an example. 

Context:

  • Brought from High Street in December 2020, total portfolio size of 10.3MM and $835MM PP.
  • Building is 137,842 SF older product (1988 construction), leased to XPO on a 5-year lease in early 2020. Don't have the exact comp but guessing are $4-4.50 PSF rent and 3% escalations, that's pretty in line with the market at this time (too lazy to find the real comp).   
  • PP allocated to this project of $9MM ($65.29 PSF), debt of $6,104,730 (68% LTC, pretty typical)
    • Implies a going in cap rate of about 6.5%, equity of $2,895,270
    • Replacement cost is probably about $10 above PP, checks that box
  • Fast forward to today, allocated PP is $12.9MM ($93.58 PSF, replacement cost is about $110 or so) sold to Exeter. 
  • Rent is mid to high $4s, 2 years remaining on the lease. Market is probably more like low to mid $8s 
    • Implies exit cap of low 5s for KKR, 2.3x equity multiple for KKR. Exeter's buying for below replacement cost with near term WALT and significantly below market rents. Everyone wins!

Again, quick and dirty, but that's basically how I see it. Hard to not have made money with the insane rent growth we've seen since COVID. 

 

How in the world is the buyer “winning” if they are buying real estate at a yield that is barely above a risk free 10 year treasury?

 

My comment was a little tongue in cheek to be fair, but that ~5 cap for Exeter is based on the current lease rate. With the near-term WALT, there counting on a significant mark to market after the current lease expiration. Ignoring TI's, LC, lease up period, etc. to keep it simple: If the sign a near lease in the space at $8.25 (probably about where it would trade in 2-years, assuming avg. rent growth) that's about an 8.8% YoC. Again, vastly oversimplifying here, but that the basic logic behind a play like this. I personally think we'll see some rent stabilization and lease up periods extend, which could put pressure on the thesis but there does seem to be a decent margin of safety here with how below market rents are.

 

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