Is it time to dump gold?
People say gold is real money while our paper bills are not, because fiat money has no intrinsic value. However, in this article people are dumping gold at a record high now.
Gold has been on a wild ride since the U.S. election, plummeting immediately after Election Day and regaining a bit of ground since the final week of 2016.But despite its recent gains, gold just saw its eighth consecutive week of outflows, according to a recent report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch in which gold was deemed "shunned" by investors. Those eight weeks, according to the report, mark gold's longest outflow streak in three years.
In my opinion, most people hold gold to hedge against market uncertainty. I don't think gold is a bad commodity to buy. It is just that people have found a better place to invest their money, but what do I know about commodities.
Do you think gold is a bad commodity to buy now?
People are ditching gold for equities because they've been on a tear recently, but that won't continue indefinitely. Also factoring in the bond sell-off, people are prepared to leave relative stable assets for more volatile ones, which has further amplified the strength in equities.
Commodities themselves are cyclical, so if anything I believe now would be a good time to buy gold as you would be getting it at a relative low. Not saying that gold will go back up to 1800, but I definitely see it having an upside.
inflationiscoming
Could you explain
Trump is the "inflation president". I feel like we're at the beginning of a new cycle. Gold is selling off, but so are bonds and utilities. By the time we are full and on the way in the cycle, safer assets will catch up, once we see stronger evidence of inflation picking up. So, if anything, you should start buying gold once it gets to the bottom along with utilities.
The time to sell gold was late this summer.
Investors at this time are getting more comfortable with higher risk assets and gold isn't quite risky enough.
My view on gold.
Most commodity markets tend to be driven by a few basic factors which are freight on one side, price on the other side and qualities.
Gold like money, has no fundamental 'intrinsic value' and has substantial extrinsic value, time-value attached (theta). That's why it is so difficult to trade. What this time-value is worth depends on what is the underlying value you desire to store (monetary risk, currency risk). Likely it's what you pay as premium for gold to insure against tale events.
Gold demand tends to be mainly driven by Asia. Currently gold faces exceptional bearish headwinds (monetary policies and U.S fiscal policy). There is no imbalance in physical gold markets. China is at parity with London, you would lose to move physical gold from the West to the East.
For me, the bullish case for Gold is a rally in China and Asia driven by seasonal demand on one-side and lower initial exchange margin on the paper side. You closely manage your stops & entries. Personally I would use a collar, hedge against potentially the downside while retaining some ability to profit from potentially rising gold prices.
Following the Trump Event, institutions have liquidated the equivalent of 12% of the world production, prices have continued to decline, proof that there is not a lot a liquidity in the derivatives markets. Physical Gold has, on the other hand enormous liquidity. Banks lease gold and precious metals for peanuts, means that sophisticated traders or producers can borrow IOUs gold/production to close a position. It's the inverse for most other commodities. .
How does gold not have intrinsic value? Gold can be used for many purposes while fiat currency is only backed by government and cannot be used to say make stuff.
How does gold not have intrinsic value? -For me, Gold would have intrinsic value for the users of 'many purposes' IF there was a physical arbitrage or one can realize a profit buy buying spot, store and selling forward. That is apparently seldom the case.
Additionally, gold has no intrinsic value for a Central Bank (CB).
The Federal Reserve does not define its legal tender as gold (or any other commodity or tangible item) or currency convertible to gold. This analogy explains several aspects of gold trading.
fiat currency is an Asset on a Balance Sheet of a Central Bank, not a Liability, because Federal Reserve Notes pay zero interest and have no maturity date or future payment obligation of any kind. ( true at least CB in the G7 countries)...
If the Federal Reserve was forced to convert Fiat currency into Gold, Gold would have intrinsic value. The total value of gold would be the intrinsic value (spot- Fed Gold Conversion Price) + extrinsic value.
Currently, we trade the only the extrinsic value (time-value, e.g potential value due to appreciation in prices).
-For me, Gold would have intrinsic value for the users of 'many purposes' IF there was a physical arbitrage or one can realize a profit buy buying spot, store and selling forward. That is apparently seldom the case.
Additionally, gold has no intrinsic value for a Central Bank (CB).
The Federal Reserve does not define its legal tender as gold (or any other commodity or tangible item) or currency convertible to gold. This analogy explains several aspects of gold trading.
fiat currency is an Asset on a Balance Sheet of a Central Bank, not a Liability, because Federal Reserve Notes pay zero interest and have no maturity date or future payment obligation of any kind. ( true at least CB in the G7 countries)...
