Analysts at banks from all over the world have been using economic theory (portfolio theory, efficient markets, etc.) to predict who will win the 2018 Fifa World Cup:
A multinational team of analysts at Nomura, the Japanese bank, held out little hope for their company’s home nation. They noted that Japan had recently ejected their coach and “our historical analysis suggests that teams that do, go on to perform poorly”.They also concluded, using portfolio theory and the efficient-markets hypothesis as well as data on the value, form and historical performance of players, that France will beat Spain in the final, with Brazil in third place.
Nonsense, say analysts at UBS, the Swiss bank. Applying the (unspecified) econometric tools that the chief investment office at its wealth-management arm uses to pick stocks, it has Germany most likely to win. The bankers give the current holders a 24 per cent chance of lifting the trophy again.
This is pretty interesting/amusing stuff. Just goes to show how practical economic theory actually is (or not?).
How realistic do you think this is?
Who will win according to your calculations??
What do you think?
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