Will hk surpass singapore in the next few years as a financial hub?
Seems a lot of people may be concerned about the political issue in HK in WSO. This is the underlying reason why SG overtook HK months ago. Btw if you are still considering about China's invasion, then check this: (obviously you don't have any knowledge about this. check wikipedia, read books, learn knowledge, and be aware of how biased those us medias are when reporting about Chinese issues. I don't like talking about politics in a financial forum and I respect your right to speak. But, as a matter of fact, HK was governed by EVERY dynasty in Chinese history till the uk colonist took it away. It was given back to China in 1997 as a SAR.). I'm not a big fan of politics, but seemingly people out of China are pretty unknown of Chinese politics with silly and negative stereotype towards China in ur minds.
Some reasons for people to worry about:
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National security law 国安法--sth. issued by the CPC and applied to HK after the massive protest in 2019. I don't think this will harm that much for people unless you intend to advertise your HK independence. (fun fact: Australia national government condemn you may be considered as crime even if you didn't break the law. As a Chinese lived for 7 years in Australia, I found this hilarious 袋鼠国就是美国的狗腿子呵呵）.
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The over-control to HK by CPC. I think this is the true reason that hurts HK while media like BBC and CNN are still referring everything to NSL. CPC used to apply radical covid policies in 2022, it's not reasonable for CPC to manage and use this policy in HK according to National Law and HongKong law. People are forced to stay home at that time, namely--a huge discouragement for foreign capital as well as bankers. Fortunately the stupid policy was eliminated in HK quickly. Though CPC may be stupid for sometimes, they are still somehow wise about HK issues.
Those factors should've been taken account that HK fell behind SG as a financial hub. You guys as well as foreign capital may only consider about the first reason and value it as a fundamental reason for the change, but the second one may be more important for people living in HK, as this affected them directly.
HK as the only capitalism financial hub in China is capable of attracting and absorbing massive capital in entire China, and many Chinese bankers would head and work there. Think about how many people/how much capital China has, the extent of which would never allow hk to fade out lol.
The covid policy has ended in entire China and banks love capital for a lot. In this way, will HK beat SG and back to its original place again?
(Hong Kong is mainly responsible for China mainland/HK/Macau/Taiwan/part of Southeast Asia capital I guess, and SG may be attractive for more Southeast Asia/oceania/arabic capital. The two hubs seems to be comparable in this way?)
Since when has SG been ever considered to have overtaken Hk?
Your title is presumptuous in and of itself. Take a look and traded capital per day between the 2 cities and you’ll have your answer as to which is the “financial hub”
https://fortune.com/2022/09/23/singapore-hong-kong-place-asia-top-finan…
The same list with Seoul > Tokyo, Washington > Dubai, and Shenzhen > Paris? lol
Perspective: Am an expat who has lived in both Singapore and Hong Kong.
Moved to Hong Kong for work during the dark days of early 2022, fortunately the quarantine wasn't 21 days for me. My sense is that from a business perspective the biggest issue with Hong Kong was the COVID restrictions - Singapore dropped all entry testing in April '22 while we still had to quarantine for 14 days, and the quarantine wasn't ended until September '22. My sense is that the narrative that Singapore has overtaken Hong Kong is similar to the narrative that the National Security Law would destroy Hong Kong as an international financial hub in that it is certainly overblown. Hong Kong is still the gateway to China for foreign capital, has robust capital markets and a banking infrastructure that is very difficult to supplant in one year (as Singapore also had serious covid restrictions/quarantine through 2021). And China has finally dropped all quarantine requirements for inbound travelers, so now it is quite easy to travel into Shenzhen & the rest of the GBA as well as other parts of the Mainland.
As an expat who has lived in both places, even with the current (outdoor masking, etc) and previous covid restrictions (inbound traveler quarantines, random testing, Leave Home Safe contact tracking app, etc) I would still much rather live in Hong Kong. The quality of life is better here (especially now that rents are dropping due to older expats leaving) with more outdoor activities, a much more temperate climate (especially in the winter. Singapore heat is brutal year-round) and overall feels less stuffy and manicured than Singapore. Is also much better from a cost of living standpoint where drinking in Singapore is brutally expensive and there is also no VAT.
Hong Kong certainly isn't perfect, but its location is very hard to beat and it has the infrastructure required to maintain its competitive advantage. Singapore is trying to compete with Hong Kong and is certainly elevating itself as a global city and global financial hub, but my sense is that it is too small (from a population and geographic perspective) to seriously compete with Hong Kong for a while.
exactly
Hong Kong is now defacto China, "One country, two systems" is over. This isn't a good thing when you're trying to attract the best and brightest in the world. The idea of moving to an Orwellian country that disappears any journalist for just questioning the government will scare away many people, and it should. Remember when Jack Ma, in a speech, called the Chinese banking rules and process to be similar to that of an "old people's club".
"Today’s financial system is the legacy of the Industrial Age," he said in his speech. "We must set up a new one for the next generation and young people. We must reform the current system." ~ Jack Ma.
After he said that, he went missing for months, and he used to be a very public figure, where is he now? What happened to him?
There is a reason why people don't want to move to China.
Can’t agree more. This can be detrimental to China’s future
Population is the ultimate problem. The entire system is built on a system of capital that is the FED x 10,000,000 and there is zero productivity growth. The output is growning but productivity isn't. Hell, Mexico has an almost an order of magnitude higher spread between it's cost and its value creation vs China. China has hundreds of rotting pillars that when they snap will take down the entire country. There really isn't anyhting they can do about it. No one wants to willingly go there, most people there don't want to stay, and those who do only want to stay to graft off of the system.
So what happens to Hong Kong when China opens up its financial system? Why would you opt for HK and not Shanghai?
Well the function of HK is to serve as the only capitalism financial center in China. Hk attracts the best capital in entire China (apart from those listed on NYC stock markets). This actually differentiates HK from other Chinese cities like shanghai shenzhen and beijing. If one day the nation agreed to initiate a new capitalism financial harbor to serve whole China and replace HK (obviously this is bad for economical and financial stability), I’ll go and work in that city. HK will be no longer attractive since then.
HK won't surpass Singapore. HK is primarily a unidirectional financial hub. It is money going out. There is bidirectional flows in the sense that companies that need to exchange currency to participate with trade in China use HK as a landing point. However, there isn't bidirectional flows from Chinese citizens. That is the primary indicator of a global financial hub, you must have natives moving capital in both directions. Every Chinese citizen I know is only looking for one thing, how to get their money out of the country.
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