If the Federal Reserve was forced to convert Fiat currency into Gold, Gold would have intrinsic value. The total value of gold would be the intrinsic value (spot- Fed Gold Conversion Price) + extrinsic value.
Currently, we trade the only the extrinsic value (time-value, e.g potential value due to appreciation in prices).
Pic related is from my excel sheet on gold futures in the last 9 days. I've been long (1 lot) throughout them; black cell background indicates stop loss (6 dollars price move in opposite direction) on 2 days. Light green is a profitable trade 6 dollars move on 5 days. Bright green is a major profitable trade (18 dollars price move) on 1 day.
I'd say it has been pretty good so far.
No it isn't the time to dump gold yet.
Gold is something real (a physical element) that is value dense and very expensive/rare to obtain - you have to dig out 30t of rock to get ~1oz of gold in most open pit mining operations these days (I work in a mining principal investing/trading group).
Back in the merchant days it was used as trading collateral in place of an IOU. For example, instead of me promising to pay you back for your Indian spices at some time in the future when I get back from Arabia with some linens, I will give you this valuable metal right now. Then when I return in a few months with some linens, you can pay me back the valuable metal. It becomes a medium of exchange that is more trustworthy than credit IOUs, if not for its physical properties, at the very least for its collateral value in commerce. Yeah, the spice merchant may not have a direct use for the metal, but he'll take that over an IOU because of its rarity and the understanding that it is valuable.
This is where it is useful - when trust erodes in society. Much of our commerce is based on trust. Trust in the fiat currencies, in the paper that is part ownership of a company or a company's debt obligations, trust in the contracts that underly our commercial agreements. If that were to break down, those instruments would have little value (no trust in them) but gold could still be used as a method of trade.
As to whether gold has much use, well at the end of the day once you earn enough money and have your needs met "money" becomes a tool of ego. So of course gold will have value, if only to display one's wealth, prestige, to create jewelry, to look pretty. It's the same reason why art is sold for such exorbitant prices. It becomes an ego thing. This becomes especially apparent if the modern economy shuts down, and only basic products persist. The "wealthy" will turn to gold to differentiate themselves rather than amassing thousands of pounds of commodities they have no use for to store their wealth.
I am no Doomsday proponent, but owning some physical gold would give me some relief that even if the world economy as we know it shifted dramatically (imagine if the world currency, the USD went out of control), I could still conduct business and hustle using some physical. I could approach farm owners, perhaps manufacturing plants, whatever businesses that still exist and perform financial transactions with my physical gold. "If you deliver me those sacks of grain, I'll give you Xoz gold as an IOU, give me a week and I'll take the gold back in exchange for other items of value to you". Then I'd go to another town and trade the grain for tools from the manufacturer. I'd bring the tools back to the farming co-op and get my gold back with a margin of extra grain and tools. Then I'd find a way to sell those items for other goods and hustle as a merchant. I could not do this as easily with my home, stock holdings, or other "assets", and certainly not fiat currency.
So at the end of the day one must ask himself a philosophical question "Do I think the world's current financial system will keep running smoothly with no hiccups over my lifetime?". If so, keep your money in stocks, bonds, currencies, and other asset classes and keep generating wealth. Gold will not be necessary for you. But if you have any doubts based on history, physical may be prudent to have.
I have never understood this belief. Why would I give up something useful for a metal that doesn't really do anything for me? I know that throughout history gold was used as currency but I just don't see the usefulness if we did reach a scenario where paper currency is no longer trusted/valued.
I personally have a bunch of ammo for this situation (kind of joking, kind of serious).
At the very least its an IOU. It's collateral on a promise to fulfill the other's side of a trade when there is a time lag within a transaction. It's sort of like structured commodity finance. Essentially all currencies act as this function. You trade a product or service for an IOU that you can then convert back into other products or services in the future. When society's central banking system breaks down, what will act as your IOU? Read "Debt: The Last 5000 Years" for more on this.
Buy for the sake of diversification.
This whole thread is blasphemous. Gold is going to 2,000 at the end of the year and will be at 5,000 when this cycle is over.
Is Gold Really that Safe? (Originally Posted: 08/05/2016)
With the popularity of gold being termed a ‘safe haven’ and the adoption of the popular ETF GLD, many people are unaware that gold might not be as safe as it appears to be. In a recent study, researchers from Harvard tried to determine if gold was a good hedge during financial crises and macro disasters.
Like all commodities, gold is a good trading vehicle, but prone to boom and bust cycles and is not necessarily always a good replacement for cash or another component of one’s portfolio.
It seems that when people think they’re invested in something safe, but it only makes up 2% of their portfolio, that they think they’ll be better off. Gold is having a great year but it often seems to have good years and bad years.
