What will happen next in Europe and us?

Despite the brief respite from the EU-summit, the market seems to be unrattling once again(see the yields of Spanish and Italian 10-year bonds; they are heading toward the 7% level again.)
There were four main concessions from the Germans:
1. The ESM will buy bonds in the primary and secondary market, once a banking supervisor is set in motion, which is expected to be established in second half of 2013.
2. Recapitalization funds will be funneled through the banks directly.
3. Seniority clause will be ditched when the ESM actually buy the bonds.
4. EIB will get more capital to initiate a EUR150b growth program.
Before going into the details, and since I expect WSO members to already know the shortcomings of the result, I won’t delve into those matters. Instead, I would like to offer my thoughts about the future directions of the market, and how we can benefit from it.

Before the EU-summit, there were two major things going on in the market; one was the Greek election, and the other was an expectation of another round of QE.
Many people expected that neither the left-wing nor the right-wing party would be able to form a coalition, making it all too possible for a potential oust of Greece from the EZ. But, before the election date, an illegal poll (in Greek law, a poll before certain days before the election date is banned) result suggested that the right-wing party would be able to form a coalition with a comfortable margin, and because of that, and due to the fact that traders were squaring their positions, the market actually rallied before the election date.
Eventually, that result turned out to be right. The right-wing party won, and Greeks celebrated it as a victory. Most importantly, a threat of a breakup was gone away, leading the markets to surge. But the sanguine market mood dissipated shortly after. Both parties promised to their citizens that the bailout terms are too harsh for them, and there is in no way they could meet the targets imposed by the Troika. Besides, everybody knows that Greece will not make it anyway, despite who gets elected. That realization, combined with weak economic data from the US snapped the gains associated with Greece.
Leading up to the summit, however, there were some expectations growing among investors that maybe the Fed will prop up the stock market by engaging in a new round of QE. Thus, for that period, what would usually be considered as bad news for the market, turned out to be good news for the market; release of any negative economic data was a source of a rally, because that would heighten the possibility of a new stimulus.
But as the time moved closer to the EU-summit, pessimism outweighed optimism. The market looked back at the previous results of the summits, and they found that nothing tangible occurred after any meeting. Market expectations were so low, and the stock market was in a standstill. Threats from the Southern gangsters, requiring the Germans to buy the bonds directly in the market, only made the situation and mood worse. But after the long hours of discussion, Merkel gave in, and accepted the terms that will push Europe toward a further union of nothing.
So, here is where we are.

And to see why those four suggestions will not work, I’ll just leave several links for reference.
1. First suggestion : Below articles mainly point out the insufficient war chests available for ESM and what that implies. This also reminds me of the classic history of Soros's victory over the British governement back in the early 90s.
http://www.voxeu.org/article/why-eu-summit-decisions-may-destabilise-go…
http://www.voxeu.org/article/spread-fixing-scheme-montis-pyrrhic-victory
2. Second suggestion : It would’ve been effective, but look at how quickly the Germans are coming up with second thoughts! What the official is essentially saying is that the sovereigns have to be responsible for the funds injected into their ailing banks. Although not directly factored in as debt to the sovereign’s balance sheet, the guarantee will be counted as a contingent liability, which will make no difference at all, compared with counted as being an outstanding loan.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/06/eurozone-banks-idUSL6E8I68I32…
3. Third suggestion : Why does this look so minor, in light of what I’ve discussed above? This factor seems to be just a technical improvement, without dealing with any fundamental errors in the system.
4. Fourth suggestion : EUR125b, with disbursements of the funds made out in a several year time frame? Good luck!

So, we are once again left with a situation, where nothing is solved. I actually think the market is in a more precarious situation than June, because there are no game changers left : The EU ministers showed that they can’t go any further, ECB is now sub-one percent and clearly indicated that they won’t engage in asset purchases.
To add insult to injury, there is a real concern that ESM will not even pass German’s Supreme Court. And even if the ESM enters into force, their firepower remains too little to combat Spain and Italy’s drowning bond market.

So, is this a great timing to short the market? What would be other factors to consider before positioning ourselves in a short position? Should we worry about uncle Ben's helicopter ride?

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