Has gold become too financialized? What are your thoughts?
Reference
My buddy bought like $70,000 in silver. Literally bars of silver. He hid them in the walls of his house (swear to god) in case of a civil war or martial law, SHTF type event.
No one else I know invests in gold except for the looney tunes.
Lmao
sounds like a doomsday prep guru
Gold seems to be a fixation for preppers, but I don't see the logic in it. For gold to have value in exchange, you need a fairly stable, non-doomsday environment. Bullets, guns and tinned food would be a better investment.
Agreed. If I had $70,000 and wanted to prep for 'trade' in doomsday. I'd go with MRE's, Freezedried foods, and antiobiotics. Economics and Math major who ended up living in a home bought by his mom at 22 not having to work.
A lot of my old buddies from when I was in the military text me if they should just have their portfolio 50-75% gold and they were dead serious too. They see the fear mongering on the news and the mid day commercials of some old retired actor saying that gold is the only safe asset during these times. So its not a good combo, almost predatory.
So the counterargument is that gold serves multiple functions: first as commodity money and second, as an input in industrial manufacturing.
It's no longer employed as a common medium of exchange, but many central banks and monetary authorities still hold it for liquidity purposes. So when economic uncertainty rises, and when there are currency fluctuations, monetary authorities increase their gold holdings and therefore bid up its price.
During periods of economic stability, its liquidity value declines, but this in turn triggers its industrial demand for manufacturing. Additionally, if its price falls to a low enough level, the cost to extract it becomes too great and you get a shock to supply, which also increases its value. This interplay keeps the value of gold within a certain band and therefore makes it less volatile.
The nuts that buy gold because they think the world is going to end really don't influence its price too much - most of the liquidity demand for gold comes from central banks (http://www.businessinsider.com/central-banks-are-loading-up-on-gold-201…).
Considering that gold has barely beaten T-bills in return over a 200 year period. No not really.
For those who want to map the value of gold to valuation techniques - the interesting aspect of gold is that it has no natural rate of decay. Unlike iron (useful but rusts), copper (oxidises), organic goods (rot and waste), gold does not have a natural rate of decay and so is a "permanent" store of value. There are a few interesting conceptual links to financial theory and DCF arising from this.
What are they? I am actually very interested in this subject.
Agree with predilection this sounds very interesting. I'd love to read more about it.
5% allocation max. Whenever the 'cash for gold' stores pop up or an article like this I get nervous.
I like 1-2.5%
5% max even when stocks are at record highs and bond yields are at record lows? As far as I can see, precious metals and cash are some of the cheapest assets out there right now.
No. Gold is a commodity like any other, although speculation can drive it up in bad market environments. The flip side is that governments have been making it more difficult to move gold, limiting its value. It is now illegal to use cash to buy gold bullion in Paris(some exceptions exist), and in Spain if you look like you are wearing an excessive amount of gold jewelry they will pull you aside and weigh it.
As far as all that nonsense about it being "safe" or "true money", that is baloney. Money is nothing more than whatever people accept as a denomonation of value. Sometimes it's gold, sometimes it's paper, and sometimes it's even something weird like "slave girls"(Druidic Ireland) or bags of Rice(Japan). Remember that any currency is only backed by CONFIDENCE: you take the currency because you believe someone else will trade it for other things you want.
What is worth noting is that there are multiple times in history when Gold has NOT been a safe store of value. There were periods of hundreds of years in the history of both Japan and Europe where no money at all was produced or accepted, and this included precious metals. In these environments gold was a commodity with no value other than its pleasant appearance. It also won't help you from a barter perspective because 90%+ of people out there have no idea what a coin is worth, but are trained to value cash money.
Even if this doesn't directly benefit you in IB I still highly recommend trying to learn about topics like this. You aren't always going to be correcting font errors on pitchbooks, and unless you understand how currency and economics works (in the REAL world, not the bullshit you learned from your economics professor) then you are going to be very ill prepared for PE, Hedge Fund, Corporate, etc. jobs that require you to make real, consequential, investment decisions that will succeed or fail depending on real world economic trends.
Odio quia dicta dolores cumque et accusantium. Illo ex dolor aut commodi est.
Voluptates iure earum repellat sapiente eligendi ut quas. Exercitationem rem dolorem vitae quibusdam distinctio sunt magni corporis. Mollitia omnis quia incidunt distinctio quam qui sunt. Est vel ex ea placeat voluptate id.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Ut ut ipsum ea corporis maxime aut quo. Earum officiis facere voluptas consequatur laudantium est ut. Veritatis assumenda voluptates aliquid temporibus.